Friday, March 8, 2013

Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Spring training has started in earnest.  The World Baseball Classic is in full swing.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  The AL West is in the books and we are in the middle of the NL East.  So, going based on last year’s standings, we are moving on to the team that finished third in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies:
2012 Record- 81-81  3rd in the NL East

Projected Lineup

C-              Carlos Ruiz
1B-            Ryan Howard
2B-            Chase Utley
SS-            Jimmy Rollins
3B-            Michael Young
LF-            Domonic Brown
CF-            Ben Revere
RF-            Delmon Young

Projected Batting Order

SS-            Jimmy Rollins
3B-            Michael Young
2B-            Chase Utley
1B-            Ryan Howard
RF-            Delmon Young
C-              Carlos Ruiz
CF-            Ben Revere
LF-            Domonic Brown

Starting Rotation:
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan

Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon (closer), Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin, Jeremy Horst, B.J. Rosenberg, Mauricio Robles

The Phillies had a down year last season.  After winning 5 straight NL East titles, the Phillies fell to third place in the division.  An aging roster and injures played a major role in the season’s outcome as the Phillies finally started to show some cracks.  They played strong in the second half to finish the season at 500, but their playoff fate was already sealed.  There is a common belief that the window for this team is closing.  Philly is hoping that it’s still open.  The rest of the division hopes it’s closed.  Either way, the Phillies will have to play like the team they were the previous 5 years (other than last year) if they want to contend with a great Nationals club and an improving Braves club. 

Offensively, Jimmy Rollins was the leader of this club.  His 250 AVG, 23 HR, 68 RBI and 102 R were all team highs.  His 30 SB were second on the club.  And while those are good numbers, 250 is not what you want your top hitter to be hitting.  23 HR, while good for a shortstop, isn’t what you are looking for from your team leader.  Same thing with the 68 RBI.  Other than the 102 R and 30 SB, which are great numbers, Rollins numbers weren’t good enough to be leading the team, and yet they were.  Why?  Because he was one of the few Phillies who stayed healthy.  He led the team in ABs and Games.  John Mayberry, Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton were the only other guys, besides Rollins, to eclipse 120 games.  That’s not exactly a murderers row.  So, you can see how much injuries affected this team.  The good news, is that it’s not necessarily an indictment on this team.  Players weren’t bad, they just couldn’t stay healthy.  Darin Ruf hit 333 with 3 HR and 10 RBI in only 12 games.  He’ll be playing in the outfield this year, splitting time with Domonic Brown and playing in the outfield in the beginning of the season while Delmon Young is hurt.  Catcher Carlos Ruiz, a great defensive catcher his whole career, had a breakout season hitting 325 with 16 HR and 68 RBI, tied for the team lead.  And the injured players played well in limited time.  Chase Utley hit 256 with 11 HR and 45 RBI in a half season.  In a full season that looks like 22 HR, 90 RBI, 22 SB and 96 R.  Elite numbers for a second baseman.  A full season of Ryan Howard would have likely seen 30+ HR and 115 RBI (he had 14 HR and 56 RBI in 71 games).  So their core players still perform at a high level, they just weren’t healthy last year.  That’s the good news.  In addition, they’ve made some solid additions to this team after trading away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to help replenish their exhausted farm system.  They know their team is aging, and they have to plan for the future.  Shipping off those two guys was a start for this team.  In the offseason they added Michael Young from the Rangers and Ben Revere from the Twins.  Young will take over for the departed Placido Polanco at third.  Young hit 271 with 8 HR, 67 RBI and 79 R as a first baseman/DH in Texas last year.  He’ll take over the hot corner in the city of brotherly love and bat second.  He’s a pure hitter who can hit for good AVG and drive in runs.  His power is fading as he gets older, but he’s the perfect number 2 man.  He’ll deliver a plus AVG, drive in runs when he can and score a bunch.  And as a former shortstop he’ll still play a good third base.  I think this was a low risk move for Philly that greatly improves their club for this year.  The other move the Phillies made was to trade for Ben Revere.  Revere will play center field for the Phillies and perhaps leadoff in the future.  But for now he’ll hit a little lower in the order and focus on playing a good defensive center field and swiping some bags when he gets on base.  He hit 294 for Minnesota last year with 40 SB and 70 R.  He did all that in only 124 games.  He’s only played in 254 career games, but in that time has swiped 74 bags and scored 127 R.  He doesn’t have any power (0 career HR to this point), but he should be able to play good defense and provide some speed to the back end of this lineup.  He also provides some youth, along with Domonic Brown and Darin Ruff.  However one of those three outfielders will likely move to the bench when newly signed Delmon Young gets healthy.  Young spent the last few years with the Tigers after decent success in Minnesota and Tampa Bay.  Last season he hit 267 with 18 HR and 74 RBI in a stacked Tigers lineup.  He’ll likely hit 5th or 6th in the Philly lineup, and that ballpark should suit him and his power well.  If he’s healthy, we could see 20+ HR and 80+ RBI.  But with a bad hip, and his off the field issues, that’s a lot to hope for.  Luckily for Philadelphia, he was signed to a low risk, incentive laden contract.  If he can reign in his off-field behavior, then he should be good and provide some good power to this club.  Otherwise, the Phillies will let the 3 kids (Revere, Ruf, Brown) go for it all year in the outfield.

We just took a look at Philly’s offensive production last year.  But this team has lived and died with it’s starting pitching the last few years.  However injuries affected the rotation as much as it affected the offense.  Cole Hamels was one of the only guys who was able to say healthy all year, starting 31 games.  He led the team with 17 Wins, a 3.05 ERA and 216 Ks.  He also had a team leading 215 IP.  He pitched well enough to earn a big extension for big money.  He was an absolute ace last year, one of the best pitchers in the game.  With a 1.12 WHIP and 237 BAA his numbers seem stable.  The BAA looks a little higher than other elite pitchers, but his ERA was a little higher too.  He’s not someone who’s going to lead the league in ERA, but he’s a power pitcher who will rack up the Ks and eat innings.  The only other starter who was able to stay healthy for 30 games was Cliff Lee.  Lee had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.  His peripherals were strong with a 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 207 Ks in 211 IP.  But he was only able to get 6 Wins to go with 9 Losses.  Sometimes strange things happen in baseball.  This just looks to be one of those things.  His 255 BAA was a tad high, but not that high.  He still should have had a winning record and at least 10 Wins with that low ERA and those high K numbers.  If he pitches this season as well as he pitched last season then he should bounce back.  It was truly an odd season for Lee, and I’m sure he looks forward to starting anew in 2013.  Their ace on paper is Roy Halladay, and he was not his dominant self last year.  He only started 25 games due to injury.  And the injury may have affected him even when he was “healthy” as his numbers were not nearly as good as he usually produces.  He went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA.  He only had 132 Ks in 156 IP.  His BAA was 261.  His pitches just didn’t have the movement and effectiveness that we are used to seeing.  He hopes that he’s back to full health and that he will return to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.  At his age, (36 in May), that may be a lot to hope for.  But he’s just too good of a pitcher to play like he did last year.  If he’s back to full health, and pitches as well as he’s used to pitching, then this guy can lead one of the best staffs in baseball back to the postseason.  But that’s a lot to hope for.  With Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton out of the picture, Kyle Kendrick is ready to take back a spot in the Philly starting rotation.  The youngster was the odd man out the last two years, only filling in for injuries and at the end of last year.  But he was better than he’s ever been in his 25 starts last year.  His final 10 starts, he pitched to a 2.43 ERA.  He finally came into camp with a starting job already secured, and the 28 year old isn’t planning on losing it.  The Phillies took a chance on veteran John Lannan in the 5th spot of their rotation.  He only started 6 games in DC last season, but pitched pretty well.  He went 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA.  His record was very fortunate, with that ERA and 1.44 WHIP and 270 BAA.  Those aren’t great numbers.  But it’s pretty close to what he usually delivers.  Lannan is an innings eater who keeps his ERA competitive.  He’s not great, but is a solid pitcher who will keep his team in games.  The bullpen struggled last year, but not at the back end.  Jonathan Papelbon Saved 38 games last year with a 2.44 ERA.  He struck out 92 in 70 innings and turned in a 1.06 WHIP and 216 BAA.  He’s kept his BAA under 230 for 3 straight seasons and his ERA south of 3 for 2 straight years.  He gave up a career high in long balls last year, but he’s somewhat prone to that.  As long as he keeps runners of base, which has never been an issue with him, then he limits the damage while overpowering hitters at the end of games.  The bullpen had issues last year getting to Papelbon.  They addressed that by trading for Mike Adams to set up for Papelbon.  He’s had at least 27 Holds the last 3 years and is one of the premier set up men in the game.  With Adams and Antonio Bastardo in the 7th and 8th the Phillies think they’ll have enough of a bridge to make it to the 9th.

2013 Outlook:

The Phillies are better than a 500 team.  They have a lot of talent, but the worry is that they are aging.  And while players lose a little bit with age, the real concern is that these older players may not be able to stay healthy for a full season.  Their core of Utley, Howard and Rollins was only at 33% for all of last year.  Their ace was injured last year.  Their bullpen couldn’t make it through the middle innings.  But right now, they are all healthy.  If they are healthy, they think they can compete with the Nats and Braves.  Both teams were better last season and got even better in this offseason.  I think a full healthy season in Philly could see this team in a legitimate fight for second place in this division.  But I don’t think we will see a season of full health.  For that reason, I think they will be one of the best third place teams in baseball.  But that won’t be enough to make the playoffs.

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