Well it’s that time.
Spring training is in it’s twilight (vampires are sparkling all over the
Grapefruit and Cactus leagues) and regular season baseball is right around the
corner. And you are wondering what
your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I waited for most of
the free agents to sign. Others
may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team
breakdown as necessary. I started
with the AL West, then moved the NL East and am now tackling the AL Central. And while I ranked teams alphabetically
last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings,
the second NL Central team on my list is the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals:
2012 Record:
88-74 2nd IN NL
Central (Second Wildcard Winner)
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Yadier
Molina
1B- Allen
Craig
2B- Daniel
Descalso
SS- Pete
Kosma
3B- David
Freese
LF- Matt
Holliday
CF- John
Jay
RF- Carlos
Beltran
Projected Batting Order
CF- John
Jay
RF- Carlos
Beltran
LF- Matt
Holliday
1B- Allen
Craig
3B- David
Freese
C- Yadier
Molina
SS- Pete
Kozma
2B- Daniel
Descalso
Starting Rotation:
Adam Wainwright, Jamie Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn,
Shelby Miller
Bullpen:
Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica,
Fernando Salas, Marc Rzepczynski, Trevor Rosenthal
The Cardinals came very close to repeating as NL
Champs. After defeating the Braves
in the single elimination Wildcard game, they overcame a final strike situation
against the Nationals and had a record comeback to move on to the NLCS. They played well there, until the end
when the Giants used a comeback of their own to dispatch of the Redbirds. Still, rookie manager Mike Matheny had
an impressive debut taking a team that lost their best hitter in Albert Pujols,
their Hall of Fame skipper Tony LaRussa, and a spring injury to Chris
Carpenter, which knocked him out for the year. Still, the Cardinals overcame all that and had a hot second
half to capture the second wildcard, despite trailing the Reds in the division
race by 9 games and the Braves in the Wildcard chase by 6 games. The Cardinals know that getting into
the playoffs is the goal, and for back to back years they’ve slipped in to the
final spot of the postseason and played their best baseball in October. However it’s not the way they want to
win. If the second wildcard weren’t
around last season then the defending champs of 2011 wouldn’t have even been
playing in the postseason. And a 9
game deficit is a healthy margin to lose a division by. The Cardinals needed to make some
changes. And they hope they’ve got
the kind of team that can go all the way this year, and lock up a playoff spot
with some room to spare.
This team had a good, but streaky offense last season. They ended up being the number 2 team
in R, but had a 5-39 record in games where they scored 2 runs or less. Manager Mike Matheny knows they need to
be more consistent, and he hopes his improving youngsters can be the difference
while the veterans who played well for his squad, continue to play like they
are in their primes, not a little beyond them. The leading hitter on this team was catcher Yadier Molina,
who set career highs in AVG (315), HR (22) and RBI (76). He’s always been one of the best
defensive catchers in the game, if not the best. He’s been a solid offensive player for years, but has broken
out over the last two seasons, with last year being his best. If he matches last season’s output,
then he’ll be a key force in this Cardinals lineup, as well as one of the best
catchers in baseball. His defense
is superior to McCann and Posey so if he can out-hit or at least come close to
equaling their output then he’ll take over the mantle of best catcher in
baseball. The HR leader on this
club was Carlos Beltran, who re-invigorated his career in St. Louis after a
strong walk year with New York and San Francisco. He was expected to help makeup for the loss of Pujols, but
no one expected him to play this well. There is concern that he is only going to decline as
he gets older, but if he can at least produce some power to go with his plus
AVG, his presence in the 2 hole will be huge, like it was last season. The RBI leader for this club is their
best hitter, Matt Holliday.
Holliday was originally brought to St. Louis to protect Albert Pujols in
the order. He’s now the number 3
hitter of this club, pacing the Cards offensively. He did his job last year, hitting 295 with 29 HR, 102 RBI
and 95 R. With Holliday, Beltran
and Molina, the Cardinals have a strong verteran presence leading the offense. Beyond them, they are looking for young
guys to continue to take over and play like they did last season. It starts at the top of the order with
center fielder John Jay. Jay
played very well, becoming a great defensive center fielder last year and
taking over the leadoff spot in the lineup after Rafael Furcal went down with
an injury. He hit 305 with 70 R
and a team best 19 SBs. He’s
slotted in to be the leadoff man for much, if not all of this season, as Furcal
needs Tommy John surgery.
(P.S. It probably wouldn’t
surprise you to hear that Carlos Beltran was second on this team in SBs, mainly
because of the number of bags he stole, 13. He’s not the fleetest of foot with those surgically repaired
knees and his age, but 13 bags is pretty solid for him. Guess who was third on this team in
stolen bases. Rafael Furcal? Matt Holliday? Nope. It was Yadier Molina with 12 SBs. He was a monster in every facet of the game last year.) The other young building block on this
Cardinals roster had a great season as he was finally able to stay
healthy. That was postseason hero
David Freese, who built on his strong World Series winning effort in 2011 and
had a very good 2012 in 144 games.
He hit 293 with 20 HR, 79 RBI and 70 R. He can hit anywhere in the middle of this lineup and will
likely spend time 5th or 6th, depending on where they
slot Molina. There was one more
major offensive surprise last year, and another bigger surprise, but one that
had less of an impact. We’ll start
with the one that means more, and that was the play of Allen Craig. The Cards knew Craig had this in him
and thought he’d take over as their everyday first baseman eventually, it just
happened a year sooner than anyone expected. Craig hit 307 with 22 HR and 92
RBI. What makes that even more
impressive is the fact that he only played in 119 games. 92 RBI in 119 games. In a full season that equals out to
about 120 RBI. I’ll take that
every time. The other big surprise
in St. Louis was Pete Kozma, who filled in for an injured Rafael Furcal. He only played in 26 games and the post
season, but was great for all that time.
His regular season numbers were 333 with 2 HR and 14 RBI. That’s in less than a quarter of a
season. If he can keep that pace
up he’d have about 10 HR, 60-65 RBI and 10 SBs to go with his solid glove at
short. MVP numbers they are not,
but fantastic output from a backup who is being thrust into everyday duty and
will hit in the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup. It’s a small sample size, but the Cards
like what they have in Kozma. That
leaves them with only one spot in question at that’s at second, where they plan
to let Daniel Descalso hold on to the job unless someone takes it. His glove is solid, but his bat is
bad. However, he also hits 8th,
so that’s a plus. In the end, this
lineup has a ton of talent. If
they can avoid being streaky, I have no reason to think they can’t compete with
Cincinnati in the NL Central.
The area that looks a little shaky coming into this season
is the starting rotation. Adam
Wainwright is back and is an ace.
He wasn’t as good as he was in the past, but he many think he was still
getting his strength back in his first full season after surgery. This is the year that most pitchers
make a full comeback after Tommy John, and Wainwright has Cy Young talent in
him. He wasn’t bad last year, with
a 14-13 record and a team leading 184 Ks.
His 3.94 ERA was a bit high for a number 1 starter, but even higher for
him. The WHIP and BAA show that it
wasn’t a fluke. But if he
continues to get stronger, I have every reason to believe he can return to his
15+ Win, 200 IP/K form with a sub 3.50 ERA. The real issue is the Cardinals’ other ace, Chris Carpenter,
is lost for the season, and possibly for good to nerve irritation in his
shoulder and arm. So the spot of
the number 2 starter falls to Jamie Garcia, who only made 20 starts last
year. But he was solid with a 7-7
record and 3.92 ERA. He’s got
plenty of talent and showed that with a breakout season 2 years ago. If he can stay healthy, he should win
double-digit games pitching to a sub-4 ERA. Jake Westbrook is the number 3 man now, and at this point all
he can be is an innings eater. But
he’s a reliable veteran who lives on groundouts. He was 13-11 last year with 174 IP and a 3.97 ERA. They’ll take that from him every
time. The only difference is this
year they’d love to get 200 innings to go with 30+ starts, not 28. The big surprise last year (the Cards
always seem to have a come out of nowhere candidate starting) was Lance Lynn
who led the staff with 18 Wins. He
went 18-7 in 29 starts with a 3.78 ERA overall for the year. But his second half was very shaky, so
shaky that he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. He was supposed to have to earn it back
this spring, but with the loss of Carpenter he looks like he has to start. Who knows what we’ll get from him. 18 Wins is probably a bit high. But if he can find his first half form,
I’d expect 10-15 to go with an ERA around 4. For the back end of the rotation, that’ll do just fine. So with those 4 set, Carpenter hurt and
Kyle Lohse lost to free agency, I have the last spot in the rotation going to
Shelby Miller. In 6 games (1
start, 5 from the pen) he was 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA. He struck out 16 in 13 IP with a 0.95 WHIP and 184 BAA. While those numbers look great,
remember how small the sample size is.
And also remember that there was only one start in there. Most of his time was spent in the
bullpen. But they like his stuff
and think he’s a future rotation fixture in St. Louis, so he looks like he’ll
get a chance to be the number 5 man.
The good news is, the starters won’t be expected to go 7-9 IP every game
to win. The Cards have a great
bullpen set up for the 2013 season, improved at the trade deadline last year
and with some free agent signings.
Jason Motte tied for the NL lead with 42 Saves to go with his 2.75
ERA. He struck out 86 in 72 IP
while holding opponents to a 191 BAA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s the real deal, one of the best in the senior circuit. However he may start the season on the
DL, missing half of April. So the
rest of the bullpen needs to be strong behind him. That starts with setup man Mitchell Boggs, who had 34 Holds
and a team leading 78 appearances.
He’s not the strikeout pitcher that Motte is, but he did turn in a 1.05
WHIP and 211 BAA. He just gets
batters out. Youngster Trevor
Rosenthal struck out 25 in 22 IP with a 0.93 WHIP and 175 BAA. His fastball averaged about 100
MPH. And the rest of the bullpen
features veterans Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, Marc Rzepcynski and Fernando
Salas, who could all be 7th or 8th inning men elsewhere,
but are only expected to share those jobs here and be matchup specialists. This is one of the strongest aspects of
Mike Matheny’s club.
2013 Prediction:
The Cards have a lot of talent. They have been Wildcard winners the past two years, both
times taking the last available slot to get into the postseason. Then, both times, they advanced to the
NLCS, and won the whole shebang in 2011.
This year, they hope to make it to the postseason again, but would love
to get in with a little room to spare. They have a lot of ground to make up in their division or
even for the first wildcard from last year, but are essentially sending the
same team out there to get it done.
Their bullpen is great and their offense is good and improving as key
players gain experience. But the
starting rotation is weaker.
Carpenter won’t be back and they lost Kylse Lohse to free agency. They need Adam Wainwright to return to
Cy Young form, Jamie Garcia to return to his breakout numbers from a few years
ago, Lance Lynn to pitch like the first half of last year and Westbrook and
Miller to be solid. If they can
pitch, they can win. But with
little starting depth, the injury history of pitchers (especially some of these
guys) and the talent of the Reds, that’s a lot of things to break right for
them. I have them finishing
second, and perhaps in the wildcard picture again. But it’ll be another season of scraping by with no room to
spare in St. Louis.
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