Friday, March 15, 2013

Miami Marlins 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Spring training is in full gear and the WBC is nearing its end.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  I started with the AL West, and have now moved on to the NL East.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last team I’ll tackle in the NL East will be the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins:
2012 Record- 69-93 5th in the NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            Rob Brantley
1B-            Logan Morrison
2B-            Donovan Solano
SS-            Adeiny Hechavarria
3B-            Placido Polanco
LF-            Juan Pierre
CF-            Justin Ruggiano
RF-            Giancarlo Stanton


Projected Batting Order

LF-            Juan Pierre
3B-            Placido Polanco
RF-            Giancarlo Stanton
1B-            Logan Morrison
CF-            Justin Ruggiano
C-            Rob Brantley
2B-            Donovan Solano
SS-            Adeiny Hechavarria

Projected Starting Rotation:
Ricky Nolasco, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc

Projected Bullpen:
Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn, Jon Rauch, Ryan Webb, Chris Hatcher, Evan Reed, Alex Sanabia

Well the Miami Marlins are something.  I could devote an entire blog to their dysfunction.  I’ve gotten into it in the past, here most recently.  And while it’s tempting to continue to talk about just how shameful and disgusting this ownership group is, I’m reminded of the phrase that no press is bad press.  And like the careers of the Kardashians or Paris Hilton, I don’t want to keep the interest in the Marlins alive by continuing to blast them.  They claim they hate it, but people continue to write about them and they continue to steal the spotlight.  So taking a page out of the Miami citizens book, I plan to just ignore the team.  That’s what ownership is doing.  And I don’t want to put more time into breaking down the team than Loria put into building it.  This ownership group doesn’t deserve any more of my time and energy, like it doesn’t deserve the support of the citizens of Miami Dade County.  It’s almost a shame that the World Baseball Classic is happening in Miami, since some portion of the tickets sold has to go to the Lorias.  I wish people stayed away to show major league baseball that that ownership group kills anything it touches, even things that it’s just hosting.  It would take money from them, and perhaps make the MLB lose enough money to make them do something about that sham of a front office the Marlins run.  Alas, it’s unfair to take all good baseball from the innocent Miami fans who just want to see some quality baseball.  They won’t see any once the season starts, so it’ll be nice to let them enjoy the WBC.  They certainly support that more than the Marlins do.  Time Brown wrote a great article about that.  You should check it out.  But for now, let’s talk about the players the Marlins haven’t traded away yet.

It’s tricky to break down this team in the way that I’ve done past teams.  That is mostly because I look at the team leaders from the past year, and usually at least some of them are around for the following season.  That’s not the case this year.  In addition, a lot of these players have little to no major league experience.  I could spend time looking up scouting reports and numbers from the minor leagues on some of these guys, but again, I run into the issue of not wanting to waste my time on a team that is run by a group that apparently has the same philosophy.  It’s not the players’ faults though.  And, if there are any Marlins fans left, it’s not their fault either.  So I’ll take a look at what I can and give my take on what to expect from this team in 2013 (Spoiler Alert:  they’re gonna finish last).  The batting champ of this team was Jose Reyes, who, of course, is now a Toronto Blue Jay (and so it begins).  Only three more players logged 100 games with this team, and one of them is gone.  Of the two that are left, only one is expected to start.  That is Giancarlo Stanton, who’s 290 AVG was the best of the remaining starters on this team (in at least 100 games).  He is also the HR and RBI leader with 37 long balls and 86 RBI.  His 75 R scored is also the tops among returning players, of which there are few.  So, no surprise, he is the offensive leader of this team.  After him, things are grim, and also incredibly raw.  There were some positive signs.  Justin Ruggiano hit 313 in 91 games while cracking 13 HR and swiping 14 bags.  Donovan Solano hit 295 in 93 games.  And Rob Brantley hit 290, though in a much smaller sample size of 31 games.  Logan Morrison is one of the few returning veterans, though he’s still pretty young, and he slugged 11 HR in 93 games.  That came with a 230 AVG, but he’s still improving.  A full season likely gives us 15+ HR.  Adeiny Hechavarria is a highly regarded prospect and the Marlins have also signed two past their prime veterans who will be leaders on this club.  The first is Juan Pierre, who had a very good season in Philly last year.  The veteran hit 307 playing in 130 games, much more than they planned for him to play, while stealing 37 bases.  He was solid in left field, and great at the bottom of the Phillies’ order.  In Miami, he’ll be expected leadoff most likely, and hopefully spark this offense by stealing bases and scoring runs.  He’s got blinding speed, but 100 R is a bit of a stretch because of the team behind him.  But if Stanton and Morrison have good years than a lot of R is a possibility for him, as is 40 SB in a full season and a 280+ AVG.  The other veteran Miami brought in was another former Phillie, Placido Polanco.  Polanco will join Pierre at the top of the order, likely hitting second while manning the hot corner.  He didn’t have a great year last year in an injury-plagued 90 games.  His AVG dropped to 257 and he only drove in 19 while scoring 28 R.  At 38-years old, there is clearly some concern that Polanco may not regain his All Star form, which is why no other teams took a flier on him.  So, left with no other options, Polanco will try to show he’s still got what it takes down in Miami.  He used to be one of the best number 2 hitters in the game; great with the bat, able to move runners over easily, and difficult to strike out.  There’s no speed or pop here, but this is a guy who consistently hit 275+, driving in 60 and scoring 80.  That’s a bit of a long shot this year, but he should be a good presence in the clubhouse and can still glove it at third.  And that’s pretty much all we know about the Marlins offense.  They are relying on two over the hill veterans to spark the offense and get on base so one great player can drive them in and a few youngsters might be able to clean up the rest.  This offense was put together with duct tape and shoestrings and leaves a lot to be desired.

Similar to the offense, players that are no longer playing in Miami-Dade County led this pitching staff.  Mark Buehrle led the Marlins with 13 Wins and a 3.74 ERA in 2012.  Josh Johnson led the staff with 165 Ks.  Both are now playing in Canada.  Ricky Nolasco was second on this team with 12 Wins, but that came with 13 Losses and a 4.48 ERA.  He’s now the ace of this staff.  Henderson Alvarez went 9-13 with a 4.85 ERA in Toronto last year.  That’s not great.  He’s likely the number 2 man on this staff.  Jacob Turner was a highly touted prospect in the Tigers organization.  He joined Miami as a part of the Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante trade.  He went 2-5 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 starts between Detroit and Miami last season, though he pulled his ERA from 8.03 in Detroit down to 3.38 in Miami.  So that’s a good sign, not to mention the 208 BAA and 0.98 WHIP he gave the Marlins.  If he’s finally figured it out, his future looks bright.  Nathan Eovaldi went 4-13 with a 4.30 ERA in 22 games for the Dodgers and Marlins last season.  His high WHIP and BAA make even that mediocre ERA look unsustainable for the man who could be the number 4 starter in Miami.  Wade LeBlanc, the projected number 5 man, went 2-5 in 9 starts and 16 relief appearances for Miami last season with a 3.67 ERA.  He looks like one of their better pitchers.  Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz this rotation is not.  Nor is it Buerhle, Johnson and Sanchez.  And that’s what really irks Marlins fans.  Both of them.  This bullpen doesn’t look much better.  Steve Cishek is the closer and earned 15 Saves last season with a 2.69 ERA.  He took over for a struggling Heath Bell and played well enough to keep the job, which couldn’t have been too hard on this team.  Mike Dunn led the team with 18 Holds, but struggled with a 4.81 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 283 BAA.  Not a great season for the man who looks like he’s going to be Miami’s setup guy.  Perhaps the 8th inning setup duties will fall to newly signed Jon Rauch, who was better than his record in New York for the Mets (3-7 with a 3.59 ERA, but also a 0.99 WHIP and 209 BAA).  The rest of the bullpen is young and unproven, and just looking to get major league experience.  As bad as the offense looked, this pitching staff looks even worse, in the greenest sort of way. 

2013 Prediction:

The first season of the Miami Marlins was an unmitigated disaster.  Whether you call them the Miami Marlins or the Florida Marlins, a rose by any other name couldn’t smell as shameful.  The team that made a ton of headlines this offseason is expected to struggle mightily.  None of the headlines were positive, and the current players were never involved in them.  The ownership group made headlines for taking the worst team in the NL East, and making them favorites to be the worst team in the NL.  Jeffrey Loria cemented his reputation as the worst owner in baseball and now has to be considered among the worst in all sports.  He’s certainly one of the most disliked, and the lack of fans coming to Marlins stadium helps attest to that.  No one expects anything of this club.  And they shouldn’t.  The players and manager Mike Redmond will use that for motivation, but the simple fact is, anyone who expects that Marlins to contend in any way knows nothing about baseball or is possibly related to David Samson.  Even when they had a much better group of players last year, I didn’t think they’d contend (my prediction was pretty close) and this ownership group had a lot to do with that.  The players that take the field for the Marlins are either too old (Polanco, Pierr), too young (everyone else not named Stanton, Morrison or Nolasco) or on the trading block (Stanton, Morrison and Nolasco).  It’s like 2/3 of a Goldilocks tale, except that no one is just right.  It’s all-wrong in Miami, and I expect their record, and attendance to reflect that this year as they finish in last in the standings and in the hearts of their countrymen.  

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