Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Cincinnati Reds Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Spring training is in its twilight and the 2013 season is about to start.   And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then went to the NL East, and now I’m going to start putting out my NL Central breakdowns.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the first NL Central team I’ll examine will be the Cincinnati Reds.


Cincinnati Reds:
2012 Record:  97-65;  First in the NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

C-              Ryan Hannigan
1B-            Joey Votto
2B-            Brandon Phillips
SS-            Zack Cosart
3B-            Todd Frazier
LF-            Ryan Ludwick
CF-            Shin Soo Choo
RF-            Jay Bruce

Projected Batting Order

CF-            Shin Shoo Choo
2B-            Brandon Phillips
1B-            Joey Votto
RF-            Jay Bruce
LF-            Ryan Ludwick
3B-            Todd Frazier
SS-            Zack Cosart
C-              Ryan Hannigan


Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake

Bullpen:
Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Jose Arrendondo, Sam LeCure, Manny Parra, Nick Masset, Lgan Ondrusek


The Reds had a strong bounce back year after underperforming in 2011.  They were the NL Central Champs in 2010, and were expected to win the title again in 2011, but didn’t.  However last year they returned to the top of their division, a spot that they have the talent and ability to stay in for the next few years.  They may have over performed in 2010, but continued to improve each year, becoming the most talented team in the division.  They have a star in Brandon Phillips, an MVP Joey Votto, and a talented group of guys behind them.  Jay Bruce came into his own, Ryan Ludwick played very well last season and was re-signed, Todd Frazier had a fantastic rookie year, and their pitching staff looks fantastic with Cueto playing at a Cy Young level, Mat Latos pitching like an All Star, Bronson Arroyo pitching like a dependable veteran, and youngsters Mike Leake and Homer Bailey providing solid innings at the back end of the rotation.  And now they have extra depth with Aroldis Chapman, the star closer possibly making some starts this year.  With an abundance of starters, a solid bullpen and an elite offense that continues to improve, this team has to be considered one of the best in the league and a solid favorite in the NL Central.

The Reds were great offensively, even without their best hitter, Joey Votto, for about 50 games.  Had he had a full season, his 337 AVG would have led the team.  He only had 14 HR and 56 RBI (roughly on pace for 20 HR and 75 RBI over a full year), but a lot of those games he was able to play in had him fighting injury.  I think a full season of Votto will see him return to MVP like numbers with 300+ AVG, 25+ HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ R and 110+ BBs.  He could also approach 10 SBs.  He’s possibly the best hitter in the NL Central, right up there with Ryan Braun.  The actual team-batting champ was second baseman Brandon Phillips.  He hit 281 with 18 HR, 77 RBI, 15 SB and 86 R.  Phillips is one of my favorite players in the game, as he has plus power and speed to go with a good glove.  He can hit anywhere from first to fifth in the order, though he spent most of his time last year at cleanup.  He’s consistently good, though never an “elite” player.  But, I’ll take year after year of consistently good performances rather than “elite” play one year followed by a terrible crash in production.  You can pretty much pen him in for 275, 15+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+ R and 15+ SB.  Some of that depends on where he hits in the lineup, but that’s great output for anyone, especially a second baseman.  The HR leader for this team was Jay Bruce, who also led the team with 155 games played.  He plays a very good right field, and led the Reds with his 34 HR and 99 RBI.  He also has surprising speed for a power hitter, swiping 9 bags.  His 252 AVG isn’t great, but if he’s going to be a pure power hitter, you’ll take 250.  He strikes out a ton, and his walk rate isn’t quite as high as you’d like from a slugger, but it’s hard to be upset with his production.  He’s slotted to hit in the middle of this order again, and 30+ HR in that park with Votto and Phillips in front of him is almost a lock.  He should also easily crack 90 RBI again, if he stays healthy.  SS Zack Cosart was also able to slug 15 HR.  You don’t expect that much power from middle infielders, and so the Reds having 2 that can hit 15+ is great.  His AVG wasn’t great at 238 and he doesn’t have a lot of speed (4 SB).  But hitting at the bottom of that lineup, they’ll take that AVG with his power cleaning up after the big guys, though 35 RBI to go with 15 HR is not good.  He needs to improve hitting with runners in scoring position.  The big find last season was Todd Frazier who hit 273 as a rookie with 19 HR, 67 RBI and 55 R.  He filled in well for Votto while he was hurt, and will take over for the retired Scott Rolen at the hot corner.  This team is excellent at hitting the long ball.  We’ve talked about Frazier, Votto, Phillips and Cosart, not to mention team leader Jay Bruce.  The man with the second most HR on the team was Ryan Ludwick who slugged 26 HR to go with a 275 AVG and 80 RBI.  He’s back for another season at Great American Ballpark.  In fact, most of this team is going to be the same.  The one big change was the loss of Drew Stubbs and addition of Shin Soo Choo.  He’s very similar to Brandon Phillips as a player who does a lot of things well, but nothing at an “elite” level.  But his consistent, strong play makes him a good fit for this team.  The risk is that he’s hitting leadoff for the first time ever, and playing center field for the first time ever.  I think it’s a big risk, but one that GM Walt Jocketty and Cincinnati needed to make.  Choo is a good defensive right fielder and should play a solid center field in the Great American Ballpark, which isn’t too spacious.  And while Choo isn’t a leadoff hitter, that has been a black hole in the Queens City for the last few years, and Choo will be better than anyone else in that role.  Last year Choo hit 283 with 16 HR, 67 RBI, 88 R and 21 SB.  His career 381 OBP makes the Reds think he’ll be successful hitting leadoff, but we won’t know until he tries.  I think it’ll work, and even if he’s not the best leadoff man in the game, this team hits enough HR to make it a moot point.  The Reds have someone capable of 15+ HR at every position but catcher, where Ryan Hannigan hits for a pretty high AVG (274 last year, 275 career).  The Great American Ballpark is a great park for power, and that’s the kind of roster that Jocketty has put together.  The Reds should have one of the best offenses in baseball again this year.  That is the key for them to contend, and I see no reason for them to not win the division this year.

While this offense has been very good, even before their stars reached their potential, this pitching staff has needed work.  But now they have a legitimate Cy Young candidate for an ace and a very strong number 2 pitcher to pair with a wily veteran in the third spot and two youngsters and a third young flamethrower to fill out the rest of the starting crew.  Once their pitching staff was average (and now it’s a bit better than average) this team got truly scary.  Johnny Cueto is the number 1 on this team, leading the Reds with 19 Wins, a 2.78 ERA and 217 IP.  He didn’t develop into the strikeout pitcher we all thought he’d be, but 170 Ks isn’t bad.  He is likely due for some regression following a 252 BAA, but that’s not that bad, and his 1.17 WHIP was good.  He doesn’t put people on.  And that’s really important when you pitch in Cincinnati.  And while guys are able to get hits off of him, he doesn’t beat himself and is able to strand runners.  That’s how he wins.  If he keeps that up, doesn’t walk guys and gets offensive support (never a problem for the Reds) he could win 15+ again with an ERA of around 3.  200 IP and 150+ Ks should be a cinch.  The number 2 man on this staff is Mat Latos, who went a 14-4 in his first season in Ohio.  He was second on the team with 209 IP and had a team leading 185 Ks.  His peripherals looked even better with a 230 BAA and 1.16 WHIP.  His 3.48 ERA was pretty good and with some better luck we could see that ERA drop and that win total climb a bit.  He’s good enough to be an ace and I think he should pitch at least as well as he did last year, if not better.  I’m plugging him in for around 15 Wins, 200+ IP, 170+ Ks and an ERA of about 3.25.  That’s super from a man who’s not considered your ace.  There was a slight drop off after those two, but not a lot.  Cincinnati had one of the best starting rotations in the game.  They had 4 starters surpass 200 IP and all 4 of those guys had sub-4 ERAs.  That’s huge.  None of these guys are going to win Cy Young awards (likely, possibly Cueto and maybe Latos has an outside shot), but having a third and fourth starter who can log that many innings and keep an ERA under 4 is phenomenal.  It’s the depth that’s impressive.  Arroyo was the veteran whose tutelage is invaluable to the young pitches.  Homer Bailey was the quick rising star who has cemented his spot in the rotation.  Arroyo was 12-10 with a 3.74 ERA and Bailey was 13-10 with a 3.64 ERA.  Both had 208+ IP.  Neither one had incredible peripherals (1.20+ WHIP for both and BAA over 250) but that’s pretty average.  And when we are talking about third and fourth starters you have to be happy with that, especially when those pitchers stranded runners well enough to keep their ERAs under 4.  The one weak spot in this rotation was the number 5 starter, but that’s expected to be the weakest part of your rotation.  Mike Leake made the most rapid rise to the majors, and didn’t pitch as well as his peers.  He went 8-9 with a 4.58 ERA with well above average numbers in the WHIP (1.35) and BAA (287) categories. But, again, we are looking at a 5th starter.  This guy could be a numbers 4 man on other teams.  And now he’s got competition to keep his job from Aroldis Chapman, who was an elite closer last year.  When Chapman joined the Reds and signed that big contract, it was with the expectation that he’d be a starter.  He started out as a lefty specialist from the bullpen, then a set up man and then a closer last year.  And that’s where he excelled.  He notched 38 Saves with a 1.51 ERA last season while striking out 122 in only 71 IP.  His WHIP was 0.81, his BAA was 141 and his fastball touched 105 MPH.  Those are video game numbers.  We’ll see how he does as a starter.  He’s got the velocity (expect a mid-90s fastball from him starting) and the mindset.  Recently we’ve had mixed success with relievers being moved into the starting rotation.  Some succeed (Kris Medlen[though he was always kind of a starter] Chris Sale, Alexi Ogando) and some don’t (Netali Feliz).  But if he can stay healthy I think he could lead this team in strikeouts, perhaps notching 200 in about 170 IP.  It’s hard to guess his ERA or know how successful he’ll be.  If this works out, the Reds will have 6 solid starters, and some trade bait to go after a bat or bullpen piece if necessary at the trade deadline, though this team really doesn’t have any weak spots.  If it doesn’t, then Chapman will go back to the 9th, where he is elite.  We are waiting to see what the plan will be, though Chapman recently came out and said he’d like to close, reversing his position from a few years ago.  Either way, I’d have him start later in the year, taking a Kris Medlen approach and begin the season in the bullpen, possibly closing.  Speaking of the bullpen, we are going to see Jonathan Broxton return to the 9th after a good half season in Kansas City.  He Saved 23 games for the Royals before joining the Reds at the trade deadline and notching 10 Holds and 4 more Saves.  His combined ERA was 2.48 and he had a healthy 45 Ks in 53 IP.  If he’s the same guy who was an All Star in LA, this will be a coup.  But, as it is, he should be in line for 30-40 Saves and I’d expect an ERA south of 3.  He leads a bullpen that also features Sean Marshall to setup and Jose Arrendondo to lock down the 7th.  It’s not the best bullpen on the planet, but it’s solid.

2013 Prediction:

The Reds were far and away the best team in their division last season.  They should be better this year with a full season of Jonathan Broxton, the addition of Shin Soo Choo and the Aroldis Chapman starter experiment.  This team can score runs with the best of them, and they have a much better group of starters than people realize.  2 are All Star Caliber, 2 more pitch like other teams number 2 starters, and the last spot has 2 options in a flamethrower from the bullpen and a youngster with experience and a solid stat line.  There is literally no weakness in this group.  Their talent, combined with the relative weakness of their division, makes them one of the strongest bets to win a division in baseball.  Things are looking good for the Cincinnati Reds.

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