Well it’s that time.
Spring training is in its twilight and the 2013 season is about to
start. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I started with the AL
West, then went to the NL East, and now I’m going to start putting out my NL
Central breakdowns. And while I
ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last
season’s standings. Using last season’s
final standings, the first NL Central team I’ll examine will be the Cincinnati
Reds.
Cincinnati Reds:
2012 Record:
97-65; First in the NL
Central
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Ryan
Hannigan
1B- Joey
Votto
2B- Brandon
Phillips
SS- Zack
Cosart
3B- Todd
Frazier
LF- Ryan
Ludwick
CF- Shin
Soo Choo
RF- Jay
Bruce
Projected Batting Order
CF- Shin
Shoo Choo
2B- Brandon
Phillips
1B- Joey
Votto
RF- Jay
Bruce
LF- Ryan
Ludwick
3B- Todd
Frazier
SS- Zack
Cosart
C- Ryan
Hannigan
Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman,
Homer Bailey, Mike Leake
Bullpen:
Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Jose Arrendondo, Sam
LeCure, Manny Parra, Nick Masset, Lgan Ondrusek
The Reds had a strong bounce back year after underperforming
in 2011. They were the NL Central
Champs in 2010, and were expected to win the title again in 2011, but
didn’t. However last year they
returned to the top of their division, a spot that they have the talent and
ability to stay in for the next few years. They may have over performed in 2010, but continued to
improve each year, becoming the most talented team in the division. They have a star in Brandon Phillips, an
MVP Joey Votto, and a talented group of guys behind them. Jay Bruce came into his own, Ryan Ludwick
played very well last season and was re-signed, Todd Frazier had a fantastic
rookie year, and their pitching staff looks fantastic with Cueto playing at a
Cy Young level, Mat Latos pitching like an All Star, Bronson Arroyo pitching
like a dependable veteran, and youngsters Mike Leake and Homer Bailey providing
solid innings at the back end of the rotation. And now they have extra depth with Aroldis Chapman, the star
closer possibly making some starts this year. With an abundance of starters, a solid bullpen and an elite
offense that continues to improve, this team has to be considered one of the
best in the league and a solid favorite in the NL Central.
The Reds were great offensively, even without their best
hitter, Joey Votto, for about 50 games.
Had he had a full season, his 337 AVG would have led the team. He only had 14 HR and 56 RBI (roughly
on pace for 20 HR and 75 RBI over a full year), but a lot of those games he was
able to play in had him fighting injury.
I think a full season of Votto will see him return to MVP like numbers
with 300+ AVG, 25+ HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ R and 110+ BBs. He could also approach 10 SBs. He’s possibly the best hitter in the NL Central, right up
there with Ryan Braun. The actual team-batting
champ was second baseman Brandon Phillips. He hit 281 with 18 HR, 77 RBI, 15 SB and 86 R. Phillips is one of my favorite players
in the game, as he has plus power and speed to go with a good glove. He can hit anywhere from first to fifth
in the order, though he spent most of his time last year at cleanup. He’s consistently good, though never an
“elite” player. But, I’ll take
year after year of consistently good performances rather than “elite” play one
year followed by a terrible crash in production. You can pretty much pen him in for 275, 15+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+
R and 15+ SB. Some of that depends
on where he hits in the lineup, but that’s great output for anyone, especially
a second baseman. The HR leader
for this team was Jay Bruce, who also led the team with 155 games played. He plays a very good right field, and
led the Reds with his 34 HR and 99 RBI.
He also has surprising speed for a power hitter, swiping 9 bags. His 252 AVG isn’t great, but if he’s
going to be a pure power hitter, you’ll take 250. He strikes out a ton, and his walk rate isn’t quite as high
as you’d like from a slugger, but it’s hard to be upset with his
production. He’s slotted to hit in
the middle of this order again, and 30+ HR in that park with Votto and Phillips
in front of him is almost a lock.
He should also easily crack 90 RBI again, if he stays healthy. SS Zack Cosart was also able to slug 15
HR. You don’t expect that much
power from middle infielders, and so the Reds having 2 that can hit 15+ is
great. His AVG wasn’t great at 238
and he doesn’t have a lot of speed (4 SB). But hitting at the bottom of that lineup, they’ll take that
AVG with his power cleaning up after the big guys, though 35 RBI to go with 15
HR is not good. He needs to
improve hitting with runners in scoring position. The big find last season was Todd Frazier who hit 273 as a
rookie with 19 HR, 67 RBI and 55 R.
He filled in well for Votto while he was hurt, and will take over for
the retired Scott Rolen at the hot corner. This team is excellent at hitting the long ball. We’ve talked about Frazier, Votto,
Phillips and Cosart, not to mention team leader Jay Bruce. The man with the second most HR on the
team was Ryan Ludwick who slugged 26 HR to go with a 275 AVG and 80 RBI. He’s back for another season at Great
American Ballpark. In fact, most
of this team is going to be the same.
The one big change was the loss of Drew Stubbs and addition of Shin Soo
Choo. He’s very similar to Brandon
Phillips as a player who does a lot of things well, but nothing at an “elite” level. But his consistent, strong play makes
him a good fit for this team. The
risk is that he’s hitting leadoff for the first time ever, and playing center
field for the first time ever. I
think it’s a big risk, but one that GM Walt Jocketty and Cincinnati needed to
make. Choo is a good defensive
right fielder and should play a solid center field in the Great American
Ballpark, which isn’t too spacious.
And while Choo isn’t a leadoff hitter, that has been a black hole in the
Queens City for the last few years, and Choo will be better than anyone else in
that role. Last year Choo hit 283
with 16 HR, 67 RBI, 88 R and 21 SB.
His career 381 OBP makes the Reds think he’ll be successful hitting
leadoff, but we won’t know until he tries. I think it’ll work, and even if he’s not the best leadoff
man in the game, this team hits enough HR to make it a moot point. The Reds have someone capable of 15+ HR
at every position but catcher, where Ryan Hannigan hits for a pretty high AVG
(274 last year, 275 career). The
Great American Ballpark is a great park for power, and that’s the kind of
roster that Jocketty has put together.
The Reds should have one of the best offenses in baseball again this
year. That is the key for them to
contend, and I see no reason for them to not win the division this year.
While this offense has been very good, even before their
stars reached their potential, this pitching staff has needed work. But now they have a legitimate Cy Young
candidate for an ace and a very strong number 2 pitcher to pair with a wily
veteran in the third spot and two youngsters and a third young flamethrower to
fill out the rest of the starting crew.
Once their pitching staff was average (and now it’s a bit better than
average) this team got truly scary.
Johnny Cueto is the number 1 on this team, leading the Reds with 19
Wins, a 2.78 ERA and 217 IP. He
didn’t develop into the strikeout pitcher we all thought he’d be, but 170 Ks
isn’t bad. He is likely due for
some regression following a 252 BAA, but that’s not that bad, and his 1.17 WHIP
was good. He doesn’t put people
on. And that’s really important
when you pitch in Cincinnati. And
while guys are able to get hits off of him, he doesn’t beat himself and is able
to strand runners. That’s how he
wins. If he keeps that up, doesn’t
walk guys and gets offensive support (never a problem for the Reds) he could
win 15+ again with an ERA of around 3.
200 IP and 150+ Ks should be a cinch. The number 2 man on this staff is Mat Latos, who went a 14-4
in his first season in Ohio. He
was second on the team with 209 IP and had a team leading 185 Ks. His peripherals looked even better with
a 230 BAA and 1.16 WHIP. His 3.48
ERA was pretty good and with some better luck we could see that ERA drop and
that win total climb a bit. He’s
good enough to be an ace and I think he should pitch at least as well as he did
last year, if not better. I’m
plugging him in for around 15 Wins, 200+ IP, 170+ Ks and an ERA of about
3.25. That’s super from a man
who’s not considered your ace.
There was a slight drop off after those two, but not a lot. Cincinnati had one of the best starting
rotations in the game. They had 4
starters surpass 200 IP and all 4 of those guys had sub-4 ERAs. That’s huge. None of these guys are going to win Cy Young awards (likely,
possibly Cueto and maybe Latos has an outside shot), but having a third and
fourth starter who can log that many innings and keep an ERA under 4 is
phenomenal. It’s the depth that’s
impressive. Arroyo was the veteran
whose tutelage is invaluable to the young pitches. Homer Bailey was the quick rising star who has cemented his
spot in the rotation. Arroyo was
12-10 with a 3.74 ERA and Bailey was 13-10 with a 3.64 ERA. Both had 208+ IP. Neither one had incredible peripherals (1.20+
WHIP for both and BAA over 250) but that’s pretty average. And when we are talking about third and
fourth starters you have to be happy with that, especially when those pitchers
stranded runners well enough to keep their ERAs under 4. The one weak spot in this rotation was
the number 5 starter, but that’s expected to be the weakest part of your
rotation. Mike Leake made the most
rapid rise to the majors, and didn’t pitch as well as his peers. He went 8-9 with a 4.58 ERA with well
above average numbers in the WHIP (1.35) and BAA (287) categories. But, again,
we are looking at a 5th starter. This guy could be a numbers 4 man on other teams. And now he’s got competition to keep
his job from Aroldis Chapman, who was an elite closer last year. When Chapman joined the Reds and signed
that big contract, it was with the expectation that he’d be a starter. He started out as a lefty specialist
from the bullpen, then a set up man and then a closer last year. And that’s where he excelled. He notched 38 Saves with a 1.51 ERA
last season while striking out 122 in only 71 IP. His WHIP was 0.81, his BAA was 141 and his fastball touched
105 MPH. Those are video game numbers. We’ll see how he does as a starter. He’s got the velocity (expect a mid-90s
fastball from him starting) and the mindset. Recently we’ve had mixed success with relievers being moved
into the starting rotation. Some
succeed (Kris Medlen[though he was always kind of a starter] Chris Sale, Alexi
Ogando) and some don’t (Netali Feliz).
But if he can stay healthy I think he could lead this team in
strikeouts, perhaps notching 200 in about 170 IP. It’s hard to guess his ERA or know how successful he’ll
be. If this works out, the Reds
will have 6 solid starters, and some trade bait to go after a bat or bullpen
piece if necessary at the trade deadline, though this team really doesn’t have
any weak spots. If it doesn’t,
then Chapman will go back to the 9th, where he is elite. We are waiting to see what the plan
will be, though Chapman recently came out and said he’d like to close,
reversing his position from a few years ago. Either way, I’d have him start later in the year, taking a
Kris Medlen approach and begin the season in the bullpen, possibly closing. Speaking of the bullpen, we are going
to see Jonathan Broxton return to the 9th after a good half season
in Kansas City. He Saved 23 games
for the Royals before joining the Reds at the trade deadline and notching 10
Holds and 4 more Saves. His
combined ERA was 2.48 and he had a healthy 45 Ks in 53 IP. If he’s the same guy who was an All
Star in LA, this will be a coup. But,
as it is, he should be in line for 30-40 Saves and I’d expect an ERA south of
3. He leads a bullpen that also
features Sean Marshall to setup and Jose Arrendondo to lock down the 7th. It’s not the best bullpen on the
planet, but it’s solid.
2013 Prediction:
The Reds were far and away the best team in their division
last season. They should be better
this year with a full season of Jonathan Broxton, the addition of Shin Soo Choo
and the Aroldis Chapman starter experiment. This team can score runs with the best of them, and they
have a much better group of starters than people realize. 2 are All Star Caliber, 2 more pitch
like other teams number 2 starters, and the last spot has 2 options in a
flamethrower from the bullpen and a youngster with experience and a solid stat
line. There is literally no
weakness in this group. Their
talent, combined with the relative weakness of their division, makes them one
of the strongest bets to win a division in baseball. Things are looking good for the Cincinnati Reds.
No comments:
Post a Comment