Minnesota Twins 2015 Team Breakdown

Projected Division Finish

1.              Kansas City Royals

2.              Detroit Tigers

3.              Chicago White Sox

4.              Cleveland Indians

5.              Minnesota Twins

 

Minnesota Twins

2014 Finish:              70-92 (Fifth Place)

Projected Batting Order

SS        Danny Santana

2B       Brian Dozier

1B       Joe Mauer

RF        Torii Hunter

DH       Kennys Vargas

3B       Trevor Plouffe

LF        Oswaldo Arcia

C          Kurt Suzuki

CF        Jordan Schaffer

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

RHP                 Phil Hughes

RHP                 Ervin Santana/Mike Pelfrey

RHP                 Ricky Nolasco

RHP                 Kyle Gibson

LHP                 Tommy Milone

CLOSER          Glen Perkins

The Twins are in the middle of a re-build, even if they didn’t realize it until after the rest of the sport.  The current major league club hasn’t played well in recent years with a surprisingly average offense, bad defense and woeful pitching.  The Twins were forced to make some changes and fired Ron Gardenhire after 13 very good years.  No one thinks he’s a bad manager, but the youngsters in that clubhouse didn’t mesh with him.

I don’t like this team this season.  They are still re-building and will really miss Gardenhire, one of the better managers in the game.  Add to that a ballpark that smothers offense and the lack of fans (shockingly no one wants to sit outdoors in Minnesota’s cold spring weather to watch bad baseball) and this will be a long season in the Twin Cities.

Offense/Defense:

This offense was actually better than people realize.  Most thought they were going to be among the worst in the league.  They were actually fairly average ranking 5^th in Runs and 6^th in Hits.  For most teams, that’s not something to write home about (remember this is 5^th out of 15) but it’s a big improvement for the Twins.

This offense is built around Joe Mauer.  He is the hometown boy who has won a batting title and signed a big contract to stay in the area.  But after the ink dried, the Twins started experiencing buyer’s regret.  Mauer has never hit for power, despite his size and has no speed.  He is becoming a base clogger.  As a catcher, having a 300 hitter was a novelty.  As a first baseman, they’d rather see him hit for power.  He had one of his worst seasons last year hitting a career low 277 with only 4 HR and 55 RBI.  Injury limited him to 120 games last year, so there is additional hope that a fully healthy Mauer will play a little better.  Hitting third will give him RBI opportunities.  Hitting over 300 in a spot with a lot of RBI opportunities can net you 70 RBI.  That’s okay, but if that’s the ceiling for your number 3 hitter, you are in trouble.  Additionally, opposing pitchers have little incentive to pitch to Mauer, considering his supporting cast.  Mauer is a limited player, paid like a superstar for a team with limited resources.  I think he could hit 300 again, but wouldn’t expect more than 10 HR and 80 RBI.  I’d really expect 8 HR and 70 RBI.  Not bad, but not worth the money he’s paid.

Brian Dozier has turned into a pretty good player at second base.  He hit 242 last year, but added 23 HR and 71 RBI.  He also added 112 R, good enough for second in the league.  If you have a light hitting first baseman, having a power hitting second baseman helps offset the lack of power.  Dozier also stole 21 bags so he contributes in multiple ways.  Dozier is expected to hit second again with the hope that hitting behind the leadoff man will get him a lot of fastballs to hit.  It also helps utilize his speed.  I like him better in the cleanup spot, but that’s just my opinion.  It depends on where he hits, but I think he can hit 240 again (241 career AVG over 3 seasons) with 20+ HR and SB.  If he hits 4^th, he can threaten for 100 RBI (likely more like 85).  If he hits 2^nd, expect closer to 70 RBI and maybe 90-100 R again.  His great OBP gets him into scoring position more than someone with his AVG normally would. 

Tori Hunter has returned to Minnesota where his career began.  He is no longer the Gold Glove center fielder he used to be and he has also struggled to be a decent right fielder over the last few years.  But having a proven winner and good clubhouse guy on this team of youngsters was a worthy investment for the Twins.  He also steps in as one of the better hitters on this team, even on the downswing of his career.  He hit 286 last season with 17 HR, 83 RBI and 71 R hitting second for the superior Detroit offense.  The Twins plan to hit him cleanup, which I don’t like only because Dozier has a higher ceiling in that spot.  Put him down for 270 with 15 HR, 80 RBI and 60 R.  I’d hit him second, in which case you could still see 70+ RBI with over 70 R as well. 

Danny Santana emerged as a viable leadoff option for Minnesota last year.  After primarily playing CF for the Twins last year, he will be their everyday shortstop and leadoff hitter this season.  He hit 319 in 101 games last season with 20 SB, 70 R and 7 HR.  His 353 OBP was much better than most rookies and I think he could be their future leadoff man.  I would expect growing pains in his second season, but still think he could be a viable leadoff option.  I’m thinking 280 with a 330 OBP, 40 SB and 90 R.  If the rest of the offense was any good I’d think fewer SBs and more R, but that’s not a bad bottom line for anyone, much less a second year shortstop.

Oswaldo Arcia is the most aggressive hitter on this club with 20 HR in only 103 games last year.  That came with a 231 AVG, but that’s to be expected from a young player with his makeup.  Frankly, the Twins don’t care if he hits 220, as long as he hits for power and can be someone pitchers fear throwing to.  A lot of people expect a breakout, but I don’t know.  The supporting cast isn’t great and the ballpark kills power.  I think he’ll hit 230 again with maybe 25-30 HR, but no more than 75 RBI.

Trevor Plouffe will run back out there for his 6^th season playing third for the Twins.  He is unexciting and not someone anyone focuses on, but he has had quietly productive seasons the last few years.  He had 24 HR in 2012 with a 235 AVG.  He’s improved his AVG by about 20 points over the last two seasons, but has seen a drop in HR with 14 each of the last two years.  That being said, the Twins are happy with his performance.  He hit 258 last year with his 14 HR and a career high 80 RBI.  They gave him a look for the cleanup hole, but are likely to hit him hit 5^th or 6^th.  I think he may start the season 5^th, but will settle into the 6^th hole with Arcia having better power potential.  Put him down for 250, 12-15 HR and 70-80 RBI. 

The rest of the lineup will be made up of DH Kennys Vargas, catcher Kurt Suzuki and center fielder Jordan Schafer.  Vargas will be the DH and play first base on occasion to let Mauer have a break from playing in the field.  Vargas hit 274 in 53 games last year with 9 HR and 38 RBI.  I have no idea why they want him to bat 5^th with his limited experience.  Hitting 5^th is a lot of responsibility for a guy with less than a third of a season of experience under his belt.  While he’s got good power and handles fastballs, he needs to improve on his ability to hit breaking pitches if he’s going to be successful in the big leagues.  Hitting 5^th will add undue pressure on him, and I think he may struggle to the tune of 220 with maybe 15 HR.

Kurt Suzuki hit a very impressive 288 over 131 games with the Twins last year.  He has no power or speed and is only a career 257 hitter, so that AVG was a surprise.  They like him for defense and consider any offense a bonus.  He is just a placeholder until young Josmil Pinto gets his defense into major league shape.  Based on where it was last year, Pinto may spend all year at Triple A.

Jordan Schafer will hold down center field until the arrival of top prospect Byron Buxton.  Schafer is a former top prospect that struggled in the majors, served a PED suspension and then settled into a part time role last year.  After failing as a starter in Houston, he returned to Atlanta last season, where he began his career and played as a fourth outfielder.  He only hit 163 with 15 SB while playing great defense.  With B.J. Upton’s struggles, many Braves fans wanted him to take over the starting job.  Instead, the Braves let him go to Minnesota, where he was great in 41 games with the Twins.  He hit 285 with a 345 OBP stole 15 more bases in 20 fewer games and scored 17 Runs.  If Santana struggles in the leadoff spot, Schaffer can be a viable leadoff option.   If not, he can hit 9^th to get on base for the flipped lineup and maybe steal 20-30 bags.  He, too, is only a placeholder for Buxton, who may appear in the majors this year. 

This offense isn’t overly potent.  They have a first baseman that hits for AVG and a second baseman that hits for power.  They have speed in the middle infield and moderate power in the corner outfield spots as well as at third.  They could be competitive, but won’t win a lot of games on their own.  This offense isn’t as bad as people think it is, but won’t be any better than slightly above average.

The defense has gotten sloppy in Minnesota over recent years.  That’s part of the reason they let Gardenhire go.  But I don’t think that will do much to help the on-field defensive production.  Mauer is still learning first. Dozier is average at best, maybe a bit below average at second.  Santana should be good at short despite playing more games in center last year and Plouffe is average or better at third.  Hunter has definitely lost a step in right and has very limited range.  He hides it well with his experience and good positioning, but he is a below average right fielder.  Oswaldo Arcia was bad in right.  They are moving him to left, hoping that he’ll play better there, but he has bad reactions and makes bad reads.  Eduardo Nunez is more of an offensive bench player who has struggled in the infield defensively and is trying to learn left field.  Aaron Hicks is trying to get healthy enough to play some center field and Eduardo Escobar has a nice glove backing up the middle infield.  Kurt Suzuki is pretty good behind the plate as is Schafer in center.  They are arguably the two best defenders on the team right now.  This defense won’t be helping the pitching staff a whole lot.

Pitching:

While this offense could use some work, the pitching staff could use even more.  They made significant improvement last season and were still last in the league with a 4.57 ERA.  They have had the highest team ERA in the league over the last two years and they weren’t good last year ranking last in both hits allowed and Ks.  They don’t have any pitchers who can throw gas and only one of their soft tossers had the command to get hitters out last year (Phil Hughes).  While they have been bad across the board, their starters have been particularly atrocious.  This team won’t be good this year and with the way their pitching staff is constructed, they may not be good for a while.

I mentioned Phil Hughes as the staff ace.  He lacks overpowering stuff and gets by with great command.  He led the Twins with 16 Wins, a 3.52 ERA and 186 Ks.  While that number of Ks doesn’t look bad, he had to throw 209 innings to get there.  And while he had the best walk rate in a single season last year en route to a 1.13 WHIP, he still uses smoke and mirrors to keep runs off the board, as evidenced by his 268 BAA.  Long story short, guys will get hits off of him.   But if he can continue to strand runners and avoid walks, he should have another okay season.  He was very lucky last year and it only led to a 3.52 ERA.  I think he’ll be the Twins most competitive pitcher again, but we are only looking at 10-12 wins with an ERA under 4, but likely north of 3.75.

Ricky Nolasco was added last offseason and was supposed to help settle this starting rotation.  It didn’t work out.  Nolasco went 6-12 with a 5.38 ERA.  Hitters crushed him to the tune of a 316 BAA.  He put a ton of runners on base and didn’t have the stuff to get out of trouble.  He is another guy with average stuff, but doesn’t have the control Hughes has.  I don’t think he’ll be much better this year, likely with another losing record, about 5 wins and an ERA north of 4.50.  200 IP would be a win, no matter how he gets there.

Ervin Santana was supposed to be the new number 2 starter after his good season with the Braves last year, but a second PED violation has gotten him suspended for almost half the season (80 games).  Before coming back he will likely need some minor league rehab games, so the Twins can’t expect him back until after the All Star Break.  With that much time off who knows how sharp he’ll be. 

With Santana gone, Mike Pelfrey has returned to the starting rotation, a place he thought he never should have left.  He only made 5 starts last year before going down with another injury.  He was terrible in those starts, pitching to a 7.99 ERA.  The year before it was a 5.19 ERA in 29 starts with the Twins.  I don’t expect much from him, likely another ERA around 5 in his starts.  I’m honestly confused as to why he thought he deserved to be starting in the first place.

The rest of the rotation is made up of Tommy Milone and Kyle Gibson.  Gison was passable in 31 starts last year with a 13-12 recocrd and 4.47 ERA.  He made improvements from his first season and that’s really all that matters.  Not much is expected of him, likely another season north of 4 in the ERA department.  Milone is a former highly touted prospect that is now just looking to succeed as the 5^th starter on a last place team.  He only made 5 starts and 1 relief appearance last year and struggled with a 7.06 ERA.  He’s got a decent body of work and has pitched to a 3.98 ERA in his 5 limited seasons.  Injuries been a major issue with him and he is likely not the pitcher he used to be in Oakland.  But he had a good year in 2013 (6-3 in 16 starts with a 3.55 ERA) so maybe he can be a quality starter if healthy.  I’m expecting a losing record with an ERA around 4.50.

The bullpen is actually a better group of arms than the starters, but that’s not saying much.  Closer Glen Perkins earned 34 saves last year despite a subpar 3.65 ERA last season.  He struck out 66 in 61 IP, but saw hitters hit 258 off him, not good at all.  He’ll be acceptable again this year, but not one of the best.  30 Saves and an ERA between 3 and 3.50.

The rest of the arms are unremarkable.  Blaine Boyer is a reclamation project that struggled in relief for the Braves years ago and Tim Stauffer is a failed starter trying to make a go of it in relief.  Brian Duensing is another failed starter trying to make it as a reliever.  They aren’t a good group, but aren’t the worst in the league either.

This pitching staff is one of the worst in baseball.  While the bullpen is only near the bottom, the starters might actually be ranked at the bottom.  Even if they aren’t that bad and improve some, they are a far cry from competitive, much less good.  Minnesota has a lot of holes, but the men on the mound make up the most gaping one.

Prediction:

Look out Twin Cities, this is going to sting.  The Twins are bad.  They have a future ahead of them, but frankly I don’t think it’s as close as they do.  In addition, they will miss Ron Gardenhire, miss Ervin Santana and really miss their fans, which continue to stay away.  The Twins built an outdoor stadium in one of the coldest parts of the country for a team that plays games at least 6 months out of the year.  April is cold there.  May isn’t warm.  And if the Twins ever make the postseason (a silly, ridiculous notion at this point) it will be cold in October and November.  People don’t like to sit outdoors in cold weather for 3-hour baseball games.  They really don’t like it when the on-field product resembles a dumpster fire.  I don’t see any of that changing this year.

Spoiler alert: the Twins will finish in last place.  They may win 70 games.  They may only win 65.  Gonna be a long year in Minnesota.

Cleveland Indians 2015 Team Breakdown

Projected Division Finish

1.              Kansas City Royals

2.              Detroit Tigers

3.              Chicago White Sox

4.              Cleveland Indians

5.              Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Indians

2014 Finish:              85-77 (Third Place)

Projected Batting Order

CF        Michael Bourn

2B       Jason Kipnis

RF        Michael Brantley

DH       Carlos Santana

LF        Brandon Moss

C          Yan Gomes

1B       Nick Swisher

3B       Lonnie Chisenhall

SS        Mike Aviles

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

RHP                 Corey Kluber

RHP                 Trevor Bauer

RHP                 Zach McAllister

RHP                 Danny Salazar

RHP                 Carlos Carrasco

CLOSER          Cody Allen

The Indians quietly won 85 games last year to finish in third place in this division.  I don’t think this is a bad team.  But I think they are still inferior to Detroit and Kansas City and did nothing as the White Sox made significant improvements.  For that reason, I see them slipping a bit this year and don’t think they will have the kind of season the state of Ohio thinks they are going to have.

Offense/Defense:

I usually use this space to talk about the offense of each team.  And to that end, the Indians were a very middle of the road offensive team last year hitting 253 as a group and ranking near the middle of every single major offensive category. 

The better measure of why this team finished out of the playoffs is their defensive rankings (not pitching, the defense in the field).  As a team, the Indians led the majors with 118 errors and 72 unearned runs allowed.  Among the issues, Carlos Santana was dreadful catching and playing third while Asdrubal Cabrera was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball.  They corrected those issues, but after the offseason the rest of the division had, playing good defense all year may not be enough for the Indians to see October baseball.

Michael Brantley emerged as a star last season leading the team with a 327 AVG and 97 RBI.  He also chipped in 21 HR, 23 SB and 94 R.  That output was good enough for him to finish fourth in the AL MVP race.  Always an underrated player, Brantley broke out in a big way to carry this Indians offense.  Can he do it again?  I think he can because he was always a good player and in his age 27 season trimmed his K rate and pulled the ball more.  That hints towards better plate discipline and vision.  Being able to pull the ball will help him continue to hit HRs and he was excellent at picking his spots on the bases, only getting caught once which earned him a green light.  I’m a Brantley believer, even if his numbers aren’t quite as strong.  I think he may see a drop in AVG, but still expect that he can hit 300 with 18 HR and 20 SB and 90 RBI/R

The cleanup man is Carlos Santana.  Santana led the Indians with 27 HR last year and a career high 85 RBI.  The thought was moving out from behind the plate would get him in more games and keep him healthy.  It worked as he appeared in 150+ games the last two years.  But moving all around the diamond may have hurt his offensive output.  The third base experiment failed.  And with Nick Swisher struggling so much, the call was made to have Santana play first everyday. Santana who hit a career low 231 last year.  They love the power, but want to see that AVG tick up a bit.  I’ll put him down for another 25 HR and 80 RBI with an AVG in the 240-250 range.

Brandon Moss was brought on to add a little more pop to this club and man right field.  He’s a big power hitter with 25 HR last year and 30 the year before.  He’s also driven in over 80 men for two straight years.  There is concern about his batting average, which has dropped from 291 to 256 to 234 over the last three seasons.  But as long as he continues to hit 20+ HR, drive in 80 and keep his AVG above 230, teams don’t mind his approach.  I’ll put him down for 25 HR, 80 RBI and a 240 AVG.

Coming into last season, Jason Kipnis was considered the Indians best player.  In 2013, he hit 284 with 17 HR, 84 RBI, 86 R and 30 SB, improving across the board on what had been a good 2012. But he took a step back in 2014, hitting 240 with only 6 HR.  He still flashed good speed with 22 SB, but getting on base less limited his running and he only drove in 41 RBI.  He was a major reason the Indians failed to build on their 92 win season from 2 years ago.  Injuries were part of the problem as an oblique injury limited him to 129 games.  Perhaps the emergence of Brantley will ease some of the pressure off of him.  Hitting second, right in front of Brantley, may get him some better pitches to hit.  But if the Indians want to be a threat in the division again, it starts with Kipnis playing better.  I’ll put him down for 265 with 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 R and 25 SB.  The Indians would like to see more, but I don’t think he’s got it in him and 2013 will be seen as an outlier in his career.

Leadoff man Michael Bourn has been one of the biggest disappointments in Cleveland.  After signing a big contract coming into the 2013 season, Bourn has gone downhill from his All Star days in Atlanta and Houston.  He appeared in only 130 games his first season with a meager 26 SB, 263 AVG and 316 OBP.  Last year it was only 106 games with a 257 AVG and 314 OBP.  His AVG has dropped 5 straight seasons.  He only went 10 for 16 on the bases last year and is starting to prove that speed doesn’t age well.  At 32 years old,.  I’m putting him down for 255 with 15 SB and 70 R.  Not at all what the Indians are paying for.

The other free agent bust is DH Nick Swisher.  He is likely to miss the start of the season with a knee injury, but is on his way back after starting his spring training late.  He was always overrated after hitting in the new Yankee Stadium and their little league dimensions.  His first season in Cleveland was subpar and his second was worse.  He hit 208 in 97 games last year with 8 HR and 42 RBI.  He will spend most of his time at DH hitting in the bottom of the order.

One of the few bright spots from last year was catcher Yan Gomes.  Gomes was stuck behind Carlos Santana for years, but got to catch everyday last season and responded well.  He was already pushing for more playing time due to his performance in 2013 (294/11 HR) and he has locked up the starting job after what he did in 2014 (278/21 HR/74 RBI).  I like him for 260-280 with 15-20 HR and 70+ RBI.

Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall make up the rest of the starting lineup.  Chisenhall had his best season last year after the threat of losing his playing time to Carlos Santana at third.  He appeared in 142 games, a career high, achieved career bests in AVG (280), HR (13) and RBI (59).  Those numbers are still low for a starting corner infielder and now that the threat of him losing playing time is gone, you wonder if he’ll regress.  I just don’t have a lot of faith in him and would expect a pedestrian season of 240/12 HR/60 RBI.  Ramirez is a defense first guy with only 83 MLB games under his belt.  I’d expect him to struggle at the plate, though he could chip in 15 SB.

This offense was very average last year.  They hope to be better this season, but really only added one major piece to improve:  Brandon Moss.  What they are truly hoping for are bounce back seasons from Kipnis, Bourn and Swisher.  I think that’s too much to hope for.

Defensively, this team should be better, but still not good.  Carlos Santana is not good at first; he just does the least amount of damage there.  Nick Swisher is better, but not great.  Brandon Moss can play first but is average at best.  Moss is likely the best of the bunch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if gets more time there than expected.  Swisher is no longer a viable option in right so will probably only DH.  Kipnis and Chisenhall struggled defensively last year.  They are better than they played in the field and I think we may see them bounce back.  The only plus defender on the infield is Ramirez at short.  Brantley is excellent in left.  Gomes is fantastic behind the plate.  Bourn is losing a step in center, which is bad because his arm was never great.  Moss is not very good in right.  The bench will likely see a lot of action later in games with Murphy the best option in right, Raburn able to play both corner outfield spots well and Aviles able to play every infield position but first.  If Swisher weren’t making so much money, I’m sure Santana would DH, Moss would play first and Murphy would play right.  So while this defense will be a little better, expect them to struggle and be below average once again.

Pitching:

For the most part, the Indians pitching staff was a pretty average group with two exceptions:  their 3.56 ERA was 5^th in the league (out of 15 teams….above average I’d say) and they led the league in Ks.  A major part of that was the breakout of Corey Kluber who led the team with 18 Wins, a 2.44 ERA and 269 Ks en route to a Cy Young Award.  Kluber was dominant last year, despite allowing more base runners than the average ace.  His 1.09 WHIP was good, but not great and his 233 BAA was just a little better than average.  Kluber had 51 BBs in 235 IP.  But his 269 Ks helped him get out of a lot of jams.  He was a horse last year with a ton of innings.  He may have been a little lucky in the ERA department, but not much.  I expect another strong season this year with 15+ Wins, 220 IP, 250 Ks and an ERA right around 3.

After Kluber, there is a big drop off in talent.  The Indians are hoping for a big season from highly touted Trevor Bauer, who has quietly been getting better each year.  He made 26 starts last year going 5-8 with a 4.18 ERA.  But he had 143 Ks in 158 IP, saw his walk rate improve (it’s still not good) and his ERA drop for the third straight year.  Mickey Callaway may be the best pitching coach in baseball after resurrecting Scott Kazmir’s career, getting Ubaldo Jiminez to pitch his best baseball and turning Kluber into a Cy Young Winner.  With him at the helm, I see Bauer as my dark horse candidate to be Comeback Player of the year with a great season.  While most are expecting merely modest improvement, I’m going out on a limb here and saying that Bauer will win 15 games, pitch to a sub 3.25 ERA and reach 200 Ks in 215 IP. 

Carlos Carrasco bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and bullpen, finally settling into the rotation as the season wore on.  He went 8-7 with a 2.55 ERA and 140 Ks in 134 IP.  Many are expecting a breakout season from him this year, but he has struggled this spring.  I don’t know what to make of him.  He has filthy stuff (0.99 WHIP and 209 BAA) but his numbers are artificially propped up by 26 strong relief appearances.  I think he’ll stick, but don’t know how effective he will be.  I’m guessing a losing record with maybe 8 Wins to go with an ERA around 4.  He could have 180 Ks in 150 IP, but just don’t think he’ll be the pitcher everyone thinks he will be.

After Danny Salazer’s terrible spring, Zach McAllister and T.J. House took the last two rotation spots.  McAllister struggled last season after a solid 2013.  He was limited to 15 starts, but went 4-7 and saw his ERA climb from 3.75 to 5.23.  I don’t think he’ll be any better than 8 Wins and a 4.50 ERA.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was worse than that.  House made his MLB debut last season and went 5-3 in 18 starts with a 3.35 ERA.  He struck out 80 in 100 IP with a 1.35 WHIP (bad) and 284 BAA (worse).  He’s young, so you expect some improvement and it looks like he’s not too far behind the curve. But I’d expect growing pains this year as he will likely see his ERA climb towards 5 if he can’t get the base runners under control.

Cody Allen leads a very talented Indians bullpen.  Allen took over as the closer early on in the year with 24 Saves and 9 Holds to only 4 Blown Saves.  He pitched to a 2.07 ERA and logged 91 Ks in 69 IP.  His 1.06 WHIP and 194 BAA show that he looks legit and should have another strong season on the mound.  I think he could surpass 30 Saves this year with a sub 2 ERA and 100 Ks.

A stable of quality arms including Bryan Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski and Nick Hagadone know how to pitch and don’t allow to many base runners.  That is all you ask of your relievers.  The Indians had the second best bullpen WAR in the league last season.  The only concern is the workload as they set a new single season record for appearances with 573 and had 4 pitchers make at least 70 appearances.  They had to make all those appearances with the pitching deficiencies in the starting rotation.  After Kluber, there are no sure things in the starting rotation.  I see this bullpen playing a major role in Cleveland’s season this year.  While they have the talent, I worry that their overuse could hurt them in the long run.

This pitching staff is looking to improve.  They were pretty average last year.  But they didn’t make any moves t get better.  The bullpen is strong but they will have to play a lot to support a weaker starting rotation.  Eventually, all those innings will catch up to them, despite their talent.  At best, the Indians look like an average pitching staff.  I think the bullpen will slip some, and the pitching staff as a whole will take a step back because of that.

Prediction:

The Indians were pretty average across the board last year.  Their defense was terrible, and while it got better, they still look bad.  Their offense was average.  They added a quality power bat, but that will only help them a little.  Their pitching staff was average.  They made no moves to improve it.  Their starting group looks thin.

The Indians are not as good as the Tigers or Royals.  The White Sox got better and look better on paper.  This will be a tough division this year and I think the Indians are clearly a step below the top teams.

I’m putting them down for 75 Wins and a fourth place finish.  They won’t be a factor in the playoffs or even the playoff hunt.

Chicago White Sox 2015 Team Breakdown

Chicago White Sox

2014 Finish:              73-89 (Fourth Place)

Projected Batting Order

CF        Adam Eaton

LF        Miguel Cabrera

1B       Jose Abreu

DH       Adam LaRoche

SS        Alexei Ramirez

RF        Avisail Garcia

C          Tyler Flowers

3B       Connor Gillespie

2B       Emilio Bonifacio

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

LHP                 Chris Sale

RHP                 Jeff Samardzjia

LHP                 Jose Quintana

LHP                 John Danks

RHP                 Hector Noesi

CLOSER          David Robertson

The White Sox have had one of the most exciting off seasons of any team in the game.  They added Adam LaRoche, Jeff Samardzjia, David Robertson and Emilio Bonifacio.  After struggling for the last four years, they decided to go out and make some noise.  Now is an especially good time for that, as the Cubs have also made moves and want to take hold of the city’s baseball focus.  While the White Sox may never be the Cubs, I think they could be the better team this year.

Many are picking them to be an upset team to take the AL Central title this year.  But let’s not forget how far this team would have to go from last year.  79 Wins is not at all good.  Outside of sitting 5^th in HR, this offense was average across the board.  The pitching staff was below average ranking third to last in team ERA.  There is no question they got a lot better.  But that may have only made them as good as the teams they are trying to beat.

Offense/Defense:

The White Sox offense was a very middle of the road group last year.  If not for the emergence of Jose Abreu, they would have been straight up bad.  The only area where they were pretty good was the power department where they were tied for fourth in the league with 155 HR (their ballpark deserves an assist on that stat).  The Sox made some additions to hopefully help them improve offensively this year. 

The White Sox offense had a new leader step up last season in the name of Jose Abreu.  Abreu was a Cuban expat who immediately came over and started raking in the major leagues.  He hit 317 with 36 HR, 107 RBI and 80 R.  He won the AL Rookie of the Year in a landslide and had he stayed healthy could have won the HR title, falling four short of Nelson Cruz.  You always worry about second year players in the league, but this isn’t a traditional rookie.  He’s older and has played professionally in Cuba for years.  That’s part of the reason that he was so good in his first season.  And while Cespedes and Puig haven’t impressed in their second seasons, I think Abreu can.  Perhaps his AVG drops, but I still like him for 280 with 30-35 HR and 100 RBI.

Last year, Paul Konerko was the protection for Abreu.  With his retirement, the White Sox went out to improve that protection and signed Adam LaRoche to be their primary DH.  It’s interesting, because LaRoche is a far better defensive first baseman than Abreu.  But Abreu is younger, makes more money and wants to play in the field.  So expect LaRoche to DH and give Abreu the occasional day off at first.  Perhaps they even move Abreu to left occasionally as a way to rest their corner outfielders.  But if that affects his hitting, then that won’t happen and the White Sox will be left with the best fielding DH in baseball.  Long under-appreciated, LaRoche has started getting recognition for being a good player in recent years, especially after his great year in 2012 and Gold Glove season.  Last season he hit 259 with 26 HR and 92 RBI.  Outside of an injury shortened season in 2011, LaRoche has hit over 20 HR every season since his rookie year in 2004.  Moving to the launching pad in U.S. Cellular field, I think LaRoche can threaten for 270 again with 30 HR.  I’m guessing 268 with 28 HR and 90+ RBI.

One of the other major additions this offseason was left fielder Melky Cabrera.  After missing the end of the 2012 season on a PED suspension, Cabrera has been very good.  He has missed some time due to injuries over the last two years for the Blue Jays, but played in 139 games last year hitting 301 with 16 HR and 73 RBI.  He may not be the best fielder, but it’s not for lack of ability.  He is a great number 2 hitter who hits for plus AVG (career 286) with some pop and speed.  If he plays a full season, I’m thinking 280 with 15 HR and 10 SB.  Add in 70 RBI/R.

The White Sox actually started their rebuild last year, with the addition of new leadoff man Adam Eaton.  In the healthiest season of his short 3-year career, Eaton played in 123 games hitting 300 with 15 SB.  He’s a good leadoff man who does a great job working the count with a career 350 OBP.  He runs a lot, but isn’t great at it (15 SB, caught stealing 9 times).  If fully healthy, he could swipe 20 bags, but I don’t know how good his percentage will be.  That being said, he could threaten for 300 again and get on base as a 350 clip.  I’ll put him down for 290 with 18 SB and 90 R.

Shortstop Alexei Ramirez had one of his best years in the majors.  He hit 273 last year with 15 HR, 74 RBI and 21 SB.  He’s either hit for AVG or power over his career, but last year was the first year he combined the two and had a very strong season.  I think he’s another 270 guy with 15-20 HR potential, not to mention 20 SB.

Young right fielder Avisail Garcia is hoping for the breakout that many predict.  I am unsure.  He swings and misses too much and struggles with breaking pitches.  If he plays a full year, he could stumble his way into 15 HR and 8 SB.  But that may be paired with a 240 AVG.  If he is in a spot to hit a lot of fastballs and lay off breaking pitches, he can have a big year and help the Sox contend.  But I don’t see him breaking out.

Speaking of all or nothing hitters, catcher Tyler Flowers brings his blend of power and nothing else back to the South Side.  His 241 AVG was helped by a healthy 355 BABIP, which denotes that he was quite lucky.   He hit 15 HR with 52 RBI last year, which I think is a good barometer for him.  He played in 123 games, by far his most in the majors.  I might expect that AVG to drop a bit towards 220, but think he can still contribute his 15 HR.

Emilio Bonifacio is another new addition who can be a real sparkplug.  At this point in his career, he is viewed as more of a utility guy who can bring his great speed to multiple positions.  For the most part, he plays OF, 2B and 3B.  But he can also play short in a pinch.  The goal is about 400 ABs and the ability to rest other regulars.  That being said, I feel like he is so much better than the other second base options for Chicago that he will find his way into 500 ABs.  He will never be a 300 hitter, despite his ability to put the bat on the ball.  But I think he can hit 260 again (259 last year) with 20 SB in limited time.

Connor Gillespie and Carlos Sanchez make up the rest of the offense.  Neither is very exciting and that is part of the reason Bonifacio was signed.  Sanchez had shown power and speed in the minors, but nothing in limited time last year for the White Sox.  Gillespie hits for a decent AVG, but with limited pop and no speed.  Gordon Beckham is still around, but lost the starting job.  Matt Davidson was supposed to take the third base job, but is struggling in Triple A.

That is the offense.  It has talent at the top and potential in the middle.  While some of the Sox hitters are one-trick ponies (Flowers), many of the others have the ability to hit for decent AVG and lots have power.  There is speed sprinkled throughout the lineup, even if the leadoff man needs to work on his base running.  If Eaton can continue to get on base at a 362 clip like he did last year, then Cabrera, Abreu, LaRoche and Alexei Ramirez will have no trouble knocking him in.  Even if he can’t get on base, Cabrera and Abreu will get on enough that LaRoche, Ramirez and maybe Flowers/Garcia can clean it up.  This offense should score runs.  Maybe not as many as the Tigers, but more than the Royals.

The defensive picture isn’t as promising.  Flowers is not good behind the plate and allows a lot of balls in the dirt to get away.  Abreu is maybe a little above average at first, which wouldn’t be as noticeable if there weren’t a Gold Glover DHing.  Sanchez and Gillespie are fine defensively at second and third and Bonifacio is as good when he plays.  Alexei Ramirez has lost a step defensively at short and his range was totaled at -6 runs.  Cabrera has all the skills in the world in left, but often looks disinterested in the field.  Eaton and Garcia are fine in center and right, but not great.  Bonifacio has the range to play well in all three outfield spots, but his arm is lacking, especially when he plays right.  Gordon Beckham is on the bench, but backs up two of the better defensive positions the White Sox have.  These guys may hit well, but they aren’t as good with the leather.

Pitching:

While the White Sox offense was only average last year, their pitching staff was decidedly below average.  They had the third worst team ERA, were tied for the worst WHIP and led the league in walks.  Obviously, they needed to improve on the mound, so the White Sox added a quality starter, a strong closer and another solid bullpen piece in the hopes that it would be enough to support what looks like a very strong offense.

Chris Sale is still the ace of this staff.  He is one of the three best lefties in the game today and has been lights out for the Sox the past few years.  A converted reliever, Sale had his best season last year since moving to the starting rotation.  He went 12-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 208 Ks in 174 IP.  Unfortunately, he only made 26 starts due to injury and was shut down early in a lost year for the White Sox.  His 0.97 WHIP is downright nasty and his 205 BAA shows how unhittable he is.  There has long been concern that his mechanics will lead to him breaking down, but he’s been fairly strong for the last three years, even missing time with light injuries.  He is getting over a foot fracture and is scheduled to make his season debut late, April 12^th.  But if he can stay healthy from that point on, I like him for 15+ Wins, 200 IP, 210 Ks and an ERA around 2.75. 

The new addition to this starting staff is Jeff Samardzjia who will couple with Sale to create arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league, certainly in the division.  Samardzjia was excellent in his split season with the A’s and Cubs, despite his 7-13 record.  He struck out 202 batters in 219 IP with a 2.99 ERA.  While he will give up hits, its not a crippling amount and he doesn’t beat himself by allowing a lot of walks.  Leaving Wrigley field for O.Co Coliseum helped his numbers, and he hopes a return to a hitters’ park won’t hurt him too badly.  I think being the number 2 man for the Sox will help him deal with the pressure and he’ll have a strong season with 12-15 Wins and an ERA around 3.  Add to that 220 IP and 200 Ks.

Jose Quintana quietly had a great season last year.  Despite a 9-11 record, he was very good with a 3.32 ERA and 200 IP.  As a number three starter, those are excellent numbers.  He’s not a strikeout guy (178 Ks….not bad though) and will allow some base runners (1.24 WHIP is average….257 BAA is a little worse than average).  But he can buckle down to get out of jams and keep his team in games.  I think he will have another solid season with double-digit wins and an ERA a little south of 3.50.

John Danks and Hector Noesi make up the rest of the rotation.  They are a significant step back from the top 3 starters.  Danks went 11-11 with a 4.74 ERA last season.  Right now, he is just shooting to be an innings eater who will keep the White Sox in games.  I think he can have another season of around 200 IP (196 last year) with a sub 5 ERA.  Noesi saw the most starts in his career last season when he arrived in Chicago after being a bullpen piece for the Rangers and Mariners.  In Chicago, he went 8-11 with a 4.39 ERA.  He is another guy who is just looking to throw some quality innings in a tough league and tougher ballpark.

The bullpen got two major pieces added this offseason.  After using a closer by committee approach last season (which predictably failed), the White Sox signed David Robertson, fresh off his very strong year replacing Mariano Rivera in the Bronx last season.  Robertson went 39 for 44 in Save opportunities with a 3.08 ERA.  He loves the strikeout as he notched 96 in 64 IP.  But he also allowed 23 BBs, something coaches wish he’d work on.  The ERA is high for a closer, though he does a good job limiting base runners even with the walks.  The real culprit was the 7 HRs he allowed.  Moving out of the new Yankee Stadium will help with that some, but U.S. Cellular Field is a launching pad as well.  I’ll put him down for 35 Saves with a 2.50 ERA and another 90+ Ks. 

Converted starter Zach Duke is in line to be the primary setup man after a great season with the Brewers.  He logged 12 Holds in 74 games with 74 Ks in 58 IP.  He also pitched to a 2.45 ERA after making a tweak to his delivery in Milwaukee.  The results were fantastic and I expect another strong season in Chicago for Duke this year.

Javy Guerra and former top prospect Kyle Drabek highlight the remaining bullpen pieces.  There are some live arms, but few proven commodities.  However with strong starting pitching at the front of the rotation and enough solid names at the back of the bullpen (Robertson, Duke, Guerra), the hope is this bullpen won’t have to carry the team too far.

This pitching staff is significantly improved from last year, even though just 3 big pieces were added.  Having three strong starters has them ahead of Cleveland and Minnesota.  Having a strong bullpen has them ahead of Detroit.  But Kansas City is still the class of the division on the mound and you can argue that Detroit has more depth with their 4 solid starters.  The pitching staff will be better, but it needs to have strong seasons from the back of the rotation and front of the bullpen if it wants to be considered a playoff team.

Prediction:

As a team, the White Sox have improved across the board.  Looking at the additions they’ve made the last two off seasons, they certainly look no worse than the third best team on paper in this division.  But is that enough to make the playoffs?  They need to at least finish in second, in my opinion, to be in the wildcard conversation.  While they likely have the second best offense in the division, they may only have the third best pitching staff.  I’ll say it’s a toss up between them and Detroit on the mound.  When things are that close, I generally pick the team with the experience and winning pedigree.  And in recent years, that means the Tigers. 

The White Sox offense looks more formidable than the Royals, but the Royals pitching is far better.  I’m keeping them in first and having Detroit edge out Chicago for second in the division.  But I do think Chicago can make enough noise to make sure that only one team from their division tastes October baseball.

I’ll put the White Sox down for 83 wins and third place in this division.  It will be a massive improvement from last year and will have them nipping at Detroit’s heels enough that both miss the playoffs.  Not what they had in mind, but a clear example of improvement on the field.