Tampa Bay Rays 2014 Team Breakdown

TAMPA BAY RAYS:  92-71 (2^nd Place in the division, winner of Wild Card Game)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order:

LF        David DeJesus

RF        Wil Myers

3B        Evan Longoria

2B        Ben Zobrist

1B        James Loney

CF`       Desmond Jennings

DH       Matt Joyce

C          Ryan Hannigan

SS        Yunel Escobar

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        David Price

SP        Alex Cobb

SP        Chris Archer

SP        Matt Moore

SP        Jeremy Hellickson

RP       Grant Balfour

RP       Heath Bell

RP       Joel Peralta

The Rays continue to defy the gods of economics and contend with the smallest payroll in the major leagues, at a time when local T.V. deals are making teams richer than God, and salaries continue to stay well above what the Rays can come close to affording.  They do what most teams dream of doing:  draft and develop amateur talent and have them turn into quality major leaguers.  Every team has that goal.  Most of them also have money to augment their young cores with free agents to build champions.  The Rays don’t have that money, so they have to be better and drafting and development to contend.  And they do contend.  Each year.  More often that not, they’ve been in the playoffs the last 5 years.  They’ve won a pennant.  But there is one thing still eludes this incredible organization:  a World Series title.

This lineup is, not surprisingly, pretty young.  But there are veterans on this club.  Evan Longoria is the team leader for the Rays, the only guy they’ve spent serious money on.  However, he’s had health issues.  Last year he played in 160 games.  The previous 2 years he played in about 200 combined, out of a possible 324.  And he didn’t seem to be back to full health, despite the almost full slate of games.  He hit 269, which is below his career mark of 275.  Despite popular belief, he’s never hit above 300.  So 269 is not as far off from his normal pace as you might think.  But the rest of his game was back with 32 HR, 88 RBI and 91 R.  The speed has pretty much disappeared from his game, though the one season of 15 SB was probably an outlier.  So I could argue speed was never a major part of his game.  The 3,2 and 1 totals of the last three years are likely what we can expect from now on.  But he’s the heart of this team, hits for great power and is a defensive whiz.  After him, things fall off precipitously on the offensive side.  Ben Zobrist is likely the next most complete hitter on this team.  He hit 275 with 12 HR, 71 RBI, 77 R and 11 SB.  He’s not the ideal cleanup man, but Maddon does his lineup different than any other manager in the game.  Zobrist will be solid to above average again with 270+ likely, double digit HR and SB and over 70 RBI and R.  Wil Myers was great in his half season at 291/13/53/50.  I don’t expect his output to double in his first full year as the league will catch up to him a bit and get more film on him.  But 15 HR is a very real possibility, which would be a godsend for this offensively challenged club.  20 HR wouldn’t be overly surprising either.  The question is at the leadoff spot.  Right now, I have left fielder David DeJesus as the man, due to Desmond Jennings’ limitations.  Following Carl Crawford is a hard act to follow, and he’s been unable to turn into the leadoff man they thought he could be.  He hit 252 last year with a 324 OBP.  They want both of those numbers to be much higher.  He stole 20 bags and scored 82 R and that was in only 139 games.  He still hasn’t played a full season in his career.  If he can, they like what he does at the bottom third of the lineup.  He’s got good pop (14 HR last year) and when he gets on he can make things happen on the bases.  With David DeJesus around, they have a hitter with top of the lineup experience whose career OBP is over 350.  He’s not the ideal leadoff man at this point, but Joe Maddon has frequently bucked the traditional leadoff man method, choosing high OBP guys and DeJesus fits that bill.  Perhaps they let Yunel Escobar take a shot if DeJesus can’t get it done and Jennings isn’t yet the man.  He’s done it before, and though his 256 AVG from last year doesn’t scream leadoff material, he too has a career OBP of over 350.  There are options and Maddon loves to tinker.  He’s also the only manager in the world who seems to like Escobar, who plays slick defense.  They Rays shored up one of their biggest holes from last year with the addition of catcher Ryan Hannigan who struggled in limited service last year but is another high OBP guy with a 359 career mark.  Add to that Matt Joyce who can DH and play the corner outfield spots, Sean Rodriguez who can play anywhere in the infield and James Loney, who the Rays re-signed after a career year (299/13/75/54) and this Rays team is deep and talented.  I’d expect a new lineup each week and a lot of riding the hot hand.  This offense won’t be anywhere near the top of the league, but they should hit well enough to support their pitchers.

The other thing that will be more than solid is the defense in St. Pete (as the Rays actually play in St. Petersburg, not in Tampa).  James Loney is a very good defensive first baseman, Ben Zobrist plays a ton of positions well, second base among them and Escobar and Longoria make a left side of the infield tandem that ranks right up there with any other group in baseball.  David DeJesus is a former center fielder, and the best right fielder playing left in this division.  Desmond Jennings has great speed and ability in center and Ryan Hannigan is solid behind the plate.  The backups are solid as well, which is important because no manager uses his bench more than Joe Maddon.  Expect to see Sean Rodriguez play every single infield position as well as some outfield.  Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist will also spend time in the outfield.  And while some lineups Maddon trots out there will field better than others, there are strong defenders all over, though perhaps not Gold Glovers.

The main reason for this team’s success can be found on the mound.  The Rays have one of the best pitching staffs in the bigs.  They reached a 1-year deal with David Price for $14 million, a win for both sides.  An injury caused him to come out of the gate cold, but turned things around at the end of the year and still looks like the former Cy Young winner that he is.  And beyond him the riches continue.  Matt Moore could arguably be called the ace of this staff now after going 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA.  And he did all that in only 27 starts and 150 IP.  He was a stud with a 216 BAA and 143 Ks.  Alex Cobb had a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts with an 11-3 record.  Chris Archer was 9-7 in his rookie year with a 3.22.  And despite the struggles of Jeremy Hellickson last year, he’s still around as a 5^th starter who went 12-10 last year.  This is a deep, talented young group and there’s no doubt in my mind that if someone gets hurt or is ineffective, the Rays have about 5 more guys in the minors ready to come up and fill in.  They seem to have a never-ending group of starters ready to step in and perform.  They had to make some plans this offseason with star closer Fernando Rodney hitting free agency.  They acquired Heath Bell in the same deal that brought them Ryan Hannigan.  Bell has succeeded as a closer before, and took over in Arizona when their other closers went down.  It was a steal of a pickup.  Then, they signed Grant Balfour to a two-year deal to close for them, making Bell a talented insurance policy that will set up.  After spending 4 seasons with the Rays, he returns after 3 great years in Oakland, the last of which saw him notch 39 Saves with a 2.59 ERA.  He also struck out 72 in 62 IP, which shows he’s still got great stuff They still have a star in Joel Peralta who had 41 Holds and a BAA under 200.  And they’ve added Juan Carlos Oviedo to be another option.  This bullpen is as deep as the starting rotation, even if the names aren’t as well known 

Outlook/Prediction:

The outlook for the Rays is always equally bright and dim.  The good news is that they develop players better than any other team has.  Ever.  Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon and the brain trust in St. Petersburg are the best group of draft and develop men in the game.  So that, coupled with their deep young core and rotation makes their future look bright.  However, with the smallest incomes in the game and a nearly empty stadium every night, they have absolutely no room for error and won’t be able to keep these talented youngsters very long at all.  In fact, they have to cut their youngsters before any other team does, because they have absolutely zero financial flexibility.  So it’s a never-ending cycle in Tampa Bay, where they have to be the best at development and will never get to sit back and enjoy the fruits of their labor.

This team will struggle until changes are made.  Unfortunately the changes would include a new stadium (which isn’t coming any time soon), an easier commute to the stadium (because the stadium is in St. Petersburg, at least 40 min away) and a change in the sports hierarchy in Florida to put baseball near the top.  That will not happen, as college football is king in Florida.  It’s actually so big that other versions of football (namely the NFL franchise in Jacksonville) are unable to stay afloat.  Unless undergrads are wearing helmets and eye black, most Floridians don’t care about your sport.  Hard to change the way people think.

I think this team is incredibly talented.  Their offense is thin, but they may have the best pitching in baseball, not to mention the division.  So they will again ride their talented arms to the playoffs and hope they get enough offense to make a run.  With power from Longoria and Zobrist they should have a shot.  That doesn’t leave much room for error with the Rays as the rest of their offense can struggle, but narrow margins for success are something they are quite familiar with.  I think they will win another 90 games and take home second in this division, not to mention a spot in the playoffs as a wildcard.

New York Yankees 2013 Team Breakdown

NEW YORK YANKEES:  85-77 (Tied for 3^rd in the division)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order

CF       Jacoby Ellsbury

SS       Derek Jeter

1B       Mark Teixeira

C         Brian McCann

RF       Carlos Beltran

DH      Alfonso Soriano

3B       Kelly Johnson

2B       Brian Roberts

LF       Brett Gardner

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms

SP        C.C. Sabathia

SP        Hiroki Kuroda

SP        Masahiro Tanaka

SP        Ivan Nova

SP        David Phelps

SP        Michael Pineda

RP       David Robertson

RP       Dellin Betances

RP       Shawn Kelley

The Yankees are a team in transition.  Except this team doesn’t believe in that.  They don’t believe in re-builds and want to contend each and every season.  Perhaps that’s why they’ve not spent resources on producing young players to take over at the major league level one day.  In addition, they are embroiled with a soap opera named Alex Rodriguez and that’s where the media focus has been.  While saving $25 million on A-Rod ‘s suspension helped the team, they still have a glaring hole at third, a potential hole at second, and are flush with veteran outfielders and card carrying members of AARP.

The batting order was difficult to fill out.  Jacoby Ellsbury, one of the many free agents signed by the Bronx Bombers this year, will lead off.  That was easy as he’s a great hitter who set the table nicely for the World Champion Red Sox at 298 with 52 SB and 92 R.  And as a lefty in that bandbox expect to see his 9 HR from last year swell closer to 15, or even 20.  But the more HR he hits, the lower you can expect that AVG, perhaps in the 270s.  He’ a good player, but perhaps not worth the 7 years and $153 million that the Yankees gave him.  Derek Jeter is back for another season at short, but likely won’t see 162 games in the field.  He missed all of last year essentially, so we are unsure what he’ll bring.  He’s a guy who can still hit 275+ most likely, but there’s never been much power and the wheels are greatly diminished.  Speaking of diminished, the Yankees may have problems at first where Mark Teixeira is going to have to do more than hit home runs.  He, too, missed all season last year and needs to return to his All Star form, as he’s likely this team’s number 3 hitter.  He can’t hit 230 with 35 HR anymore.  They can’t afford that.  I don’t know if he’s still got that 270 hitter in him, but he needs to find him, while still knocking 30 or so over the fence.  I assume that McCann will be the cleanup man, and he too will need to return to his 270/25 HR self.  He says his vision problems are fixed and believes that is what was hampering his ability to hit for average.  However, any lefty with power falls in love with the short porch at the new Yankee stadium, and I worry about McCann turning into Mark Teixiera of a few years ago, with 30 HR and a 220 AVG.  Carlos Beltran should be solid however.  He hit 296 with 24 HR last year.  I’d expect closer to 280, but another 25 HR season.  I have him 5^th, but he could move up if others struggle.  Beltran is a slight injury concern, as is Ellsbury.  So the Yankees have Ichiro Suzuki as their fourth outfielder (which is all he really should be nowadays) and can also turn to Kelly Johnson in a pinch, who I currently have playing third.  But that’s not ideal.  He hit 235 last year with 16 HR.  In Yankee stadium the lefty could easily break 20, but expect another 235 from him.  He won’t be bad at third, but should platoon.  The starting second baseman for the Yankees right now, might be Brian Roberts, who hasn’t even  reached 77 games since 2009.  The Yankees might be best-served letting Johnson and Roberts platoon at second (especially since Johnson hasn’t played much third since the minors) and getting an upgrade at third.  They have Eduardo Nunez and Scott Sizemore on the bench, but neither is starting material and they will need Nunez to frequently spell Jeter at short, as he and Brendan Ryan are the only other guys they have who can play that position.  Jeter will spend some time at DH, but can’t spend too much or else Alfonso Soriano won’t be in the lineup.  The Yankees starting outfield has Ellsbury in center, Beltran in right and Gardner in left.  Ichiro can play either corner.  But Soriano can only play left, so putting him in the field means sitting Gardner down.  It will happen some, but Gardner’s the second best defensive outfielder they have left, the only other guy besides Ellsbury who can play center and the only other guy (again, besides Ellsbury) with speed.  I have him 9^th with his 273 AVG and 24 SBs from last year.  If Ellsbury gets hurt, which isn’t the most unlikely possibility, he will be great as the leadoff guy, which he did last year to the tune of 81 R and a 324 OBP.  Soriano will be the primary DH (though Beltran and Jeter will make appearances there) coming off one of his best seasons in years where he hit 34 HR and had 101 RBI between the Cubs and Yankees.  They want his bat, not his glove, thought he’ll likely see some time in left.

Even the defense has some holes on this roster.  The infield is a mess.  Brian Roberts hasn’t played in years.   Kelly Johnson hasn’t played third since the minors.  Scott Sizemore is probably the best defender of the triumvirate, assuming Brian Roberts has diminished some from his prime, and his best position is third base.  He may be a late defensive replacement at third because the expectation is that they will let Brian Roberts play second (which defensively will be fine until he gets hurt, which he always does) and Kelly Johnson play third.  Johnson came up as a third baseman in the Braves organization, but hasn’t played there since making it to the majors, being blocked by Chipper Jones.  He was in left field before moving to second, and he’s mainly played second since then, with occasional corner outfield assignments.  So his third base defense will likely be rusty.  Eduardo Nunez plays short and third, but he has been known to make a fair number of mistakes in the field.  He will be the primary backup for Jeter at short, so his playing third will be limited as we expect Jeter to DH a fair amount.  Jeter is probably one of the better defenders on this team now, which is good except that his range is vastly diminishing as he gets older.  Brendan Ryan is in the mix and can play second, third and short, but his bat is the worst of all of them.  The best defender in this infield is Mark Teixeira who is a Gold Glover.  Luckily the outfield is strong with Gold Glover Ellsbury in center and Gardner, a natural center fielder, in left.  Beltran is not the Gold Glover he used to be, but is better than average in right.  And he’s still got a great arm.  Ichiro is the 4^th outfielder, and he’s a stud in either corner.  Putting Soriano in the outfield will hurt them, so expect that only when Jeter DHs (and not every time) and don’t be surprised if they replace him defensively late in games.  Brian McCann is an underrated defensive catcher.

Despite all those offensive issues, the Yankees real issue going into the offseason was the starting rotation.  C.C. Sabathia was nowhere near an ace last year with a 14-13 record and 4.78 ERA.  He’s older now with a ton of innings on that left arm, so it’s no surprise.  He’s lost velocity, and has to learn to locate better, or else he’s going to get hammered.  He’s working on it.  Hiroki Kuroda is 39 and the number 2 starter for the Yankees this season.  Despite that, he had a team best 3.31 ERA.  Re-signing him was key.  And the Yankees got it done.  The issue after re-signing Kuroda was that young Ivan Nova was the number 3 man.  He had one of his best seasons pitching to a 3.10 ERA last year but it came on only 20 starts due to injury.  Andy Petite retired.  David Phelps had an ERA near 5.  Adam Warren has 3 career starts to his name and Michael Pineda hasn’t played in about 2 years.  That’s what the Yankees were looking at if they couldn’t add another quality arm to this starting rotation.  And there would be no help coming from the minors.  The Yankees have the worst farm system in baseball and there’s no relief in sight.  They needed serious help in their starting rotation.  Which is why they pursued Masahiro Tanaka so intensely.   And they got him.  They offered him the most money with a 7 year deal worth $155 million.  Last year he went 24-0 with a 1.35 ERA in Japan.  So we’ll see how he does here in the big leagues.  His stuff looks good, but he is still a risk.  They had to overpay him to ensure he came here, especially after the rules changed to cap the posting bids at $30 million (you know, so everybody would be allowed to negotiate with the free agent).  They Yankees cried foul, but that’s a tough sell for even the most cynical human on the planet.  And they still got their guy the old fashioned way, by outbidding the other teams just once, not twice, which is the way past Japanese stars were handled.  The Yankees are calling Tanaka a number 3 starter to take off some of the pressure, but he’s really the ace of this staff now.  And he’s never thrown a pitch in the major leagues.  On paper, C.C is number 1, Kuroda 2 and Tanaka 3.  That let’s Nova be 4, which is where he should be.  The number 5 guy will be Phelps, unless Michael Pineda gets healthy and takes the job away.    The bullpen isn’t in as bad of shape, but there are questions there as well.  Mariano Rivera has retired, so the Yankees have lost the best closer of all time.  David Robertson was an All Star setup man, and he will have the first chance to replace the legend.  Not an easy thing to do.  If he falters people will be all over him.  But I think he’ll be fine.  The rest of the bullpen looks iffy.  We don’t know who will setup.  Vidal Nuno is a good bet.  But he’s only pitched 5 games in the majors, 3 of them starts.  Dellin Betances will make his long anticipated appearance with the team this year, but not as a starter.  Last year in 6 games in relief he had an ERA over 10.  Stalwarts Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain are gone.  They are now looking to Shawn Kelley and Preston Claiborne to fill those key bullpen roles.  Kelley is serviceable and Claiborne will be in his second year.  I’m not saying they will struggle, but they are unproven to this point.

Outlook/Prediction:

Baseball’s seminal franchise isn’t in a great spot right now.  They wanted desperately to keep their salary number under $189 million for this one season, so they wouldn’t get killed by the luxury tax and could see it reset in 2015.  They didn’t make it.  However in a move that makes no logical sense, they went just over $189, then decided to stop spending when they have clear holes in their starting lineup.  It’s the worst of both worlds.  If you stay under, fine.  That’s what I think they should have done.  But they went over, which isn’t surprising.  But what is a surprise is their refusal to continue to field a good team, now that there is no benefit to keeping their salary below a certain point.  Go out there and get Stephen Drew.  Or add Ervin Santana.  They needed to do a lot or a little, and somehow they’ve done the worst possible thing, spend too much money but still leave the team in bad shape.  It was just about impossible to do that, but the Yankees are special.  The good news is that Alex Rodriguez says he’s done with his lawsuits and will serve his suspension.  So that saves them about $25 million and a headache this year.  But they still have holes at second and third.  They have 4 outfielders making a decent amount of money, and another making $21 million to stay at home (Vernon Wells).  They owe a ton of money to Alfonso Soriano, C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira not to mention the new deals with Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury.  And they have another year of Kuroda at about $16 million.  This team is irrevocably flawed, with no help coming from the minors.

The Yankees have been trying to flip Gardner for a starting pitcher.  New Yorkers say to send him to Cincinnati for Brandon Phillips and Homer Bailey.  I don’t know what fantasy world they live in that makes that a good deal, but Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the game and Bailey is a talented young pitcher.  Gardner is a good player.  I wouldn’t do a straight up trade for one of those guys, much less both.  And though the Reds considered sending Phillips over for Gardner to cut salary, the Yankees nixed the deal.  I have no idea why, but my only guess is that the Reds asked the Yankees to take on too much of the contract.  They want to save money, and he’s butted heads with the front office in the Queens City.  If I’m the Yankees I make that deal all day long, but they must realize they will eat a lot of the contract.  Brett Gardner is a nice player, but Brandon Phillips is one of the best middle infielders in baseball.  They have to give up more, and that means paying more of his contract.  Some people say that the Yanks should just attach some prospects to make the deal sweeter.  If the Yankees had any prospects that anyone wanted, they would be on the big club right now.  I don’t think it’s a bad idea to flip Gardner for a pitcher, but it won’t be a top of the line guy.  And if they do that, the rotation will be stronger, but still not deep and the Yanks will have holes at second and third still.  Perhaps the Yankees can take a shot on Stephen Drew to play third, and maybe back up short as well since he’d be the best defender in that infield.  But that’s more money to spend, and the Yankees don’t have it.  Or they do, but they don’t want to spend it.  So while there are adjustments they could make, they will inexplicably not make them, despite the fact that they have gone over $189 million already.

This team has a number of flaws and plays in a division with the defending champs, the talented young Rays and the up-and coming Orioles, not to mention the Blue Jays who could surprise this season.  I think C.C. will struggle early on, Tanaka will at some point have some issues adjusting, Kuroda will show his age and the rest of the rotation to show what they are, which is not quite league average.  The bullpen will likely see some issues, specifically in middle relief.  And while this offense will score runs, I don't think they score as much as they need to with holes in their infield and all the age the Yankees have between their starters.  I don’t like what’s coming out of the Bronx this year.  I have the Yankees finishing with 80-85 wins, which in this division could put you in last place.  And that’s where I have this team finishing.

Boston Red Sox 2014 Team Breakdown

BOSTON RED SOX:  97-65 (First in the Division, AL Champ, World Series Champ)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order:

RF        Shane Victorino

LF        Daniel Nava

2B       Dustin Pedroia

DH       David Ortiz

1B       Mike Napoli

C          A.J. Pierzynski

3B       Will Middlebrooks

SS        Xander Bogaerts

CF        Jackie Bradley Jr.

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms

SP        Jon Lester

SP        John Lackey

SP        Clay Buccholz

SP        Jake Peavy

SP        Felix Doubront

SP        Ryan Dempster

RP       Koji Uehara

RP       Edward Mujica

RP       Craig Breslow

The Red Sox did what 29 other teams couldn’t do last year….win the World Series.  So they are riding high coming into this season.  John Farrell is back, their pitchers have returned to their All Star forms and the good teammate clubhouse approach worked beautifully.  So with that being done, they just needed to path holes created by free agency and see if they could add some bullpen depth.  They did all of those things.

Offensively this team lost both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  There is no way they could replace Ellsbury, and they didn’t try.  They like young Jackie Bradley Jr. and he will have a chance to take over in center field.  More recently they signed Grady Sizemore to a make good major league deal.  He’s guaranteed to see time in the major leagues, but the Red Sox are only on the hook for $750,000 if he’s still not back to full health.  There are incentives, which could raise it to over $6 million.  I’d love to see Sizemore come back as he was a great player and a good guy done in by injuries.  He’s an insurance policy if Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t ready and may garner more playing time even if he works out.  They then upgraded at catcher with A.J. Pierzynski, and hope that will be enough to offset their losses.  Even if it’s not, this team should still be pretty solid.  We can assume that Shane Victorino is the most likely leadoff hitter replacement option.  However Daniel Nava’s name has also been tossed around, and they want Bradley there in the long term.  I listed Victorino as the leadoff hitter for now as he has the most experience.  But it’s important to note, that he’s traditionally struggled in that role.   In 216 games hitting leadoff, he’s hit 249 with a 317 OBP.  He’s never been a big walk taker either.  But after hitting 294 in the 2 hole last year with 21 SB, he’s the first option.  The other thing I did in this lineup, was assume that Bradley will win the starting job.  He may or may not.  But if he is platooned or on the bench to start the season, then Victorino will take over center, Nava will move to right and Johnny Gomes will play left.  Gomes will stick around as the top bat off the bench and a man to spell the outfielders if he isn’t starting in left.  And now there’s also Grady Sizemore to consider in the outfield rotation as well.  If healthy and playing well, he probably jumps Gomes as the top defensive replacement, with Gomes the top bat.  I put Nava in the 2 hole after a breakout season where he hit over 300 with 12 HR.  This left Pedroia (301/9/84/91/17) hitting third and Big Papi David Ortiz as the cleanup man, with his team leading 309/30/103 line (led the team in all 3 categories).  However Pedroia profiles more as a 2 man, so it wouldn’t shock me to see him move up a spot leaving Ortiz 3^rd, Napoli cleanup and maybe Nava 6^th behind Pierzynski.  Either way Ortiz, Pedroia and Mike Napoli (23 HR, 92 RBI) are the heart of this order.  And the addition of Pierzynski makes them even deeper with his 272 AVG, 17 HR and 70 RBI.  He’s also a vast upgrade defensively behind the plate.  Beyond the heart of the lineup, glove-first rookie Bogaerts can find his way with Jackie Bradley Jr. at the bottom of the lineup, while both play great defense up the middle.  The last piece of this offense is Will Middlebrooks who struggled in 94 games before going out with an injury.  He hit 17 HR but his AVG dropped to 227.  They want him to come back to his rookie form, but if he can’t he’ll stay in the bottom third of the batting order.

Defensively this team is a middle of the road club.  Victorino has won a Gold Glove as has Pedroia and Pierzynski.  But those guys are in right, at second and behind the plate.  Good, but not at the key spots.  Bradley and Bogaerts are great defensively, but unproven still.  However I suspect both will be fine in the field, and give the Sox great up the middle players.  Everyone else is fine, with Napoli being brutal at first.  But the defense shouldn’t be a problem overall.

On the mound, this team won’t disappoint.  John Lester was the ace leading the team with 15 Wins and 117 Ks to go with his 3.75 ERA.  John Lackey was a comeback player of the year nominee with his team best 3.52 ERA.  They sit atop the rotation.  Behind them, Clay Buccholz was lights out going 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA striking out 96 in 108 IP.  But injury limited him to 16 games.  He’s got the stuff and potential to take over as their ace, and he may finally live up to it all this year, after starting down the road last season.  And after those 3, the Sox have 3 guys left for 2 spots.  That’s good, because only 1 starter (Lester) made 30 starts for the champs last year.   Ryan Dempster came close to that with 29 starts, but wasn’t at his best going 8-9 with a 4.57 ERA.  He’s definitely on the back end of his career but still has the strikeout pitch going with 157 in only 171 IP.  He’s an innings eater at this point, and they hope to get a few good starts from him if necessary.  They really will rely on Felix Doubront and Jake Peavy to fill those last 2 slots.  Peavy is not the pitcher he was with San Diego and Doubront isn’t an ace.  But both are more than capable of eating some innings and turning in ERAs around 4, which is what they want from their 4 and 5 men.  And if either struggles, Ryan Dempster is around to eat up the slack.  In the bullpen they have plenty of quality arms, led by the AL Rolaids Reliever of the Year winner Koji Uehara who stepped into the closer’s role nicely at the end of the year with 21 Saves to go with his 1.09 ERA.  He will be the closer again for a full year this time.  If he struggles (because he actually has very little experience as a closer) Edward Mujica is an insurance play, saving 27 games in St. Louis last year, before falling apart at the end of the year to lose the job.  Both are natural set up men with closing experience, and between them the Red Sox should get good back end of the game performances. 

Outlook/Prediction

It’s hard not to like the defending champs.  Not only now, but for the foreseeable future.  They’ve got youth in Bogaerts, Bradley, Buccholz and the bullpen.  They’ve got stars in Lester, Pedroia and Ortiz.  And they’ve got plenty of quality veterans and strong clubhouse presences in Gomes, David Ross, Dempster, Napoli and Peavy.  There is no glaring hole and they have lots of options both in the rotation and batting order.  Their youngsters are buried at the bottom of the lineup to allow them to focus on defense and develop their offensive skills later.  And their biggest question mark is a young third baseman that hit 17 HR last year.

They really don’t have any major holes.  If Bradley can’t hack it, then Gomes or Sizemore step in and the defense shifts for optimal alignment.  Bogaerts is their only real option at short, so they’ll suffer his offensive missteps longer, if he has any.  They have the best backup catcher in the game in David Ross and 6 starters.  Any team can use more bats on the bench or arms in the bullpen, but by and large this team is set.  They addressed a backup plan to their closer and got a primary setup man with one signing.  And they upgraded the catching position immeasurably.  This team was good last year and only got better.

I think the Red Sox are a great team.  I think they played a little above themselves last year, but can definitely win this division.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t, but only because of the talent they are up against, not because of any lack of faith I have in the boys from Beantown.  But since I’m making picks, I’m taking the Red Sox to win the division, even if their win total drops closer to 90.