Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Tampa Bay Rays:            The next team in the AL East is the Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Carlos Pena

2B            Ben Zobrist

SS            Sean Rodriguez

3B            Evan Longoria

LF            Desmond Jennings

CF            B.J. Upton

RF            Matt Joyce

C              Jose Loboton

DH           Luke Scott

Projected Starting Rotation:

David Price

James Shields

Jeremy Hellickson

Wade Davis

Jeff Niemann

Projected Batting Order:

LF            Desmond Jennings

CF            B.J. Upton

3B            Evan Longoria

1B            Carlos Pena

2B            Ben Zobrist

DH           Luke Scott

RF            Matt Joyce

SS            Sean Rodriguez

C              Jose Loboton

The Tampa Bay Rays had a good season last year.  They played tough all year, even though it looked like they were out of the playoffs throughout September.  But they kept playing hard, and after an epic Red Sox collapse, they were able to take the Wildcard after finishing second in the AL East with a 91-71 record.  And though the Red Sox collapse made this all possible, if they weren’t on fire at the end of the season they never would have had a chance to make the playoffs.  The Rays are the rarest of breeds:  a competitive AL East team with a below average payroll.  They won the AL wildcard ahead of the heavy spending Red Sox, and the moderate spending Orioles and Blue Jays.  The year before they won the whole division ahead of the even the heaviest of spenders, the New York Yankees.  In fact, the Rays’ projected 2012 payroll is $62 million, dead last in their division and nearly 3 times less than the MLB leading New York Yankees ($204 million).  In fact 2 of the top 3 teams in projected 2012 payroll share this division (the aforementioned Yankees are first and the Red Sox come in at third with $167 million) with them, but they are still believed to be in the mix for not only the Wildcard, but also the AL East title.  At worst they are still expected to finish above the other two teams in the division, both of which outspend them (Toronto:  $82 million & Baltimore:  $73 million).  How can they do this?  They have a great front office and smart baseball people.  Joe Maddon puts strong teams on the field, and the Rays have a great eye for talent.  All of their stars or former stars have been home-grown and they succeed until they become to expensive for the team and are let go via trade (Scott Kazmir) or in free agency (Carl Crawford).  They’ve been great in the draft and get good value for the players they’ve traded away for years.  Now they are a good team with plenty of youth, and the possibility of being good for many years.  They hope that this year continues the trend of the past few years for them, and they find themselves playing some October baseball.  (the projected payroll numbers came to me courtesy of Jeff Passan’s column for Yahoo sports, found here: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AtblPPz5QcBu.U9TS1qMHL4RvLYF?slug=jp-passan_oakland_athletics_yoenis_cespedes_021312.  He got the numbers from Baseball Prospectus, found here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/)

This team was again led by their star third baseman, Evan Longoria.  Despite missing around 30 games, he still led the team with 31 HR and 99 RBI.  The rest of his numbers were way down though, as he only hit 244 with 3 SBs.  But he did take some walks and get himself a 355 OBP.  If healthy, he’s one of the top offensive threats in the majors.  He hopes to be healthier next year and for that to return him to the numbers we’ve seen in the past (280+ AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 80+ R and 10+ SB).  The one positive sign from his injury-shortened season is that he came within two HRs of his career high in 24 fewer games.  So while we aren’t sure where is speed and AVG will end up, he should give you good AVG, very good power, and bonus stolen bases.  And he is the heart and soul of this team. Casey Kotchman actually led the team with a 306 AVG last season.  Among the returning Rays, Matt Joyce had the highest AVG at 277.  With that, the young right fielder threw in 19 HR, 75 RBI and 13 SBs.  Those were the best numbers of his 4-year career and they came in his first season as a starter.  He certainly earned himself another season of starting in right, and they hope that these numbers will be the norm for him.  The Rays actually really need it to be, especially with so many other young guys that have question marks around them.  B.J. Upton has been a troubled player through his seasons in the majors.  They couldn’t find a spot for him, originally having him at second.  He was benched for lack of hustle, and has trouble focusing at times.  But when he is focused he is a dangerous player.  He was second on the team with 23 HRs and 82 R, and third on the team with 81 RBI.  He also led the team with 36 SBs.  His AVG was a little low (243) but he’s got tons of raw talent and plenty of tools.  He also needs to have another strong season for this team to contend.  The other major piece of this offense is Ben Zobrist.  Zobrist plays all over the field but is slotted to be at second this season.  Last year, he hit 269 with 20 HR, 91 RBI, 19 SBs and a team leading 99 R.  He needs to bring at least that much to the table next year, as he’s an important presence in this lineup.  The Rays have a lot of guys who can give you plus AVG, with 20 HR power and 20 SB potential.  And while not all of them need to be 20/20 guys, they all need to produce in different ways to make this offense go.  This isn’t a top offense, but it is effective.  And it has to continue to be, especially in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox offenses, and the improving Blue Jays offense.  The good news for this young team is that they have some help.  Former Ray Carlos Pena has returned to the team after a one-year stint with the Chicago Cubs.  Pena is a tremendous power hitter who plays Gold Glove defense at first base.  In addition, he walks a ton and is a boon to any team’s OBP.  Sure enough, last year was a prime example as he had 28 HR, 80 RBI and 72 R.  He walked over 100 times, and had a 357 OBP.  Despite his 225 AVG, he had a tremendous year.  In fact batting AVG seems to be one of only two parts of the game where he is lacking.  (Ks being the other.  150+ the last 3 years).  He’s consistent (back to back years with 28 HR and 80+ RBI) and is only two years removed from an All Star season that saw a 227 AVG with 39 HR and 100 RBI.  His bat packs a powerful punch, necessary to this team’s success.  In addition to Pena’s powerful bat, the Rays signed former Orioles’ DH Luke Scott to play the same position on their squad.  2008-2010 saw 23+ HR and 65+ RBI.  2 of those three years saw 25 HR and 70+ RBI.  Last year he only played in 64 games, hitting 220 with 9 HR and 22 RBI.  But if he’s healthy he’s another bat that can hit 20+ HR, as well as back up first base and left field.  Speaking of left field, that’s where we find young Desmond Jennings, who is being hailed as the second coming of Carl Crawford.  In his rookie season last year (as long as you don’t count 17 games in 2010), Jennings hit 259 with 10 HR, 25 RBI, 44 R and 20 SBs.  He produced that in only 63 games.  He’s slotted to open the season with the team this year, and probably bat leadoff.  This guy could steal 50 bases in a full season, and should be good for 100 R easily.  Also positive is the power, which translates to about 30 HR in a full year.  If he can hit like that, this team should be well on it’s way to competing for the postseason all year.

David Price was expected to be the ace of this rotation.  Instead, James Shields stepped up and showed that it could be him as well.  He led the team last year in Wins (16), ERA (2.82) and Ks (225).  He did all that with a 1.04 WHIP and a 217 BAA.  And perhaps the most impressive numbers were his 11 CGs and 4 SHOs.  Those numbers are Cy Young worthy, especially in the AL East against the mighty Yankees and Red Sox bats.  All the numbers point to his being able to repeat that sort of success in 2012.  Another pitcher who came out of nowhere to really impress was AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson was second amongst starters with 13 Wins and a 2.95 ERA.  He wasn’t a power pitcher like Shields or Price, but he did have a stellar 1.15 WHIP and led the team in BAA at 210.  He had 189 IP in 29 starts and showed that the Rays are loaded with pitching talent.  After those two surprise candidates came the pitcher we all expected to be good:  David Price.  He had an unfortunate record at 12-13.  But he was second on the team in IP with 224 (Shields led with 249!), and second in Ks with 218.  He also had a solid 3.49 ERA, a fantastic 1.14 WHIP and a good 230 BAA.  Those three guys are all legitimate aces, and they are the force that wins games for this Tampa Bay club.  After those three you find Wade Davis (11-10 4.45 ERA) and Jeff Niemann (11-7 4.06 ERA).  Both are very solid pitchers, who are able to get the job done in a tough division.  Those 5 are the starting rotation and are very good.  And the most frightening part about this group is that there is a youngster behind them in Matt Moore, who is a pitching phenom.  In 9 IP for the Rays last season he struck out 15 hitters and earned himself a 2.89 ERA.  In two stops in Double and Triple A last season, he combined for a 12-3 record with 210 Ks in 155 IP.  His ERA was a miniscule 1.92 and he projects to be another ace in this rotation.  Injury or ineffectiveness gets him into the rotation, and he may just lurk in the bullpen until then, ready to mow hitters down.  That bullpen features Kyle Farnsworth as a closer and Joel Peralta and J.P Howell setting up for him.  It’s not the strongest group, but a strong group of starters may prove that it’s not that important.  Pitching wins championships, and the Rays may have the best pitching in the division.

2012 Prediction…The Rays are the third fantastic team in the AL East.  The rules of the game state that no more than 2 teams can get into the playoffs.  So the question is will offense (Yankees), pitching (Rays) or a mix (Red Sox), win the day?  I always think good pitching beats good hitting, and for my money that means the Rays should play October baseball.  But no one can really know.  Yet if the Rays pitch well, and their offense plays up to it’s capability, I think this team could be the division winner easily, and could continue to be strong for years to come. 

Up next…Toronto Blue Jays.

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

New York Yankees:            Staying in the AL East, we look at the next team alphabetically, which is the New York Yankees.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Mark Teixeira

2B            Robinson Cano

SS            Derek Jeter

3B            Alex Rodriguez

LF            Brett Gardner

CF            Curtis Granderson

RF            Nick Swisher

C              Russell Martin

DH           Andruw Jones

Projected Starting Rotation:

C.C. Sabathia

Michael Pineda

Hiroki Kuroda

Ivan Nova

Phil Hughes

Projected Batting Order:

LF            Brett Gardner

SS            Derek Jeter

1B            Mark Teixeira

3B            Alex Rodriguez

2B            Robinson Cano

CF            Curtis Granderson

RF            Nick Swisher

C              Russell Martin

DH           Andruw Jones

The Yankees had a good year in 2011.  They won the toughest division in baseball with a 97-65 record, 6 games better than the second place Tampa Bay Rays.  And they were able to win that division, with a patchwork pitching staff made up of an ace (C.C.), a rookie (Nova), the old (Freddy Garcia) and the infirm (Bartolo Colon).  However, the Detroit Tigers stood them up in the divisional round of the playoffs. Detroit’s strong performances on the mound were a major reason behind their win.  The Yankees knew that while their hitters were fantastic, pitching is what failed them this offseason.  After facing a similar issue last offseason and failing to adequately address it, they decided to make trades and really shore up their pitching staff.

The Yankees’ hitters were, predictably, fantastic.  They have the best that money can buy.  The Yankees essentially had two MVP candidates on their team last year, and they probably robbed each other of votes.  Robinson Cano led the team with a 302 AVG last season.  With that, he chipped in 28 HR, 118 RBI and 104 R.  He was the Home Run Derby champion last year and continued on his strong season from 2010.  Cano is making a name for himself in the best offensive second baseman in baseball category.  That’s a plus because second base if often a place where you don’t get much offense.  Cano is a massive exception to that rule.  The other MVP candidate on this team last year was Curtis Granderson.  The centerfielder struggled in 2010.  He plays a pretty good defensive center, and has good speed and power.  But he always struggled against lefties, and never hit for a great AVG.  But he greatly improved last season.  Granderson hit 265 with 41 HR and 119 RBI.  He led the team in HR, RBI, R (136), Hits (153) and was second in SBs (25).  Those numbers are silly.  The only part of his game that wasn’t All Star Caliber was his AVG, which was still strong enough to not hurt the team.  But he did contribute in OBP (364) after drawing 85 walks.  Granderson went from a high upside player, to a leader on this team.  And he improved his AVG against lefties to 272 last year.  If Granderson can even come close to contributing like this in 2012, then the Yankees will be in great shape.  While the Yankees had no more hitters in the MVP discussion, they did have other strong offensive performances.  First baseman Mark Teixeira slumped a bit last year, hitting only 248.  But he still performed at a high level slugging 39 HRs and driving in 111.  He also scored 90 times.  Teixeira generally performs well at every level of offense (except speed), so that’s why a 39, 111, 90 line is considered a slump.  He still played Gold Glove caliber defense at first, and contributed heavily with the bat.  If he can get back a little of that AVG, which should be a return to his usual form, then it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t approach those power numbers again.  He’s a potential All Star every season.  We’ve covered the top 3 in HR for the Yankees, so let’s just keep going down the list.  Nick Swisher was fourth on this team with 23 HR.  Swisher generally isn’t considered a big power threat, and Yankee stadium’s friendly home confines probably have a lot to do with that number.  But he did hit 11 dingers on the road, and had a strong season outside of the power hitting 260 with 85 RBI and 81 R.  He’s not one of their big boppers, but he is an important part of this team and I think any team would be happy with 23 “bonus” home runs.  When you think of the Yankees, Derek Jeter is generally the first name that comes to mind.  And Jeter had another strong season last year, hitting 297 with 6 HR, 61 RBI, 84 R and 16 SBs.  It wasn’t a traditional Jeter season, but he is getting up there in age.  I think expecting a 300+ AVG, 20+ SBs and 100+ R is unreasonable at this point in his career.   He did get to 3,000 hits.  And he accomplished all of last season’s stats in only 130 games.  He’s been solid for years in New York, and looks to be coming back for another season at short.  They’ll need a plan for the future, but that future isn’t here yet.  Staying on the left side of the infield, we find the highest paid player in baseball, Alex Rodriguez.  A-Rod played in only 99 Games last year, as injuries continue to plague him.  He hasn’t’ played in 150 games since 2007.  That, coupled with the amount of money that he makes, has drawn him the ire of many New York fans.  But he’s only one year removed from a 30 HR, 125 RBI season, and, when healthy, he’s a threat to do that every year.  He hasn’t hit over 300 since 2008, but when you get that power, you are happy with 270+. And while his stolen bases have essentially disappeared, every other part of his game is still well above average.  In his limited time he hit 276 with 16 HR, 62 RBI and 67 R.  If he can have a healthy season, another All Star caliber performance is almost guaranteed.  To finish up the infield discussion we have Russell Martin, who was an All Star in his first season in New York.  Being in New York probably had a lot to do with that selection as he hit 237 when the year was over.  But he did play well behind the plate, taking over for Jorge Posada.  And while the AVG wasn’t great, he did slug 18 HR, drive in 65, score 57 R and steal 8 bases.  He wants to play better, but he was still pretty solid behind the plate.  The team leader in steals was left fielder Brett Gardner who hit at the top of this order.  His AVG wasn’t where he wanted it (259), and his OBP was a little below where he wanted it (345).  But he did steal 49 bases and score 87 R.  When he wasn’t getting on, Jeter or Granderson were.  The last offensive player to talk about is Andruw Jones.  Right now, he is the front-runner to be the DH.  In 77 games last season, he hit 247 with 13 HR and 33 RBI.  He can also fill in at the corner outfield spots.  After Jones, there has been speculation about free agent veterans getting signed and seeing DH time.   One of those guys is Eric Chavez, who hit 263 with 2 HR and 16 RBI in 58 games last season with New York.  There has also been speculation that Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez could be brought in to play DH, and both would bring something interesting to this club (Ibanez’s power, especially in Yankee stadium, and Damon’s AVG and still above average speed).  But the Yankees are pretty set offensively, and at best any free agent they pay to DH for them will hit no higher than 6^th in the order and possibly lower.  The point is, the Yankees are one of the best offensive clubs in baseball.  Possibly the best.  And while injuries can hurt them as much as any team (not much talent sitting on the bench) they are expected continue to be one of the best offensive clubs in the game.

The Yankees Achilles heel last season was their pitching.  After their ace C.C., things were hairy.  Ivan Nova was a pleasant surprise as a rookie.  In 27 starts, he went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA.  He wasn’t overpowering (258 BAA, 1.33 WHIP 135 Ks in 165 IP), and that strong Yankee offense should probably receive a large amount of credit for their part in his 16 wins.  However, if the Yankees want another championship, he can’t be the number 2 starter.  A.J. Burnett, the man who was supposed to be the number 2 starter, was truly frightening last season.  He went 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA.  He gave up a hit an inning (190 of both) and 109 ER.  But he’s been sent off to Pittsburgh in a move that was essentially a salary dump.  Phil Hughes was supposed to be a big part of this rotation last season after an All Star effort in 2010 that saw him win 18 games.  But injury limited him to 14 starts last year, with a 5-5 record and a 5.79 ERA.  The Yanks hope that injury was partly to blame for those numbers, none of which looked good.  (1.49 WHIP, 283 BAA)  New York needs him to come back strong and play much better this season.  The final two pitchers who took in a majority of 2011 starts were Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon.  Garcia had the better season, going 12-8 in 25 starts.  His 3.62 ERA was solid as was his 1.34 WHIP.  And while his 268 BAA wasn’t great, he was able to pitch through it and not give up too many runs.  He pitched well enough to be re-signed as starter insurance, and to be a long inning reliever out of the bullpen.  The other starter didn’t play as well.  Bartolo Colon came back to the majors and pitched pretty well, considering his arm was essentially glued back into his shoulder with stem cells.  He went 8-10 with an ERA of 4.  He essentially had the same season as Garcia, but with less luck (268 BAA, 1.29 ERA).  However concerns over his health and arm strength didn’t get him another year in pinstripes.   Coming in to take the place of Colon and Garcia are Hiroki Kuroda (free agent from the Dodgers) and Michael Pineda, who they acquired in a trade with the Mariners.  Kuroda comes to the Yankees as a control specialist.  He went 13-16 with the Dodgers last season, with a sparkling 3.07 ERA.  His BAA was 249 and his WHIP was 1.21.  He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys (161 Ks) but he threw over 200 IP.  He logs innings and gets groundballs.  He’s not a star but he’s a consistent veteran who gets groundballs and helps give the bullpen some rest.  I doubt he’ll have the same success in NY that he did in LA, but as long as he’s able to avoid the long ball and keep the ball on the ground, he should chip in a low ERA, 180+ IP and double digit wins.  And with that strong offense behind him, he could see a winning record this season.  After going out and getting a seasoned veteran to fill one rotation slot, the Yankees went the other way to fill the other.  They traded offensive weapon Jesus Montero to Seattle for young pitcher Michael Pineda.  The 6’7 righty has quite the ceiling.  He’s been compared to a right-handed C.C. Sabathia.  Having both on the team will help New York better understand that comparison, but they are more interested in how he stacks up to major league hitters.  His rookie year saw a 9-10 record with a 3.74 ERA.  While that’s not great, he had a miniscule 211 BAA and an impressive 1.10 WHIP.  He struck out 173 batters in 171 IP.  The sky is the limit for this youngster.  There are a couple things to be wary of.  His ERA could rise after leaving the pitcher friendly Safeco Field and moving to the best home run park in the majors, Yankee Stadium.  But he is a power pitcher, and he’s still very young.  He’s learning how to pitch to major leaguers, and he’ll continue to improve.  I think he could be good for double digit wins, even if that ERA creeps over 4.  If he can keep it below 4.50 and stay healthy, a power pitcher with his stuff and the Yankees’ offense behind him could win 15 games pretty easily.  In a few years, he could be pitching like C.C. did last season (C.C’s 2011:  19 Wins, 3.00 ERA, 230 K, 237 IP and 3 CGs).  That’s the new starting rotation that looks to get the Yanks into the postseason and beyond.  That group of starters will hand things off to the best closer in history (Mariano Rivera), and a strong bullpen that includes All Star David Robertson, former closer Rafael Soriano, veteran Pedro Feliciano and Joba Chamberlain.  This is a good-looking team that is looking to get some new rings this season.

2012 Prediction…The Yankees had one of the best offenses in baseball and a subpar pitching staff last season.  They were able to win the best division in baseball with essentially one good pitcher last year.  They’ve got at least three this season, and the same strong offense returning for 2012.  They’ve got to be considered the favorites for the division this year, especially with this re-vamped pitching staff.  If the hitters play like they have the past few years, and the pitchers can take care of their business effectively, then this team should be postseason bound.  They just hope that this season they can make it a little further into October.

Up next…Tampa Bay Rays.

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Boston Red Sox:            Staying in the AL East, we move to the next team, alphabetically, the Boston Red Sox.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Adrian Gonzalez

2B            Dustin Pedroia

SS            Mike Aviles

3B            Kevin Youkilis

LF            Carl Crawford

CF            Jacoby Ellsbury

RF            Cody Ross

C              Jarrod Saltalamacchia

DH            David Ortiz

Projected Starting Rotation:

Josh Beckett

Jon Lester

Clay Buchholz

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Andrew Miller

Projected Batting Order:

CF            Jacoby Ellsbury

2B            Dustin Pedroia

1B            Adrian Gonzalez

3B            Kevin Youkilis

DH            David Ortiz

LF            Carl Crawford

C              Jarrod Saltalamacchia

RF            Cody Ross

SS            Mike Aviles

The Red Sox were considered the prohibitive favorites for the AL penant last season.  After a terrible April and a shocking collapse in September, the Red Sox ended up blowing a 9 game lead to lose the Wildcard to their AL East counterparts, the Tampa Rays, on the last day of the season.  After such a shocking collapse, fingers were pointed and it came out that the Boston clubhouse was not the most conducive environment to baseball activities.  Pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey were eating beer and fried chicken in the clubhouse during games.  This, combined with the epic collapse, led to manager Terry Francona losing his job, Theo Epstein bolting for the Cubs, and the Red Sox having to deal with the failed expectations of last season with a new manager and new GM.  But Ben Cherington was the handpicked successor of Theo Epstein, and the team hopes he can continue what Epstein started.  The next step for the Red Sox was to get a new manager.  They hired former ESPN analyst Bobby Valentine, who hasn’t managed in the majors since 2002.  Some think they went for flash over substance (my personal opinion), but Bobby V is certainly a capable manager, and with the talent on the Red Sox roster he doesn’t have the toughest managing job on the planet.  In the end the Sox had a fairly quiet offseason, making a few trades and free agent pickups to add depth to the bullpen (Mark Melancon), the back of the rotation (Andrew Miller), bench depth (Nick Punto, Ryan Sweeney, Cody Ross, Kelly Shoppach) and take a long shot on some former major league starters by giving them minor league contracts (Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook).  Some look at this relative inactivity as a bad start for the new GM, but you could also argue that the Red Sox didn’t make any major moves because the didn’t have to.  They lost out on the wildcard on the last day of the season.  Their NL counterparts who had did the same thing (the Atlanta Braves) sat pat this offseason, figuring that they were one of the best teams in their league up until the final day of the season.  The Red Sox probably figure the same thing, and if they are right, they’d like to think that a bad start and a bad finish won’t keep them from the playoffs this season.

Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury were the leaders of this club last season.  Adrian Gonzalez led the team a 338 AVG and 117 RBI.  He was also third on the team with 27 HR.  That’s what the Sox were hoping for when they signed him, and he delivered.  Ellsbury was in the MVP discussion after his 2011 season.  He was second on the team with a 321 AVG and led the team with 32 HRs.  No one saw that power coming.  With those numbers, he delivered 105 RBI, 119 R and 39 SBs.  His 212 H were also second on the team, and with all those numbers he chipped in great defense in his first season back in center.  (He played left the year before when Mike Cameron manned center).  Ellsbury was always considered good, but he was great last year.  Add to that Adrian Gonzalez’s greatness, and this team has two players who could be MVPs in 2012.  They will lead this team.  They had a strong supporting cast including the time defying DH David Ortiz and former MVP Dustin Pedroia.  Ortiz was second on the team with 29 HR, and chipped in a 309 AVG and 96 RBI to go with that power.  That’s pretty good for someone who was considered done at a few points in the previous years.  He’ll probably be back for at least one more season in Fenway after his arbitration hearing.  Second baseman Dustin Pedroia also had a strong season at the top of the lineup.  He hit 307 with 21 HR and 91 RBI.  He also chipped in 102 R and 26 SBs as well as playing a fantastic defensive second base.  After those 4 hitters, other Red Sox starters struggled.  Kevin Youkilis was dealing with injuries last season, and was limited to 120 games.  He was never able to fully shake the injury hitting 258 with 17 HR and 80 RBI.  He was still a walks machine (373 OBP), but the injury still limited him enough to give him his first major slump year in the majors.  The bigger slump came from last year’s free agent signing, Carl Crawford.  Crawford came over from the Rays as a free agent before last season, and signed a big $142 million dollar contract.  He did not deliver in his first season in Boston.  He hit 255 with only 18 SBs and 65 R.  He missed 30 games due to injury and spent most of the year batting near the bottom of the Boston lineup.  He’s a difficult fit as it is.  He doesn’t walk enough to be a good leadoff hitter, he’s never hit more than 20 HRs, and he while his glove is strong, his arm keeps him stuck in leftfield.  He likes to hit second, but MVP Dustin Pedroia is pretty well entrenched there, and Ellsbury is the far superior leadoff man.  So even when healthy, you are looking at a $142 million dollar leftfielder batting in the bottom third of the lineup.  That does speak to the strength of this team, but it already makes some fans dubious of what Crawford is getting paid.  Underperforming on top of that will really not endear him to the Fenway Faithful.  He is looking for a bounce-back year nearly as much as the Boston brass is.  The rest of the team is made up of streaky catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, new right field tandem of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, and a hole at shortstop that will be filled with a combination of Nick Punto and Mike Aviles.  Salty hit a disappointing 235, but had decent pop in his 103 games, with 16 HR and 56 RBI.  Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney look to split time in right.  Sweeney hit 265 with 1 HR and 65 RBI in 103 games.  Cody Ross hit 240 with 14 HR and 52 RBI for the Giants last season.  Neither of these guys is a star.  But both play solid on both sides of the plate.  And Darnell McDonald lurks on the bench if those two struggle.  A similar platoon situation will be found at short next season.  They traded away their top two guys at that position in this offseason (Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie).  Scutaro was a great shortstop for them last season, but they feel that the rest of their lineup is strong enough to make up for any lack at short.  Aviles has a great bat and bad glove.  Punto is the opposite.  They will share time in the infield while youngster Jose Iglesias, who has the best glove of the three of them and worst bat, will lurk to steal playing time as well.  The offense of Boston should be formidable this season, even if they don’t get the production they want at short and right.  But the key this season will be bounce-back seasons from Crawford and Youkilis.  If they can play like they usually do, then this will probably be one of the strongest offenses in baseball next year. 

If the Red Sox really want to make some noise next season, then it will be their pitching that separates them.  As good as they are with the bats, there are teams in their own division that are as good offensively (the Rays and Blue Jays are both pretty solid) and one team that is better (the Yankees).  However their pitching looks stronger on paper, and if they can outpitch their AL East counterparts they should be enjoying some October baseball.  Jon Lester was the ace of this staff last year, leading the team with 15 Wins and 182 Ks.  He had a very solid 3.47 ERA to go with a strong WHIP (1.26) and BAA (234).  Those are good numbers, especially in the AL East.  He looks to deliver more of the same in 2012.  Josh Beckett was a major comeback player last season, leading the Red Sox staff with a 2.89 ERA.  He joined Lester as the only Red Sox pitchers to make 30 starts, and Beckett led the team with 193 IP.  (Lester had 191).  He gave up fewer hits (146) and had the best WHIP (1.03) and BAA (211) of any Boston starter.  He would have liked some better run support, but his 13-7 record was still pretty good.  Beckett and Lester are the leaders of this staff.  But they need help behind them if Boston wants to make the playoffs.  The number three starter of last season was John Lackey.  Lackey has become public enemy number one after signing a monster deal and delivering below average numbers.  He did his best Barry Zito impression last season, going 12-12 in 28 games with a mammoth 6.41 ERA.  He’ll be lost for this entire season with Tommy John surgery and some Red Sox fans couldn’t be happier.  He needs to come back a lot better, or else his contract will go down as one of the worst in baseball history.  The number three starter for this season will be Clay Buccholz.  Buccholz played well last season, but back trouble essentially cost him the entire second half, and he made only 14 starts total last year.  He went 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA and his WHIP and BAA were solid.  The only concern about him for next season is his health.  Speaking of questionable health, Daisuke Matsuzaka is slotted to be the number 4 starter if healthy this season.  Matsuzaka has continued to struggle after his rookie season, going 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA in 7 starts last year.  He pitched one game out of the bullpen last year, and if he doesn’t improve it’s certainly possible he spends more time out there in 2012.  They don’t want that, but he’ll almost certainly be a part of the major league roster regardless next year, due to the amount of money he is owed.  Injury questions/ ineffectiveness in the back of the rotation has led to lots of other suitors wanting to pitch in Boston.  Andrew Miller has a strong chance to see some starting time, and I’ve tentatively slotted him in as the 5^th starter at this point.  In 12 starts last year, he went 6-3 for Boston with a 5.12 ERA.  He’s had a high ERA his whole career, but they seem to want to give him a shot.  However he needs to perform if he doesn’t want to end up in the bullpen.  One bullpen pitcher is going to be given a shot to start some in spring training.  Fire-baller Daniel Bard wants to start.  He began his career as a starter and the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen in the minors.  Bard has been nasty as a set-up man in Boston.  In 70 games, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP to go with a 179 BAA.  He struggled in the second half, which drove all of those numbers up.  But he still struck out 74 batters over 73 innings, and has good stuff.  He’ll get a long look, and I imagine there’s a good chance he’ll break the starting rotation at some point in the season.  After him, there are multiple other options for back of the rotation starters including current bullpen pitcher Alfredo Aceves and veterans Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook.  The Red Sox aren’t looking for a star, just some consistency as they had 10 different guys start games for them last season.  If they can get some good starts out of those guys to fill in for either injury or ineffectiveness, then the Red Sox hope that their offense will help these guys earn some extra wins and help send them to the playoffs.  These starters are hoping to get the team into the late innings where new set up man Mark Melancon and new closer Andrew Bailey will look to close out the games with wins for Boston.

2012 Prediction…The Red Sox are a good team. They were expected to win the pennant last season and fell short.  With lesser expectations, they might be able to surprise some people this year.  The bad news for them is that they play in the toughest division in baseball.  The good news, is that they have the second highest payroll.  They will have challenges from the Yankees and Rays, both of which are very good.  The Yankees can outspend them, and the Rays are young and talented.  And the Blue Jays are very talented too.  At best, only two of these teams can make the playoffs.  But with two strong teams out west, a wildcard slot isn’t guaranteed to the East this season.  It’s a two-edged sword for the Sox who are very talented, but play really strong competition.  If their pitching is as strong as it should be, they hope they can measure up and win the division.  But if it struggles, they still have a shot at the wildcard.  I’d say the chances are pretty good that we will see them in the postseason.  But, regardless, at least one good team from the east won’t make it to October.  The Red Sox  hope it won’t be them for the second season in a row.

Up next…New York Yankees

Payoff Pitch- Casual Observances of a Baseball Fan

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Baltimore Orioles:            Having finished the National League, we now move to American League.  Our first team will be from the Eastern Division, and they are the Baltimore Orioles.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Mark Reynolds

2B            Brian Roberts

SS            J.J. Hardy

3B            Josh Bell

LF            Nolan Reimold

CF            Adam Jones

RF            Nick Markakis

C            Matt Wieters

DH            Chris Davis

Projected Starting Rotation:

Jake Arrieta

Tommy Hunter

Zach Britton

Brian Matusz

Wei-Yin Chen

Projected Batting Order:

2B            Brian Roberts

CF            Adam Jones

RF            Nick Markakis

C            Matt Wieters

1B            Mark Reynolds

DH            Chris Davis

LF            Nolan Reimold

SS            J.J. Hardy

3B            Josh Bell

The Orioles of 2011 were similar to the Orioles of 2010, 2009, and essentially every year before that from the time Cal Ripken Jr. left the diamond.  At 69-93, they had the third worst record in the AL, good enough for last in the mighty AL East.  This team has consistently been fielding sub-500 squads and most years are bad enough to field teams that lose at least 90 games.  They don’t have the money to roll with the big boys in their division, but that excuse has lost traction after the Blue Jays and Rays have had much more success with actually the inverse amount of money.  (The Rays have had greater success than the Blue Jays, but have less money to spend).  So there are problems in Baltimore that have no easy fix.  But after 14 straight losing seasons, something is wrong with the culture of baseball in Baltimore.  It starts at the top with Peter Angelos, considered one of the worst owners in baseball.  His heavy hand has pushed many general managers away, and their new GM for this season, Dan Duquette, was pretty far down their list of desired candidates.  That list included Jerry Dipoto, who opted to take the Anaheim Angels position, and an assistant GM in Toronto, Tony LaCava, who actually chose to stay an assistant in Toronto rather than take the head job in Baltimore.  (Ouch)   For more about the Orioles offseason and the GM/owner issues, I would suggest Jeff Passan’s great article for Yahoosports that can be found here: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AtpPwTBvZGlVPEHr8dpxF2YHU84F?slug=jp-passan_hot_stove_daily_orioles_angelos_011212.  The long and short of it is Baltimore has a bad reputation in baseball.  They couldn’t get Mark Teixeira, a Baltimore native, to play there even after offering him a huge contract.  Free agents don’t want to go to Baltimore.  And until the culture there changes, I can’t imagine a reversal of the Orioles’ fortunes in the near future. 

Last year’s team had pieces of an offense.  Strong pieces.  They were decent in the first month of the season, and people thought they might finally be putting something into place.  But the hitters slowed down and the pitching fell apart, just in time for them to start playing their division rivals and getting slaughtered.  Departed DH Vladmir Guerrero led the team with a 290 AVG.  Of the remaining Orioles, Nick Markakis is the leader in AVG at 284.  That AVG came with 15 HR, 73 RBI and 72 R for the right fielder who is considered one of the best players currently calling Camden Yards home.  However, he’s not the superstar they envisioned him becoming when they gave him his big contract.  Mark Reynolds led the team with 37 HR and 86 RBI.  But we all know the book on Reynolds.  That power comes with a low AVG (221 last season) and one of the highest K rates in the MLB (196 last season).  He’s slotted to play first base this season, after splitting time between first and third last year.  For my money I might have him at third base with Chris Davis at first, enabling either Wilson Betemit or Endy Chavez to play every day.  (Betemit as DH, Chavez in left moving Reimold to DH).  Davis came to the Orioles part way through last season in a trade with the Rangers.  In a combined 59 games for Baltimore and Texas he hit 266 with 5 HR and 19 RBI.  He’s had limited success since being called up to the MLB in 2008.  Playing mainly first base (though he also has third base eligibility giving Buck Showalter a million different lineup options) his most successful season was in 2009 when he played in 113 games hitting 24 HR but coupling that with a 238 AVG.  He’s expected to get some time at first and DH this year, and is a high-risk high reward candidate who can provide some serious power to this Oriole team.  To add to this team’s corner infield influx (Mark Reynolds plays first and third, Chris Davis plays first, third, and will probably DH, Josh Bell plays third, Mark Antonelli plays second and third and Wilson Betemit plays first, third, short, second and will DH), youngster Josh Bell (you know, one of the guys from the last of my many parenthetical asides) is slotted to get a lot of playing time at third this season.  Bell played in only 26 games last season, hitting 164 with 6 RBI.  The year before he played in 53 games with a 214 AVG and 3 HR and 12 RBI.  He hasn’t hit well enough to cement the starting job, and if he doesn’t hit this year, then there are about a million guys on the roster waiting to take over for him.  Staying on that side of the infield we have J.J. Hardy, who had a pretty good season last year hitting 269 with 30 HR, 80 RBI and 76 R.  He’s been streaky his whole career since being called up in 2005.  But he was an All Star in Milwaukee in 2008, hitting 283 with 24 HR and 74 RBI.  The year before saw 26 HR and 80 RBI to go with a 277 AVG.  He plays a good defensive shortstop and bounced back from a weak 2010 with 30 HRs last season.  He may be streaky, but he gets his numbers in the end.  The final piece of this infield is longtime Oriole Brian Roberts, who just hasn’t been able to stay healthy lately.  His last healthy season was 2009, when he hit 283 with 30 SBs and 110 R.  When healthy, he was one of the best leadoff men in the game, consistently hitting in the high 200s, with an OBP over 350 (career high 378 in 2008), averaging close to 40 SBs a season (career high 50 in 2007), and a lock for 100 R every season.  But since getting a concussion in 2010, he’s played in less than 100 games over the last two seasons, playing in a career low 39 games last season with a 221 AVG, 6 SBs and only 18 R.  If he can get healthy he should be a force at the top of the lineup (though at age 34 his speed may be declining).  Otherwise the Orioles will continue to struggle to score runs.  Catcher Matt Wieters is one of the best in the AL.  He’s improved every season and last year continued hitting 262 with 22 HR, 68 RBI and 72 R.  He’s a smart hitter with great raw talent who is still getting better.  Based on his current rate of improvement, we could see a 280 AVG with 30 HR and 100 RBI this season.  The last part of this offense is the outfield which features a star in Adam Jones (280 with 25 HR, 83 RBI, and 12 SB) the aforementioned Nick Markakis and a combination of third year player Nolan Reimold (247 with 13 HR, 45 RBI, 40 R and 7 SB in 83 games) and Endy Chavez (301 AVG, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 37 R and 10 SB in 83 games last season).  And they just recently signed Nick Johnson to a contract because the one thing this team needed is another corner infielder.  (Sarcasm)  There are a million different ways to put together this lineup (personally I put Chris Davis at first, Mark Reynolds at third, Endy Chavez in left and Nolan Reimold as DH), and there are plenty of good, talented young hitters who can help this lineup contend offensively. 

As good as this team looks with the bats, it looks like it’ll struggle on the bump.  The ace of this team from last year was Jeremy Guthrie, but he’s no longer with the team.  In a move that some consider financially motivated, (Guthrie was up for arbitration and the Orioles sent him away before his hearing came up) Guthrie was sent to Colorado for Jason Hammel.  Guthrie led the team with a 4.33 ERA and 130 Ks.  Neither number is spectacular and both help paint a picture of the Orioles pitching struggles last season.  The one piece of good news in the rotation last season was rookie Zach Britton, who started 28 games and led the team with 11 Wins.  He wasn’t an ace (11 Losses, 4.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 276 BAA), but he was solid and second on the team with 154 IP (behind Guthrie at 200).  He’ll probably be the ace of 2012.  (Ouch)  After him, we have former Ranger Tommy Hunter.  Hunter came over to the club halfway through last season with Chris Davis.  Hunter was hurt last year, and due to Texas’ wealth of starting options found himself in the bullpen for the only 8 games he played in Arlington.  But he made 11 starts in Baltimore after the trade, going 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA.  He obviously struggled giving up 88 hits in only 69 IP.  Opponents hit 305 against him.  Hunter had success in the past few years, with a 13-4 record in 2010 and 9-6 in 2009.  His best season had a 3.73 ERA in a hitter’s park in Texas.  In fact, he was 1-1 in his 8 games in Arlington last season with a 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 218 BAA.  Not sure why he struggled so much at Camden, but his ceiling is obviously pretty high and they are hoping that he can rediscover some of that Texas magic.  If he can he may end up being the ace of this young staff.  Jake Arrieta is the next pitcher in the rotation.  In his second full season in Baltimore last year he went 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA.  He had some bad luck in his 28 starts, giving up a decent amount of runs, but holding hitters to a 253 BAA.  If he wants to improve on that ERA he has to walk a few less (59 BBs in 119 IP).  But he’s at least got some experience under his belt and comes back in as the third starter on this club.  After those three guys, there are a lot of different pitchers looking to break the starting 5.  Brian Matusz bombed last season going 1-9 in 12 starts with a horrid 10.69 ERA and a 372 BAA.  However he’s still in the mix for this starting rotation.  Taiwanese free agent Wei-Yin Chen has a good chance to break into the rotation this season.  He’s got a low-mid 90s fastball that he commands well and a good mid-80’s slider that he doesn’t command quite as well.  A Japanese free agent Tsuyoshi Wada also has a good shot to make the rotation.  With those two there is long time Oriole Chris Tillman, who only made 13 starts last season, going 3-5.  Tillman has been decidedly subpar in his 3 seasons in the majors, with an ERA north of 5 every season.  If he wants to start he needs to get it done this season.  And the last piece of this starting puzzle is new Oriole Jason Hammel.  You have to like his chances to make the rotation as he started 27 games last season for the Rockies.  He had 3 years of starting experience in Coors field, not to mention some starts in Tampa Bay.  He struggled last season going 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA.   However, that makes him a relative star in Baltimore and he has a good chance to make the rotation. In the end, Baltimore has a lot of arms, but none of them are proven.  They don’t pitch well, and they play in a division with some monster bats.  Their bullpen isn’t much better.  Matt Lindstrom and Alfredo Simon are solid and Kevin Gregg has experience at closer (not good experience, but experience).  The bottom line is the Orioles don’t pitch well in either the bullpen or starting rotation.  That’s going to hurt them next year, and every year for the foreseeable future until they can improve.

2012 Outlook…The Baltimore Orioles play in the toughest division in baseball.  They are the worst team in that division.  They don’t have the money to compete with the Red Sox or Yankees, but the Rays and Blue Jays have succeeded without those big salaries.  They have a young, talented group of hitters, but lots of struggling arms.  Pitching wins championships, and until the Orioles can pitch better, they won’t be winning any division titles.  They have a bad reputation in baseball and it will take them a while to overcome that.  Until they do, they will have to improve from within, using their farm system to produce some major league pitching.  I don’t see it happening for them this season, and they will probably continue to struggle in 2012.   

Up next...Boston Red Sox.

Payoff Pitch- Casual Observances of a Baseball Fan

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

San Francisco Giants:            The final team we will look at the NL will be the San Francisco Giants.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Aubrey Huff

2B            Freddy Sanchez

SS            Ryan Theriot

3B            Pablo Sandoval

LF            Brandon Belt

CF            Melky Cabrera

RF            Nate Schierholtz

C              Buster Posey

Projected Starting Rotation:

Tim Lincecum

Matt Cain

Ryan Vogelsong

Madison Bumgarner

Barry Zito

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Ryan Theriot

2B            Freddy Sanchez

C              Buster Posey

3B            Pablo Sandoval

1B            Aubrey Huff

RF            Nate Schierholtz

LF            Brandon Belt

CF            Melky Cabrera

The Giants weren’t pleased with 2011.  After coming off a World Series title in 2010, they ended the season with a respectable 86-76 record, but didn’t make the playoffs as they finished the season 8 games behind the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.  One of the big reasons for last season’s struggles was the loss of 2010’s offensive hero, Buster Posey.  After he got hurt the Giants dragged along until they were able to trade for Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Beltran.  Then they made a push, but came up short. 

This team doesn’t have a lot in the way of offense.  Tim Brown wrote a great article for Yahoo sports talking about the Giants offensive and defensive splits.  He essentially points out that the pitching is so good that they don’t need much offense to win.  To illustrate, the Giants finished in the bottom 5 in NL offenses every year except for one in the last 8 years, and the only year they finished in 9^th (out of 16 NL teams), they ended up winning the World Series.  (for the whole story visit this link: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjpyxH5Yn.WYttH4dU5F6G.FCLcF?slug=ti-brown_hot_stove_daily_san_francisco_giants_posey_013012).  If this team is going to win, they need some semblance of offense and that’s got to start with Posey.  After him, he’ll need the support of veterans Huff, Sandoval and Sanchez and for other youngsters to grow into their roles as well (Brandon Belt).  Last season’s team was led offensively by Huff and Sandoval.  Huff led the team with a 246 AVG, (that’s right, no one who qualified for the batting title on this team hit higher than 250) and Pablo led the team with 23 HR and 70 RBI.  The good news for the Giants, is that injuries are mostly to blame for their lack of offense.  Only two players were able to play in over 120 games, and only one in 150 or more games.  The team-batting champ, Huff, hit 246 with 12 HR and 59 RBI.  That’s miserable offensive output from your first baseman.   The other corner of the infield showed some promise.  Pablo Sandoval had a breakout campaign in 09, only to put on a ton of weight and be abysmal in 2010.  Last year he lost some weight and we saw some improvement.  He only played in 117 games, but hit 315 with 23 HR and 70 RBI.  If the Giants are going to contend this year, he’s going to be a major part of it.  After Huff, Posey and Sandoval, a lot of the Giants are new faces.  Melky Cabrera comes in to play center after a career year in Kansas City.  Angel Pagan is in town to challenge Nate Schierholtz for playing time in right, or Cabrera for playing time in center.  Ryan Theriot is pushing youngster Brandon Crawford for playing time at short.  I’m not sure who starts the season at short. If Crawford does, then expect Melky Cabrera to lead off, or Angel Pagan if he can force his way into the lineup.  There’s a lot of wait and see with this team.  If Huff is bad, then Belt will move to first and give Pagan some playing time.  If Theriot doesn’t impress then Crawford will start at short.  Or maybe Mike Fontenot.  There are a lot of questions for the Giants offensively.  But if Posey and Pablo deliver, then this team should have the pitching to make some noise out west. 

And let’s talk about that pitching staff.  It’s led by former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum led the team with 13 Wins, 220 Ks and had a tidy little 2.74 ERA, good enough for second among the Giants starters.  But here’s something that most people didn’t realize.  Tim Lincecum had a losing record last season.  That’s right.  Those numbers were good enough for 13 wins and 14 losses.  That may give you an idea of what this pitching staff has to deal with in terms of run support.  The number 2 starter, Matt Cain, also had a fantastic year.  He went 12-11 with a 2.88 ERA and 179 Ks.  His 217 BAA was best among San Fran starters as was his 1.08 WHIP.  He also led the team with 221 IP.  He may not mow hitters down like Lincecum, but this guy would be the ace on many other staffs.   That brings us to Madison Bumgarner, the third Giants pitcher to make over 30 starts and record over 200 IP.  He wasn’t as dominant as the two guys in front of him (13-13 record, 3.21 ERA, 260 BAA) but he did have double digit wins, and a solid ERA to go with 191 Ks, which was second on the team.  The surprise of this pitching staff last year was Ryan Vogelsong.  Vogelsong spent 2000-2006 mainly pitching in relief for the Giants and Pirates.  (He did make 26 starts for Pittsburgh in 2004 going 6-13 with a 6.50 ERA).  After the 06 season, he was out of baseball until last year when he was able to make the Giants team.  He then shocked the team in 28 starts, going 13-7 and leading the Giants with a 2.71 ERA.  And it doesn’t look like a fluke.  He gave up 164 Hits in 179 IP, had a 1.25 WHIP and a nice 244 BAA.  If last season is an indication of him having figured out how to pitch in the majors, then watch out.  That would give the Giants 4 All Star caliber starters.  Their 5^th starter is Barry Zito, who has never lived up to his monster contract.  And I don’t mean that he just hasn’t pitched to the level of all that money, I mean that he’s been terrible, with a losing record and an ERA north of 4 every year since joining the Giants.  He makes too much money to not pitch, so the Giants hope he won’t hurt them too bad when he’s out there.  Clay Hensley lies in wait if he struggles too much. 

2012 Prediction…The world will end on Dec. 21^st.  Just kidding.  The Giants recipe for success has been fantastic pitching paired with slightly below average hitting.  The year they got it right they won it all.  However, the Giants usually don’t live up to their lofty expectations of slightly below average offense.  They are usually terrible.  Absolutely abysmal.  If they can have Posey and Sandoval give this team some semblance of offense (like 1-2 runs a game) then this team could contend in the weak NL West.  However I think that they will have trouble upsetting a strong Diamondbacks team that will be looking to win their second straight NL West title.

Up next…Baltimore Orioles. 

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

San Diego Padres:            The next team on our list is the San Diego Padres.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Yonder Alonso

2B            Orlando Hudson

SS            Jason Bartlett

3B            Chase Headley

LF            Will Venable

CF            Cameron Maybin

RF            Carlos Quentin

C              Nick Hundley

Projected Starting Rotation:

Tim Stauffer

Cory Luebke

Edinson Volquez

Dustin Moseley

Clayton Richard

Projected Batting Order:

CF            Cameron Maybin

SS            Jason Bartlett

RF            Carlos Quentin

3B            Chase Headley

1B            Yonder Alonso

2B            Orlando Hudson

LF            Will Venable

C              Nick Hundley

The Padres had a bad 2011.  Their 71-91 record was tied for second worst in the NL.  (Worst was the Astros.  The Padres tied with the Cubs for second worst).  However they are clearly a re-building team and they are getting closer and closer to contending, especially in the weak NL West.  This offseason saw GM Josh Byrnes engineer a massive trade with the Cubs that sent Mike Rizzo to Chicago for hard throwing righty Andrew Cashner.  And while Cashner is slated to begin the season in the bullpen, a move to the rotation probably isn’t too far off.  In addition he made another massive trade with the Reds, sending talented pitcher Mat Latos to Cincinnati for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso and two prospects, among them their future catcher Yasmani Grandal.  They then made two low risk trades to bring in Huston Street and Carlos Quentin.  With this team, they hope to contend this year in the West, while continuing to groom some of their many highly touted prospects to come up and join the Major League club. 

This team is not built around offense.  Part of that is because Petco is where offense goes to die.  But also because they haven’t had any true offensive weapons since Adrian Gonzalez got traded to the Red Sox.  Ryan Ludwick led the team with 11 HR and 64 RBI last season.  That’s abysmal.  They do still have the team leader in AVG from last season, Cameron Maybin.  But that AVG was 264, and that’s perhaps even more gag inducing.  The good thing about Maybin is that he was able to score 82 R in a shortened season of 137 games, and also swipe 40 bags.  In a full season, 100 R and 50 SBs aren’t out of the question, especially if someone halfway decent is attempting to drive him in.  The other top of the order bat for San Diego, SS Jason Bartlett, also had a subpar year in limited duty.  His 245 AVG is as bad as his 308 OBP.  He was able to swipe 23 bags, but he could have had more if he were ever on base.  This guy has no power, especially in Petco.  (2 HR last season).  But they pay him to work the count, get on base, move Maybin over, and occasionally steal bases and come around to score himself.  Again it’s hard to blame him for not coming around to score with what he has hitting behind him.  But if it wouldn’t matter if Pujols, Fielder and Votto were hitting behind him if he weren’t on base.  You can’t score runs if you don’t get on base.  There’s a Kiner-ism for you.  With these two missing time, we saw a lot of Will Venable at the top of the lineup, and he turned in a similar line to the guys he replaced:  a 246 AVG, with a 310 OBP and 26 SBs in even fewer games (121).  These guys have plenty of speed, they just need to find some gaps and come around to score.  If everyone’s healthy, Venable hits later in the lineup, but he’s a solid hitter who could move up to the top if one of these two struggles.  So if some combination of those 3 guys is leading off, who’s knocking them in?  Well that job goes to new comers Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso, and a Padre from last year, Chase Headley.  Headley is the only one in the trio with any experience in Petco.  His first two full seasons in San Diego saw an AVG in the low 260s with 11 & 12 HR, and 64 & 58 RBI.  He also chipped in around 15 SBs both years.  However he saw limited action last season with 4 HR and 44 RBI in 381 ABs.  He was on his way to a career high in SBs (already had 13 in half as many games), and was also hitting above his average at 289.  They have been hoping he would turn into a star for a while, and last season he might have been on his way to turning a corner.  The Padres hope he can keep that fire going in a full season this year.  The other guy they have high hopes for is Carlos Quentin.  He is best remembered for his All Star season in 2008, which saw him hit 36 HR and drive in 100 in an injury-shortened season of 130 games.  He was in the MVP discussion before he got hurt.  He hasn’t since found that magic again, but he’s hit over 20 HRs in every season, all of them in 131 games or less.  So it’s a two edged sword here.  He’s very consistent with his power and his injuries.  Expect 20 HR and 30 games on the DL.  However the hope is there, that if he ever played a full season, we could again be looking at 30 HR and 100 RBI.  But in Petco 30 HR is probably the ceiling in a weak division with strong pitching.  A more reasonable expectation for a full season is 25 HR, though, history tells us, to expect 130 games, and, taking into account his new home stadium, perhaps 17 HRs.  The real hope for the future of San Diego is their new first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Alonso hit 330 with 5 HR and 15 RBI for Cincinnati in only 88 ABs last year.  That was even better than most scouts were hoping for.  But it’s not too surprising.  In 2 Triple A seasons, he hit 296 with 24 HR and 112 RBI.  This guy has great talent and is getting better every year.  There are concerns that his power won’t translate at Petco (no one’s does) since he’s not a true HR hitter (averaged 12 HRs a year in Triple A). But if he can hit for a high AVG and drive in runs this guy will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.  That’s the heart of the Padres lineup.  They have some help from veteran Orlando Hudson at second and Nick Hundley holding Yasmani Grandal’s place behind the plate.  Scary they are not, but the Padres are hoping they will be effective enough behind a talented young pitching staff to contend, if not this season, then in the near future.

The Padres pitching staff looks completely different this year than it did last season. 2011’s leader in Wins, Aaron Harang, has since moved on to the Dodgers as a free agent.  The team leader in ERA and Ks was traded to Cincinnati in the offseason.  But we’re not just talking about the starting rotation.  The back end of the bullpen in completely different with Mike Adams being traded to Texas in the middle of last season and free agent Heath Bell departing for Miami in the offseason.  Some would be concerned with all those pitchers departing, especially since pitching was one of the only areas where the Padres performed well.  They had the third lowest team ERA in the league.  But Josh Byrnes knows that his farm system has a wealth of talented young arms, some ready to join the major leagues today, others a few years down the road.  Tim Stauffer is the current ace of this staff, being the most experienced pitcher remaining.  He and Mat Latos were the only pitchers on the staff to start over 30 games (both had 31 starts).  He was also second on the team in IP with 185.  (Latos led in that category with 194 IP).  However, after those numbers, everything else was rather pedestrian.  His ERA was 3.73 and he only struck out 128 hitters.  His WHIP was solid at 1.25 and his BAA wasn’t terrible at 258.  Nothing was terrible, but nothing was great.  And even playing in a great pitchers park like Petco only netted him a 9-12 record.  He’s in his 6^th season, but only his second full year as a starter.  They are hoping that he can continue to make strides and help lead these young guys.  One of those young guys is Cory Luebke who had a 6-10 record in 17 starts.  He was a true bright spot with a 3.29 ERA, and a sparkling 1.07 WHIP and 209 BAA.  He also had 154 Ks in 139 IP.  He had a fantastic season and showed terrific growth in his second year in the majors.  If this is a sign of things to come, the Padres will be thrilled with Luebke as a leader of this rotation.  The other two young starters had mixed results.  Dustin Moseley had a terrible 3-10 record.  His ERA was great a 3.30.  But he gave up almost as many hits as IP, had a 255 BAA and only 64 Ks.  They are hoping he continues to figure out major league hitting, and Petco is a great place to learn to pitch.  (I may have mentioned that Petco is a pitcher’s park…a couple of times…I’ll do it again).  The other young pitcher, Clayton Richard, had a better record than Moseley, but his other numbers weren’t as strong.  He was 5-9 with a 3.88 ERA and 272 BAA.  Both of these guys are young, and learning, and in a forgiving environment to figure things out.  Neither projects to be a star, but both will be solid.  Their newest starter is former Red Edinson Volquez.  Volquez came over with Alonso in the Latos deal and projects to be the number 3 starter.  He didn’t play great in Cincinnati last year, going 5-7 in 20 starts.  His ERA was cringe-worthy (5.71), but his other numbers weren’t as bad.  His 254 BAA was pretty average and he struck out almost one hitter per inning.  Great American Ballpark is a bandbox.  Petco, for those of you just joining this post, is a great pitcher’s park.  Volquez has great stuff and a live arm.  If he can continue to improve, and maybe find some of his 08 magic, he’ll have some great seasons in San Diego and be a valuable asset in this organization.  This starting rotation will try to get their team into the late innings with a lead, where they can hand it over to Micah Owings and Luke Gregerson to hold things over until new closer Huston Street can close things out.  Street is a proven commodity, though he’s had his shaky seasons.  But if he can turn in a strong performance this year, and the other pieces of that bullpen can bridge the gap, then the Padres should have strong enough pitching this season to fit in with their NL West counterparts.

2012 Prediction…The Padres are young.  They are re-building.  They are close to contending.  But this isn’t the season.  I will say that this team in a different division is years away from making any noise.  But they are building this team around pitchers, and pitching wins championships.  It won’t win one this year, but it’s not hard to imagine this team contending for some NL West crowns in the futures.    

Up next…San Francisco Giants.