Oakland Athletics 2015 Team Breakdown

Oakland Athletics

2014 Finish:              88-74 (Second Place)

Projected Batting Order

CF        Coco Crisp

3B       Brett Lawrie

2B       Ben Zobrist

DH       Billy Butler

RF        Josh Reddick

1B       Ike Davis

C          Stephen Vogt

LF        Sam Fuld

SS        Marcus Semien

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

RHP                 Sonny Gray

LHP                 Scott Kazmir

RHP                 Jesse Hahn

LHP                 Drew Pomeranz

RHP                 Jarrod Parker

CLOSER          Sean Doolittle

The Oakland A’s have had an interesting offseason.  Billy Beane was extremely active due to the financial constraints placed upon him by his team.  The A’s pinned their hopes to the move to San Jose, but the San Francisco Giants turned to MLB to shut that down.  For that reason the A’s are stuck in an old park dealing with an apathetic fan base in an area that is far more interested in the Giants.  More immediately, that means the A’s are forced to cut ties with players sooner than other teams for economic reasons, not baseball ones.

There have been numerous changes for Oakland again this offseason.  Gone is a litany of quality players including Josh Donaldson, Jon Lester, and Jeff Samardzjia.

In return the A’s got quality prospects and a few major leaguers including Ben Zobrist, Jesse Hahn and Brett Lawrie.  Add to that free agent Billy Butler and the Athletics feature a team that is still talented, but doesn’t cost as much to put on the field.

The hope is that this team can still hit enough to support a talented young pitching staff.  While many think this will be a down year and stretch of mediocrity for Oakland, I’m not so sure.  I think Beane got enough quality major league players back and has enough pitching talent to stay interesting in the division at the very least.

Offense/Defense:

Over the past few years, the A’s have featured a very strong offense to go with some talented pitching.   Last year the offense slipped bit and it cost them.  The A’s hit 244 as a team, tied for second to last in the league.  Interestingly they were third in runs scored, but sat in the bottom half of hits, HR and SB, which means they may have been a bit lucky.  Beane knew he couldn’t afford to hang on to all the pieces of last year’s team and also felt that that team couldn’t win the division.  So he made some trades to keep the A’s competitive in the short term and rebuild a bit for the long term.

This year’s offense looks vastly different from the 2014 version.  At third, the A’s traded away their best player, Josh Donaldson and got Brett Lawrie back.  While he’s certainly a downgrade over Donaldson, the A’s hands were tied due to their financial constraints.  But getting a player of Lawrie’s caliber back is not too bad.  Lawrie’s biggest issue has been health, as he’s never played in more than 125 games in a season and was limited to 70 games last year.  In that time, he hit 247 with 12 HR and 38 RBI.  But his AVG has dropped each year he’s played and he didn’t even attempt a stolen base last year.  Lawrie is a fastball hitter who doesn’t handle breaking stuff well.  Additionally he gest upset easily and plays poorly when he’s angry. 

Billy Butler will join the A’s as their primary DH.  He is a line drive hitter with a career 295 batting average.  Butler played in 151 games with the Royals last year, but still hit fewer home runs (9) than any season other than his rookie year.  Playing in Kansas City saps power some, but playing in Oakland saps it even more.  Butler’s numbers are trending down as he gets older, with his AVG and HR totals dropping consistently over the last 3 years.  But I think he’s got something left in the tank.  He won’t hit 300 with 40 doubles and 100 RBI anymore, but I think he can hit 270 again, with perhaps 10 HR and 70 RBI.

Coco Crisp is the spark that gets the offense going.  This year, the A’s are moving him out of center and into left, hoping the move will keep him healthy.  He’s a career 270 hitter with 297 career SB.  But his speed has been a bit sapped by age and his AVG has dropped over recent years.  Last year he hit 246 with only 19 SB.  But he gets on base at a 330+ clip and is a great clubhouse presence.  Also, he’s got some pop with 9 HR last year and 22 in 2013.  I think a full season from him (which is probably only 140 games) can see a return to the 260 territory with a 330+ OBP, 25 SB, 10 HR and 75 R. 

The last major offensive piece in Oakland this season will be Ben Zobrist, who was added via trade from the Rays.  Zobrist is a very talented player who can contribute a little bit in each category offensively and play just about every position on the field.  Last season, he hit 272 with 10 HR, 10 SB, 52 RBI and 83 R.  I think the A’s will ask Zobrist to hit third this year.  I like him for 270, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 70 R and 10 SB.

The rest of the A’s offense is a mixed cast.  Ike Davis will play first and hope to finally be healthy.  After hitting 32 HR in 2012, Davis has only managed 20 in the last two seasons.  He did stay on the field for over 140 games last year, but hit a meager 233 with 11 HR between the Mets and Pirates.  Marcus Semien was brought in to upgrade the defense at short.  His offense is a question.  Right now I don’t expect much as he doesn’t handle off speed stuff well and swings for the fences more than he should.  Josh Reddick is the best player remaining on the offense, but he is streaky.  He hit 264 with 12 HR and 54 RBI last year.  After hitting 32 HR in 2012, Reddick has failed to appear in 120 games in either 2013 or 2014 and spread 24 HR across those two seasons.  If he can stay healthy, think another 240 season with 25 HR.  Stephen Vogt will be the primary catcher.  He was a pleasant find last year hitting 279 with 9 HR over 84 games.  However he has only 149 games of experience under his belt.  He always looks to pull the ball with power, so I suspect the AVG will drop.  But he could contribute 15 HR, which would be a welcome addition on this club.  The center field battle will be between Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry.  Fuld, the lefty, has more experience.  He hit 239 over 113 games for the Twins and A’s last year but saw a major drop in production after arriving in Oakland .  Craig Gentry faired a little better in his 94 games with the A’s last year.  He has great speed, going 20 for 22 on the bases, but not much else.  I expect a timeshare with both players getting about 300 ABs.

The A’s will miss Cespedes, Moss and Donaldson, their three best hitters last year.  They’ve added Lawrie, Zobrist and Butler, good players but not as good as what they lost.  I think the A’s will see their offense suffer a bit, with perhaps a better AVG, but fewer R and HR. 

The defense should be greatly improved.  Ike Davis, for all his issues, is a good defensive first baseman and an upgrade over Moss.  Ben Zobrist is not as strong as Eric Sogard at second, but plays the position well.  Semien is a big upgrade over Jed Lowrie in terms of range alone.  Brett Lawrie is very good defensively at third and will be a lot better than Donaldson.  Crisp was a bad defensive center fielder last year, but should be good in left with his speed.  Reddick is great in right.  And both Fuld and Gentry are good in center.  Stephen Vogt needs to work a lot on his defense behind the plate. Butler is the primary DH and not good at first, but not as bad as most people believe.  Eric Sogard is still around to back up second, freeing Zobrist to back up just about every other position.  This defense isn’t great, but it is a big improvement over Oakland’s 2014 squad.

Pitching :

The A’s pitching staff kept them relevant last year.  While recent years have seen them survive more on their offense, 2014 saw a return to the norm in Oakland with the pitching carrying the team.  They were second in the league with a 3.22 team ERA, first in team WHIP at 1.14 and they allowed the second fewest hits and walks.  The A’s will try to repeat that success, despite the loss of Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzjia, additions at midseason who played very well down the stretch.

Sonny Gray is the ace.  He went 14-10 over 33 starts last year logging 219 innings and a team leading 183 Ks.  He pitched to a 3.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 232 BAA.  He has great stuff, one of the best curves in the game and a phenomenal feel for what to do on the mound.  Think 15 Wins, 200 IP, 175 Ks and an ERA around 3.

Scott Kazmir returns for another season by the bay in the midst of a career renaissance.  He led the A’s with 15 wins last year to go with a 3.55 ERA.  There was concern that his season with Cleveland in 2013 was a bit of an outlier, but he was even better last year in Oakland.  Playing in the Coliseum helps, but Kazmir has enough experience to know how to pitch with diminished stuff.  There is concern that his second half swoon (4-6 with an ERA over 5) is a sign of things to come.  I think he may struggle some this year, but believe he can pitch at least as well as he did in 2013 with the Indians.  Think double digit wins with an ERA around 4.

Jesse Hahn is a very talented young pitcher who the A’s got back in a trade with the Padres.  In 14 games and 12 starts, Hahn went 7-4, his only year in the majors, with a 3.07 ERA and 70 Ks in 73 IP.  He could stand to avoid the walks a bit, but he is very young and will be getting a lot more experience this year.  Hahn has a great future and will be a building block for Oakland for the next few years.  He’s got a good sinker with some up and coming secondary pitches. 

Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin are coming back from Tommy John surgery and hoping to contribute.

Parker missed all of last year but hopes to be back for Opening Day.  He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but he is able to keep his team in games by limiting runners.  If he comes back strong, the goal is 175 good innings. 

Griffin is further behind schedule and not expected back until around the All Star break.  He is 21-11 over 47 big league starts with a 3.60 career ERA.  He’s got good stuff, but may not be back to full strength until next year.

Until both are ready, expect to see Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Chavez fill the void.  Chavez made 33 appearances and 21 starts for the A’s last year, going 8-8 with a 3.45 ERA.  He allows too many runners but gives the A’s quality, competitive innings. 

Drew Pomeranz has the size and stuff to be a star, but it hasn’t translated yet.  He’s your classic 5 inning pitcher who shuts down a lineup the first time through, but struggles as they see him again.  However I think he is a sleeper candidate this year.

Sean Doolittle, the closer, will anchor the bullpen.  Doolittle, a converted first baseman, has been a reliever at the major league level for the last three years.  Last year, his first year as the primary closer, he notched 22 Saves while pitching to a 2.73 ERA.  His 0.73 WHIP was sparkling and his 169 BAA and 89 Ks in 63 IP show how dominating he was.  Unfortunately, Doolittle is coming back from an offseason shoulder injury and will likely miss the start of the year. 

Tyler Clippard will likely start the season as the closer and then go back to the setup role when Doolittle returns.  Ryan Cook and Eric O’Flaherty make up the rest of the bullpen’s core and hope to keep the A’s in the conversation for best bullpen in the league.

Pitching will carry this team.  It will have to as the offense if fairly diminished from last season. Hahn may be the key, as we know what Gray and Kazmir can do.  If the A’s are going to taste postseason baseball this year, then this pitching staff will have to once again be one of the best in the league.

Prediction:

The A’s are consistently competitive despite their financial situation.  They were a playoff team last year but almost missed the postseason and were sent home after the single elimination wildcard game.  They lost their three best offensive players and their two best starters.  They have enough talent to compete, but their offense is not as good as it was last year.  Neither is their starting staff.  Add to that the talent on the Angels and Mariners and I just can’t see this team making the postseason.

I’ll put them down for 85 Wins and a third place finish in the division.  That will have them on the outside looking in of the postseason.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2015 Team Breakdown

Projected Division Finish

1.              Seattle Mariners

2.              Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

3.              Oakland Athletics

4.              Texas Rangers

5.              Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2014 Finish:     98-64 (First Place)

Projected Batting Order

RF        Kole Calhoun

SS        Erik Aybar

CF        Mike Trout

1B       Albert Pujols

LF        Josh Hamilton

3B       David Freese

DH       Matt Joyce

2B       Josh Rutledge

C          Chris Ianetta

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

RHP                 Jered Weaver

RHP                 Garrett Richards

LHP                 C.J. Wilson

RHP                 Matt Shoemaker

LHP                 Hector Santiago

CLOSER          Huston Street

The Angels had the best record in the major leagues last year.  But you wouldn’t know it based on what has happened since the end of the regular season.  The Angels were swept by the red hot Royals and were then summarily overlooked by everyone in the offseason.  The talk about the Angels has focused on their closing window, the issues with Josh Hamilton and questions about Albert Pujols. The Angels look like a forgotten division winner from a year ago.  They hope to remind everyone they are still around and come back with a vengeance when the season starts.

Offense/Defense:

The offense looks to be in pretty good shape.  While they lost the extremely talented and heavily underrated Howie Kendrick, they were able to add talent in the forms of Matt Joyce and Josh Rutledge.  And while Rutledge is a downgrade from Kendrick at second, Joyce is a major upgrade at DH.

The Angels had a fairly prolific offense last season, leading the league in runs while sitting second in the hits column and third in team AVG.  They didn’t feature a ton of power or speed overall, but have guys who can contribute in multiple categories and hit for a plus AVG. 

The best player in baseball, Mike Trout, leads this offense.  Trout has earned his honorific by being a great all around player: with the bat, the glove and on the base paths. He does it all, hitting 287 last year while leading the team with 36 HR and 111 RBI, both career highs.  His stolen base totals have declined three straight years (49, 33, 16) but part of that is due to his spot in the lineup changing and his putting more balls over the fence.  He will anchor this lineup, likely hitting third, and probably produce another season of 280+ with 25+ HR, 100 RBI and maybe 10 SB, depending on where the Angels bat him in the order.  He will excel, no matter what LA needs him to do.

Albert Pujols will likely back him up in the order.  He hit 272 last year with 28 HR and 105 RBI.  The cleanup hole is a better place for him to hit now as he can focus on driving in runs.  He drove in over 100 runs for the 12^th time in his 14 year career.  28 homers is nothing to sneeze at in this current offensive climate.  And his AVG won’t hurt you.  I will expect him to have another productive season of 25+ HRs and around 100 RBI with an AVG north of 260, which is great for anyone but looks subpar for a player who was once the best offensive player in baseball.

Josh Hamilton was supposed to be the number 5 man protecting both Trout and Pujols, but he’s had a tough offseason.  That follows a tough regular season where he only played in 89 games due to injury.  He was hot before he went got hurt, but never made it back to that level when he returned.  He is a consistent injury risk, due to his early struggles with drugs and alcohol.  He had shoulder surgery in early February before suffering a drug relapse, which may require time in rehab and an additional suspension.  He was supposed to be the third musketeer of this offense, but we have no idea when he will be back with the Angels and what he will bring when he comes back.  It is a major question for LA, and one that will likely have a major impact on their season.

Luckily the Angels signed Matt Joyce in the offseason to be their primary DH and provide some depth in the outfield.  Joyce is not a star, but he will provide some good innings both in left and with the bat for the Halos.  He hit 254 with 9 HR last year for the Rays in one of his worst offensive seasons.  The hope is that in a better lineup, he will see more pitches to hit and return to his previous levels of power, when he routinely slugged 15+ HRs, which was as recent as 2013 (18 HR).  He’s career 250 hitter who can provide good at bats, a couple stolen bases and some RBI production. 

Erik Aybar was a pleasant surprise last year, and with the injuries to Hamilton, the Angels would like to see him continue to play like he did in 2014.  Aybar hit 278 while swiping 16 bags and continuing to play great defense.  He’s always been a bit underappreciated, but has great speed and has always been an above average hitter. He is a good fit for the number 2 hole, with his speed and ability to put the ball in play.  And seeing more fastballs, he has the chance to be a double-digit home run man.  But as important as Aybar has been to this team in the past, he is even more important this year with the loss of Hamilton.  I think we know his AVG will be around 275.  But if the Angels are going to be successful, then we need to see 8-10 HRs, 70+ RBI/R and another 15+ SB season.

The rest of the Angels offense is a varied group.  Kole Calhoun was given the leadoff role last year and ran with it.  I think Trout would have been a better option (with Pujols hitting third, Kendrick second and Hamilton cleanup) but Calhoun’s success allowed Trout to hit lower in the batting order.  Calhoun hit 272, slugged 17 HR and scored 90 runs, doing exactly what the Angels wanted him to do.  He doesn’t have the speed that most teams want in their leadoff hitter, but he runs the bases well, even though he’s not a base stealer.  More important was his 325 OBP and ability to hit with runners in scoring position.  David Freese will likely hit 6^th and man the hot corner.  He has never lived up to his potential, outside of the Cardinals’ great world series run a few years ago.  He hit 260 last year with 10 HR.  But his defense is only average, he has no speed and doesn’t hit for incredible power.  That’s not what you are looking from a corner infielder.  University of Alabama graduate Josh Rutledge, who the Angels picked up in a trade with the Rockies, has the inside track to replace Howie Kendrick at second.  He is a significant downgrade from Kendrick across the board.  He’s still young so he could improve, as he’s never played more than 105 games in a season.  Catcher Chris Ianetta provides good at bats and defense.  Pitchers love throwing to him and Mike Scioscia, a former catcher, expects a lot from his backstops defensively.  He’s got double digit pop at the plate and does a good job working walks.  Colin Cowgill is the fourth outfielder due to see a lot of work this year.  They wanted a quality fourth outfielder to take over for Josh Hamilton in late innings.  But now, Cowgill will man left field more than expected.  He hit 250 last year in 260 ABs.   He also hit a career high 5 HRs, got on base at a 330 clip and went 4 for 4 on the bases.  Drew Butera is a solid backup, known more for defense behind the plate than his work with the bat and Johnny Giovatella offers some experience at second and a passable glove. 

This offense doesn’t excel at anything, but they have a lot of players who are above average, a few who are good and one who is great.  The key is everyone can provide quality at bats, a few have speed and more than a few have some power.  I think this is the best overall team in the division and the offense is a major part of it. 

The defense isn’t too shabby either.  Mike Scioscia has made Chris Ianetta a very good defender behind the plate.  Albert Pujols is good at first and Erik Aybar is very good at short.  They will miss Howie Kendrick’s defense at second, but Rutledge is a young, energetic defender who should only get better and isn’t bad now.  Freese is average at third and there aren’t a lot of options currently behind him on the roster.  In the outfield, Trout is a Gold Glove caliber center fielder, Calhoun is above average in right and Joyce is okay in left.  Hamilton is actually not a bad defensive left fielder; his health just precludes him from logging as many innings in the field.  Cowgill can back up all three outfield spots and is an excellent left fielder, which is where he will get most of his playing time.  Johnny Giovatella is good at second and Butera is even better backing up the catcher’s spot.

Pitching:

The pitching staff is not as strong as the offense.  Their 2014 team ERA of 3.58 was pretty average.  They gave up the third most walks in the league, but made up for it by allowing only the fourth most hits.  Looking at it like that, they have pitchers with good stuff, but that are perhaps a little sloppy.  The good news is that you can fix that, but it’s not easy.  And if they are going to win this division again, they need their pitching staff to be at least as good and probably a little better than they were in 2014.

Jered Weaver is still their number one on paper, though he is not the pitcher he once was.  His velocity has fallen off a cliff, as he’s gotten older.  But he was such a good pitcher before that he knows how to survive with lesser stuff.  He led the Angels with 18 wins and 169 Ks last year, despite having a fastball that barely touches 90 MPH.  Weaver pitched to a 3.59 ERA while logging 213 innings and a 239 BAA.  He will likely give them another 200+ innings of quality, sub 4 ERA baseball, avoiding walks and keeping the Angels in the game. 

Their true ace is Garrett Richards.  He has always had good stuff, but finally found his way last year.  He led the league in average MPH on his fastball (96) and went 13-4 in 26 starts with a 2.61 ERA.  His 1.04 WHIP and 201 BAA show how dominating he was.  He tore a knee tendon covering first in a game in August and likely won’t be back until May.  But when he comes back, the Angels will need him to be their ace.  He’s got the stuff, but not necessarily the track record. 

The biggest question on the starting staff is C.J. Wilson.  He signed a huge contract with the Angels a few years ago but saw the wheels come off last season.  His ERA ballooned to 4.51, his WHIP grew to 1.45 and his 258 BAA was not at all good.  He led the AL in walks and ended his season on a low note failing to get out of the first inning against the Royals.  He’s got good stuff, but has to get out of his head and deliver for the Angels this year, especially with Weaver getting older and using smoke and mirrors to get by and Richards possibly dealing with injury to start the year.

Matt Shoemaker was another revelation for the Angels last year, though he was greatly overshadowed by his teammate Garrett Richards.  Shoemaker’s emergence was definitely a key to the Angels winning the division as he went 16-4 in 20 starts with a 3.04 ERA.  Those numbers are great, and supported by his 1.07 WHIP.  He doesn’t walk a lot of guys and won’t beat himself.  However it was his first full season in the bigs and a number of teams only saw him pitch once.  This year he will have to improve, as his stuff is only average (he gets by with great control and an above average splitter as a strikeout pitch) and now teams will have a book on how to face him.

Hector Santiago will likely be the 5^th starter, or at least is the man to beat.  He is a quality pitcher who needs to avoid the walk and not pitch too much to contact.  Andrew Heaney will try to push him for the spot, but if he succeeds, then Santiago is a good long man in the bullpen and possible spot starter. The left-handed Heaney has a bright future and good stuff, but perhaps needs a little more seasoning, especially moving from a more pitcher friendly league and stadium.

Closer Huston Street will anchor the bullpen for the Halos in 2014.  He made 61 appearances between the Padres and Angels last year with 41 Saves and a 1.37 ERA.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, but his BAA and WHIP are exquisite.  He’s got 275 career Saves and a 2.82 ERA.  I think he will be fine as the Angels closer.

Joe Smith is the top setup man.  He had a 1.81 ERA over 76 appearances last year and even spent some time in the closer’s role before the Angels added Street.  His underhand delivery and sinking fastball was extremely effective as he notched 15 Saves, 18 Holds and held hitters to a 172 BAA while pitching to a 0.80 WHIP, both of which are phenomenal.  The rest of the bullpen is made up of young arms that aren’t overly exciting and need to rein in their command.

Prediction:

I truly think the Angels are the best team in this division.  I’ve thought that before and picked them to win the division in 2012 and 2013.  They didn’t.  So I finally picked someone else to win the division in 2014….and they finally get it together and win it.  This team seems to hate me.  I was all set to pick them to win the division this year…but I stopped short.  Hamilton is a question mark who will assuredly miss some time.  Without him, Trout and Pujols don’t have protection.  Add to that the loss of Kendrick, and I think this year’s offense won’t be as strong as the 2014 edition.  Richards will miss the beginning of the year, Wilson is a question and Shoemaker has to see how he does now that opposing hitters will have film on him.  Add to that some young, question marks in the bullpen, and this team may not be quite as good as they were last year.  On the flip side, the rest of the division (especially the Mariners) has definitely gotten better.  That’s enough improvement in the division that I can’t see them winning 98 games anymore.

I’ll pick them to finish second, take home a wildcard and finish with around 90 Wins.

Seattle Mariners 2015 Team Breakdown

AL West Projected Division Finish

1.              Seattle Mariners

2.              Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

3.              Texas Rangers

4.              Oakland Athletics

5.              Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners 

2014 Finish:              87-75 (Third Place)

Projected Batting Order

CF        Austin Jackson

3B       Kyle Seager

2B       Robinson Cano

DH       Nelson Cruz

1B       Logan Morrison

LF        Dustin Ackley

RF        Seth Smith

C          Mike Zunino

SS        Brad Miller

Projected Starting Rotation/Closer

RHP                 Felix Hernandez

RHP                 Hishashi Iwakuma

RHP                 Taijuan Walker

LHP                 James Paxton

LHP                 J.A. Happ

CLOSER          Fernando Rodney

Last year’s Mariners team came a long way in terms of improvement gaining 16 games in the win column from 2013 and finishing with their first winning record since 2009.  A strong pitching staff with a weak offense for years, the current Mariner’s front office got to work on improving the bats last offseason with the signing of Robinson Cano.  His addition turned them into an 87-win team and had them finish 1 game outside of the playoffs.  However there was some frustration by fans the fans in the Pacific Northwest that the Mariners didn’t do more.  Nelson Cruz was sitting there for the taking at a cheap price coming off his PED suspension, but the Mariners refused to spend the money to get him.  He then went to Baltimore and led the majors in homers.  This year, they swallowed their pride and signed Cruz, who all of a sudden cost much more after his career year with Baltimore.  Added to Cano, budding star Kyle Seager and a strong pitching staff, the Mariners hope they can make up that one game and then some to get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Offense/Defense:

They could still stand to see some improvement on the offensive side of the ball.  The team batted 244, which was tied for second worst in the league.  They finished last in OBP, second to last in hits and in the bottom half of the league in HR, RBI and R. 

Robinson Cano was their offensive leader hitting a team best 314 with 14 HR and 82 RBI.  He is the premier second baseman in the game, but had no protection last year.  He saw his HR totals drop precipitously, but that can be tied to moving from a stadium with little league dimensions (the New Yankee stadium) to one of the toughest hitter’s parks in the league.  He still was great, but needed some protection and that was priority number one in the offseason.

That protection comes in the form of Nelson Cruz, who led the majors with 40 HR and was third with 108 RBI.  He added 87 R and a strong 271 AVG to that line to be a very good all-around offensive player.  His defense has fallen off a cliff and after going 4 for 9 on the bases he is done trying to steal.  But he was signed to protect Cano and launch homers deep into the Seattle night, as only deep HR have a chance to leave the ballpark.  I think he will succeed in his new digs, though 40 HR would be a stretch.  Think 30-35 with a 260+ AVG.  His bigger mark will be on Robinson Cano, who should now see better pitches to hit and perhaps pull that average up to 320 with 20+ HR and 90-100 RBI.

The third leg of Seattle’s offense is newly extended third baseman Kyle Seager.  Seager led the team with 25 HR and 96 RBI.  But while his HR totals make him seem like a one-dimensional hitter, his AVG has climbed three straight seasons to a career high 268 last year.  He will likely hit second, hoping to see fastballs with the leadoff guy on base in front of him.  If that doesn’t work, they can drop him to fifth, but they hope he can succeed hitting second, as he will get more at bats and create a murder’s row for opposing pitchers in the second through fourth part of the order (Seager, Cano, Cruz).  I like his power and think he will continue to grow as a hitter.  Think another 25+ HR year with a drop in RBI but bump in R paired with a 250-270 AVG.

The last potential problem area with this team is the leadoff spot.  The Mariners added Austin Jackson at the deadline for a little push to get into the playoffs, but he was terrible upon arriving in Seattle.  He only hit 229 with 0 HR in 54 games.  He did swipe 11 bags, 2 more than he took in over twice as many games in Detroit.  Overall he hit 256 last year, which is pretty far off from his normal 275-300 range.  He’s not a prototypical leadoff hitter and actually batted fifth in Detroit last year after hitting 28 HRs across 2012 and 2013.  But his power diminished greatly in 2014, which is why Seattle wants him to leadoff.  He has to learn to take a few walks and is likely a 270 hitter, not the 300 man we saw early on in his career.  If he stops swinging for the fences, we may see him start to hit line drives, get on base and score some runs.  They are hoping to see him hit around 280 with 25-30 SB and 80+ R.  I think that’s a little high of an estimate, but could see 265, 20 SB and 70 R.  With the Mariners’ pitching staff that should be enough.

The rest of the offense is nothing special.  Logan Morrision will play first and likely bat fifth (268, 11 HR).  He showed some pop in 2011 with 23 HR in 123 games, but not as much since then.  He may not stay fifth in the lineup if Dustin Ackley (14 HR) and Seth Smith (12 HR) continue to hit for power.  Mike Zunino is a limited hitter (199) but hit 22 HR in 131 games.  Brad Miller and Chris Taylor are both defensive players fighting for the starting spot at short.  Justin Ruggiano may log some playing time in the outfield after hitting 281 in 81 games last year and Rickie Weeks hopes to prove himself after the Mariners took a flier on him after another injury shortened season in Milwaukee.  When healthy, he is a force, but he will be in an extreme pitcher’s park learning a new defensive position in left.  He’s still got some power and a little speed, but I think playing part time will hurt him as much as the position change and Safeco dimensions.  Jesus Montero is still around, but a PED suspension, subpar performances and clubhouse issues have derailed his career, there is little expected from this once highly touted prospect.  If this offense is going to play, it will need to get a lot out of the top 4 spots in the lineup.

On the diamond, the Mariners are hit and miss.  The infield looks to be in good shape with Cano and Seager playing Gold Glove caliber defense at second and third and both shortstop options being average or better with the glove.  Chris Taylor is the better defender at short, but Brad Miller’s bat will get him more playing time and his defense is fine.  Morrison isn’t great at first, but won’t kill you either.  The problem comes in the outfield.  Austin Jackson was a shockingly bad defender last year and Dustin Ackley is a natural second baseman that is trying to learn to play left field.  Seth Smith is fine in right, but when two thirds of your outfield is a question mark, you don’t like what you see.  The bench doesn’t provide any defensive relief either with Neleson Cruz strictly a DH at this point and Rickie Weeks, another natural second baseman, trying to learn left.  Justin Ruggiano is fine in either corner, but that leaves you with more bad options (4) than good (2).  The pitchers’ goals will be to keep the ball on the ground in Seattle for more than the traditional reasons.

Pitching:

For years, the only thing that kept this team viable was their electric pitching.  The Mariners led the league with a 3.17 team ERA last year.  They also finished tops in the league in hits allowed, second in WHIP and in the top half of the league in Ks and walks allowed.

Felix Hernandez is the ace and arguably the best right-handed starter in the game.  He’s on the short list for best pitchers in the game.  He was great again last season, winning his team’s triple crown by leading them with 15 Wins, a 2.14 ERA and 248 Ks in 236 IP.  His 0.92 WHIP and 200 BAA only underscore his brilliance.  Pitching in Safeco helps, but he’s great anywhere he goes.  Expect another season of 15 wins, sub 3 ERA and 200+ IP and Ks.

Hisashi Iwakuma is their number 2 man.  He continued his success in 2014 with a 15-9 record and a 3.52 ERA.  He’s not as dominating with a 244 BAA and only 154 Ks in 179 IP.  But in Safeco, he is great and competitive outside of Seattle. 

Taijuan Walker was very strong in 5 starts and 3 relief appearances in 2014.  He struck out 34 in 38 innings, limiting hitters to a 223 BAA and turning in a 2.61 ERA.  He needs to cut down on the walks, but his stuff is electric.  He will be in the starting rotation from opening day this year and may end up being one of their better pitchers. 

James Paxton and J.A. Happ will make up the rest of the starting rotation.  Paxton was solid in 13 starts going 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA.  The ERA is great and partly a result of pitching in Safeco.  But he’s got good stuff and a good idea of how to pitch.  His 1.20 WHIP and 223 BAA were both better than average.  If he stays in command of his pitches (not a guarantee) he will use that sinker to get outs.  Happ is more of a mystery.  He is a flyball pitcher who likes to work up in the zone.  It’s hurt him in Philly and Toronto.  Last year he improved some going 11-11 with a 4.22 ERA.  A lot of that had to do with his fastball velocity returning to the 92-95 MPH range.  His flyball tendencies will play better in Seattle.

Closer Fernando Rodney, who has had a career renaissance over the last few years, anchors the bullpen.  The key to his resurgence has been his ability to throw his changeup and not rely strictly on his sinking fastball.  He has continued to excel over the last three years going 133 for 146 in Save opportunities.  He has to learn to avoid giving up free bases via the walk, but the next pitching coach that can help him in that area of his game will be the first.  There is no reason not to believe he won’t turn in another great season in Seattle in 2015.

The support group leading to him is equally impressive.  Tom Wilhemsen has closing experience, but has been far better as a set up man.  His 2.27 ERA and 171 BAA show that he is a shutdown reliever who gets the job done.  Danny Farquhar is another great setup option that had more Ks than IP last year and provides some insurance for Rodney as someone who can Save a few games in the season if necessary.  Beyond those three, Dominic Leone and Yoervis Medina are good K guys with live arms and Charlie Furbush is a converted starter, who has fared much better in the bullpen with 51 Ks in 42 IP last year.  It may not be the best bullpen in baseball, but it’s a very good one supported by a ballpark that really helps the men on the mound.

Prediction:

I went back and forth on this one for a while.  I like the Mariners this year.  But I think the Angels are probably a better team.  Additionally, when September rolled around last year and Mariners had a chance to make the playoffs, they went 4-11 and knocked themselves out of contention.  There is a lot of youth on this team and the offense is limited.   

The pitching staff is still great.  Their 8.5 WAR was the best in baseball last year.  The bullpen turned in a MLB best 3.5 WAR as well.  This team will go as far as their pitching staff will take them.

The offense I love less, but they came close to the playoffs last year and got better this offseason.  This team doesn’t need a great deal of runs to win games they just need some.  I have no doubt Cano will be great, and have more of an impact with Cruz hitting behind him.  Kyle Seager will likely have another strong year.  I think the key for Seattle’s offense is Austin Jackson.  If he can get on base for the big boppers behind him, then they will have a chance.  But he has to embrace being a leadoff guy and stop trying to hit homers.  It worked in Detroit.  It won’t work in Seattle.

I’ll put the Mariners down for 92 wins and first place in the AL West, just edging out the Angels.

2014 Hall of Fame Talk

Well we just had one of the most exciting days of the baseball offseason.  The new class of baseball Hall of Fame has been announced.  It was the biggest class since 1955 with 4 people going into Cooperstown.  I’ll take a look at the guys that got in the actual Hall of Fame and also discuss the guys who didn’t get in, the BBA Hall of Fame ballot and the guys who were elected into that Hall of Fame and my thoughts on the voting process and the guys on the cusp of baseball immortality.

First thing’s first, let’s take a look at the four guys who got into the Hall the other day, all of whom are great choices and should have gone in on their first ballots (3 of which did).

Randy Johnson:        The Big Unit was selected with 97.3% of the vote.  There was a thought that he may threaten Tom Seaver for highest percentage of ballots for all time, but he fell short, like Greg Maddux last year.  The fact that he didn’t get 100% is ridiculous, but I don’t sweat the small stuff.  He got in.  And there is no question about it….a 300 game winner, second most strikeouts all time with 4,875 (Nolan Ryan is first with over 5,000), most Ks by a lefty, highest career K/9 innings of any pitcher ever, oldest pitcher to throw a complete game, 5 Cy Young’s, 1 World Series MVP (shared with Curt Schilling), another no hitter, led the league 4 times and went to 10 All Star games.  May have overtaken Warren Spahn for the title of best lefty of all time….at the very least is in the top 2. 

Pedro Martinez:       Pedro was another obvious choice getting over 91% of the vote.  219 wins, 3 Cy Young’s and 7 top 5 finishes in the Cy Young race, 2.93 ERA and over 3,000 Ks, led the league in strikeouts 3 times, led the league in wins once, led the league in ERA 5 times, one of the most dominant right handers of all time despite his comparatively diminutive size (for a pitcher) and dominated hitters during the heart of the steroid era.  Had one of the best seasons of all time during 2000, when he went 18-6 with a MLB best 1.74 ERA and 284 Ks.  No question hall of famer.

John Smoltz:              Smoltzie got in with 82.9% of the vote.  He was a unique player who dominated as a starter and a reliever.  But then he returned to starting and was great again.  Frankly has no peer to compare his career with, as Eckersley didn’t return to starting. He was the first pitcher to make the HoF after Tommy John surgery.  And he happens to be my favorite player of all time.  That doesn’t help his case; it’s just an interesting factoid.  Smoltz was famously part of the best pitching trio of all time (on one team at one time) with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.  Part of the Braves team that won 14 straight division titles and one World Series.  Won the 1996 Cy Young Award in a year where he led the league with 24 wins, a .750 win percentage and 276 Ks.  Had 3 top 5 Cy Young finishes and over 3,000 Ks.  Only pitcher with 200+ wins (213) and 150+ Saves (154).  8-time All Star, led the league in Saves once and won 1 Silver Slugger.  I think he’s another first ballot HoFer, though not the slam-dunk the first two were.

Craig Biggio:                        Unlike the top 3 guys on this list, Biggio didn’t get in on his first ballot.  This was his third time on the ballot after missing the Hall by 2 votes last year.  I think that’s ridiculous because I have him as a slam dunk first ballot entry guy.  But playing in Houston on some bad teams hurt his case.  Biggio was a guy who did nothing exceptionally, but a lot of stuff well.  He was also a gamer playing in 140 or more games in 16 of his 20 seasons and leading the league in games 3 times (all three times playing in 162 games).  An exceptional leadoff hitter, he led the league in plate appearances 5 times, runs twice, doubles 3 times and stolen bases once.  He won 5 Silver Sluggers and 4 Gold Gloves.  He is 5^th all time in doubles, 21^st in hits, 33^rd in total bases, 15^th in runs and 11^th in plate appearances.  He slugged 291 HR and stole 414 bases.  He is one of three HoFers whose primary position was second base.  He finished in the top five of the MVP twice.  Likely to have more awards had he played in a larger market, but he is an all-time great who amassed 3,000 hits and finished with a career 281 batting average.  He should have been in on the first ballot, but at least he’s in now.

So that’s who got in.  Mike Piazza was the first guy left off the list at 69.9%.  He was followed by Jeff Bagwell at 55.7%, Tim Raines at 55% and Curt Schilling at 39.2%.  The good news for those guys is that with 4 guys getting in this year and only one new guy due up next year who is definitely a slam dunk first ballot man (Ken Griffey Jr.) there will be some extra votes to go around.

Mike Piazza will probably get in next year and I think that’s a good call.  He is the greatest offensive catcher of all time.  His only peer in Johnny Bench, and his numbers are better than Bench’s.  I’m not one of those people who are up in arms about him not making it on the first ballot, because I understand that his defense was abysmal.  I would have put him in on the first ballot, but I get why others didn’t.  He will likely get in next year.

Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines both got more votes this year than last.  There is upward momentum for both.  I think both are great players who deserve to be HoFers.  Raines never got to 3,000 hits and was an okay defensive left fielder.  But he is one of the all time great base stealers with a better batting average than Ricky Henderson.  If he lasted as long as Ricky, he could have compiled 3,000 hits.  Compare their stats sometime, you’ll be surprised. 

Bagwell is a guy who was never caught using PEDs or even suspected.  He just played during the era.  And that has unfairly hurt him (and Piazza as well).  That is an indictment of the era and shows why people need to tackle this question in a better way.  There are innocent players who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame who are being overlooked.  (More on what needs to change coming up).  But Bagwell is a rare player with over 400 HRs and over 200 SB to go with all the Gold Gloves at first.  Had a great batting average and a ton of hits.  I think he’ll get in eventually, as he should.

The bigger question is Curt Schilling.  He brings part of that on himself by being so outspoken about everything.  Also, other players dislike him.  Fair or not, that’s hurting him and that’s something that he did to himself.  I don’t really like him.  But I think he’s a Hall of Famer.  Smoltz went in on the first ballot.  Compare their numbers and you will see that Schilling’s are just as good and in many cases better, save the relief numbers.   But the JAWS HoF Method (which is essentially WAR) points out that Schilling mathematically was better than Smoltz, which helps cancel out Smoltz’s great relief numbers.  I put him in, but he may need time.  Nobody likes him and that’s his own fault.  But that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the Hall.  I do think he will get in, but it may take time.

So those are the guys on the bubble.  Other notable guys were Bonds and Clemens who saw their vote totals rise slightly, McGwire and Sosa who saw theirs drop and Don Mattingly, who only got 9 % on his final ballot.  We’ll talk about all that too.

Quickly, let’s talk about the BBA ballot.  As a voting member, I voted for 8 guys, 7 of which got in the BBA Hall of Fame.  This year, the BBA tried a binary ballot, which was far simpler.  You could vote for as many guys as you wanted and those with 75% or more of the vote got in.  Like the actual HoF, Randy Johson led the voting (with 100% btw) and Martinez followed at 95%.  Biggio and Smoltz got in as well.  Then, the BBA added 3 more players:  Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza and Tim Raines, all of who were on the actual Hall bubble.  Edgar Martinez (71%) and Curt Schilling (68%...the other guy I voted for) were on the BBA bubble.

Beyond those guys were:

Mike Mussina 67%
Barry Bonds 65%
Roger Clemens 63%
Alan Trammell 53%
Jeff Kent 44%
Gary Sheffield 38%
Larry Walker 37%
Fred McGriff 33%
Mark McGwire 33%
Don Mattingly 31%
Lee Smith 31%
Sammy Sosa 23%
Carlos Delgado 19%
Nomar Garciaparra 13%
Cliff Floyd 4%
Brian Giles 4%
Rich Aurilia 3%
Darin Erstad 3%
Troy Percival 3%
Aaron Boone 1%
Jason Schmidt 1%
Jermaine Dye 0%
Tom Gordon 0%
Eddie Guardado 0%

You can read the BBA article here, but suffice it to say that outside of Curt Schilling I agreed with everyone who got in and don’t think they missed out on anyone.  And while I could be convinced that Mussina and maybe Trammell should be in (plus I’m starting to change my tune on a couple PED users) I am pleased with what the BBA did this year.  Getting some worthy names off the ballot will help those other players next year.

So that brings us to the state of the Hall of Fame.  There has been grumbling in the last few years about the way things are done.  I think changes should be made, but the most important of which involves publicizing the ballot.  I think people should have to defend their votes.  There has been talk about adding non-writers to the list of those who can vote because it seems quite dumb that many career baseball guys including people who work for baseball or are broadcasters cannot vote.  There are arguments to be made for and against that and I’ll leave that to others.  But if I could make one change to the way things are done, it would be publicizing the ballot.  Make people discuss their votes, how they vote and get issues out into the world for public discourse.  That always makes things better.

Lots of people abstained from voting this year to protest.  Some protested for different reasons than others, but many great baseball minds like Buster Olney and Tim Brown didn’t vote.  That’s a problem.  Whether they are actively against the way the system works (Olney) or just beat down and don’t want to be a part of it anymore (Brown), losing two intelligent minds on the discussion is unfortunate.  Keith Olbermann thinks we should close the baseball Hall of Fame and start all over voting in people again and giving people who should be in another set of chances.  I don’t necessarily agree with that, but he makes interesting points. 

The BBWAA doesn’t want to give up control of this process.  I think that’s fair.  But I don’t think that once you get a HoF vote, you should get to keep it for life.  It should be re-issued each year.  There are people who haven’t covered the sport in a while who get to vote.  Instead of 550 writers, we should instead have only about 300 of those writers.  Then we fill in the rest with broadcasters or former baseball people or other hall of famers.  Cap the number at 500.  I don’t know, but change should come because clearly the current system is far too conservative.  I don’t mean more people should always get in (though right now I think there are some good names on the ballot), I’m saying more consideration should be given to players who are now falling off the ballot too soon.  Players like Carlos Delgado and Kenny Lofton are worthy of consideration and discussion.  And while I’m sure most people agree that they AREN’T Hall of Famers, the fact that they only made one ballot shows that good players aren’t even being truly considered because the voters have to save their votes and debates for the truly great.  Some would say that’s how it’s supposed to work, but I think it’s an indictment on the system, and someone staying on the ballot a while because people are discussing his career is a good thing.  Discussion is good.  This current system doesn’t allow for as much.

The one other major change I’d make is to do away with ballot limits.  Right now, you only get 10 hall of fame votes.  But if there are more than 10 people worthy, you are out of luck.  Additionally, that encourages the writers to play games with the ballot.  Randy Johnson fell short of 100%.  Part of the reason for that is because some writers knew he would get in, so they wanted to save their votes for someone who may fall short like Alan Trammell or Don Mattingly.  If you switch to a binary ballot where you write “YES” or “NO” next to each name, people don’t have to make those decisions and we may finally get our first unanimous selection.

But the biggest issue still facing the hall is steroids.  Cooperstown has still kept their doors shut to the PED users of the Steroid Era.  Some agree with that stance.  Some don’t.  Some think the process is so messed up and the criterion so jumbled that the voters cannot be expected to adequately make good decisions on their ballot since there is no set criterion for who should get in.  I think that’s a fair point.  Buster Olney abstained from voting for that reason, pointing out that the all time hits leader (Pete Rose) and all time home runs leader (Barry Bonds) aren’t considered Hall of Famers due to their off field discretions but guys with lesser numbers who seemed to live the kind of upstanding lives that voters find important are also being kept out (Dale Murphy/Don Mattingly). 

It’s a good point.  If you think there are moral imperatives to be considered when it comes to voting for the Hall, then you may need to relax your statistical expectations.  Murphy and Mattingly are great examples of great players who didn’t play long enough to get in.  Why didn’t they play long enough?  Injuries and age.  What combats those obstacles?  Steroids and amphetamines (more on that later).  So the guys who did it right off the field, clearly “suffered” for it on the field (in terms of career numbers) and are being kept out of the Hall.

Guys who were able to make these great strides and reach those great numbers, often did it in ways that some disagree with.  Those guys are also being kept out of the Hall.  As is one player who did it right on the field and didn’t use PEDs, but had behavioral issues keep him outside of Cooperstown (Pete Rose).  There seems to be no set criterion and that can’t help voters make up their minds.  The question is about the “integrity, sportsmanship and character” part of the ballot.  Some take that way too seriously, despite the fact that some terrible people who displayed none of those qualities (Ty Cobb) reside in the Hall.

I wrote about this last year and most of my thoughts are the same.  At the end of the day, you can’t necessarily blame voters for having so many different reactions to the same players, when there is no set collection of what people agree on to be Hall of Fame criteria.  So part of this solution lies in the hands of the BBWAA.  If they update and modernize their ballot and settle on whether off field issues should be taken into consideration or not, then some of this gets cleared up.

But we are still left with the PED question.  What is a PED?  It’s a performance-enhancing drug.  It’s something you take to make you play better on the field.  The most common one that comes to mind would be a steroid.  But there are others.  The big ones for me are amphetamines.  And that’s because a lot of amphetamine users are in the Hall of Fame.  Such baseball luminaries as Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle have admitted to using amphetamines in their careers.   Without them, they couldn’t have played all the games they appeared in.  If they used them today and they were caught, they would be punished.  Both in the game, and perhaps by those who are stricken with that morality clause when it comes to HoF voting.  If that’s not an eye-opener, I don’t know what is.

Now, I’m not saying that amphetamine usage is the same as steroid usage, though both are PEDs.  I think it’s telling that many people used amphetamines to stay healthy so they could play, similar to the reasons some players used PEDs that way they wouldn’t lose time to injuries (Alex Rodriguez/Andy Pettite).  Perhaps people would have voted differently if they knew about those other guys using amphetamines.  Perhaps not.  But the fact is PED users are in the Hall of Fame already.  Keeping anyone from the era out to protect the integrity of the hall is narrow minded, shortsighted and wrong.  The integrity has already been compromised.  And back in the Deadball Era, non-regulation balls and corked bats were used and people weren’t caught.  Cheaters have tricked people and gotten into the Hall of Fame.  It will happen again.  You can’t control that.  What you can control is putting worthy players in the hall.  And to keep a guy like Piazza or Bagwell out of the Hall because you worry it will hurt the reputation of that institution is counterintuitive.

There are other things to consider.  Mark McGwire was pretty much a one-dimensional player for most of his career.  Additionally, he admitted to using PEDs.  That’s enough to hurt him in my book, and clearly the books of others.  Sammy Sosa isn’t in this conversation without his 600+ HRs.  But we know he took PEDs and corked bats.  He likely won’t get in.   Neither will Rafael Palmiero.  I’m good with all of that.  But you have to differentiate between those players and others.  I’m speaking specifically about Clemens and Bonds.

We don’t know the day that either started taking drugs, but we have a good idea of what year they started.  If neither player kept playing and retired before the PEDs, both would be first ballot Hall of Famers.  Barry Bonds was the best position player of his era.  Roger Clemens was one of the best pitchers of his.  Both belong in the Hall of Fame.  And in fact….they are.  You go to Cooperstown and their names are all over the “all-time “and “single season” leaderboards.  They just don’t appear in the actual Hall.  But they should.  Put them in, use an asterisk if you want and put all the information on their plaques.  Let people read it and make their own decisions.  But these are two of the best players that ever lived.  Both belong to be in the Hall of Fame and there is no question about it for me.

I have just come to that conclusion a few days ago, after my vote.  I will vote for them from here on out.  I will also write in Pete Rose, because he is the only person who is punished for behavior that didn’t affect his play or his playing days.  Purists hate him.  Fans of the time feel betrayed by him.  But if we accept that the Hall of Fame is a gathering of some of the best baseball players of all time with great stats, then its clear Rose belongs.  If other terrible human beings who were racist and violent are in the Hall, then a guy who gambled AFTER his playing days should be in.  Incidentally, he always bet ON the team he managed.  It’s a little thing to some, but I think important to remember.  This isn’t the Black Sox scandal.

So, let’s sum up.  The Hall of Fame voting process is flawed.  Lots of changes are being considered.  I think the most important thing is to make the vote public and to switch to a binary (yes or no) ballot.  I think the personal conduct/sportsmanship/integrity clauses should be removed due to the fact that conduct clearly wasn’t considered in the past when others were voted in.  If it wasn’t important then, it shouldn’t be important now.  PED users deserve special consideration.  But some are already in the Hall of Fame.  You can’t keep others out who deserve to be in, especially if its just a guilt by association situation.  Some PED users belong in the Hall of Fame.  Others don’t.  It’s not black and white and people should take the time to embrace the gray areas and debate them.  That’s how we learn and come to conclusions.  If we accept that it’s something to talk about, then we will come a long way.  Congrats to the 4 new Hall of Famers, all very worthy.  And I look forward to continuing to discuss those worthy of the Hall in the future.