Baseball is well underway
I’m taking a quick look at each division and making some predictions
before the season really takes off. For
my overall thoughts about the league and playoff predictions, check out this post
HERE. Or for my AL West thoughts, check
out THIS POST. Lastly, you can get my
thoughts on the NL West HERE.
But now I’ll move to the NL East. The Mets made it to the World Series last
year and are hoping to improve on that showing.
However, they had the benefit of a hot second half and a weak
division. Can they count on those things
again? The Washington Nationals look
like the best team on paper. But they
looked that way last year and were a major disappointment. Will a new manager be enough of a
change? The Braves and Phillies are
clearly re-building. Neither will be a
factor this year, but the focus on them is about the talent coming down the
pipe. And nobody is sure what to make of
the Marlins. Are they in baseball
purgatory? Enough good players to win
games, but maybe not enough to make the playoffs? Is that enough for this ownership group? At this point in the season, we are seeing
pretty much what we expected with the Mets and Nationals playing well and the
Braves struggling (albeit far worse than was expected). However the surprises are the Phillies
playing well initially and the Marlins playing even better. We’ll see how long this continues this
season. I’ll keep my predictions the
same as they were in the preseason despite the season being underway.
PRESSING QUESTIONS:
Atlanta Braves- Did anyone think they would
be this bad?
Miami Marlins- Could this hot start put
them in wildcard contention?
New York Mets- If they can hit, can they be
beaten?
Philadelphia Phillies- If they play like this now, will this
be a quick re-build?
Washington Nationals-
Was Dusty Baker really the missing
piece for this team?
PREDICTIONS:
Washington Nationals- 98-64
New York Mets- 85-77
Miami Marlins- 81-81
Atlanta Braves- 72-90
Philadelphia Phillies- 68-94
Washington Nationals
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
CF Ben Revere
3B Anthony Rendon
RF Bryce Harper
1B Ryan Zimmerman
2B Daniel Murphy
LF Jayson Werth
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
RHP Max Scherzer
RHP Stephen Strasburg
LHP Gio Gonzalez
RHP Tanner Roark
RHP Joe Ross
CLOSER Jonathan Papelbon
The Nationals were supposed to be great last year. They were supposed to run away with the
division and compete for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That didn’t happen. Despite having what clearly looked to be the
best team on paper, the Nationals struggled early on and fell well short of the
playoffs, instead seeing the Mets run away with the division and make it to the
World Series. So Matt Williams was
ousted as manager and replaced with the player-friendly Dusty Baker. They also upgraded second base with Daniel
Murphy and shifted Danny Espinosa to short to make up for the loss of Ian
Desmond. They didn’t have an answer for
the loss of Jordan Zimmerman to the Tigers, but hope that adding the offensive
playoff hero from their division rival to go with a new manager will be
enough. With their talented roster, they
have to feel like they can win it all this year.
Offensively, they are led by NL MVP Bryce Harper. He was ridiculously good last season hitting
330 with 43 HR, 99 RBI and 118 R. He got
on base at a silly 460 clip and played good defense in right. The only thing he can’t do is steal bases,
which is why many still only consider him the second best player in the game,
behind Mike Trout (who is also a better defender at a harder position…not to
mention he has a longer track record of success, even if it’s not much
longer). But that’s nitpicky. Bryce Harper is likely the best player in the
NL (just ahead of Paul Goldschmidt). He hits for power, average, drives in
runners and gets on base to score runs. I
like him for another 300+ season (the constant pitching around will make him
reach a bit dropping his average from the 330 it was last year) with 40 HR,
100+ RBI and 100+ R. If he can steal
double-digit bases (he was 6 for 10 last year) he could really help the
Nationals out and make teams pay for all the intentional walks. After Harper, there are no stars. But there are plenty of good bats. Ben Revere is a speedster. He’s not a great defender and has a weak arm,
but he covers ground like a gazelle.
He’s a career 291 hitter with a 325 OBP.
It’s not great for a leadoff hitter, but the OBP is sufficient, due to
his high batting averages. He hit over
300 in back to back seasons for the Phillies before hitting 298 in 96 games for
them last year and then 319 in 56 games for the Blue Jays. He stole 31 bags last year and scored 84
runs. He’s never scored 100 runs and
likely won’t unless he can learn to take a walk. But he hits for a high enough average and
steals enough bases to keep his job and should be good for another season
around 300 with 30+ SB and 80+ R. But
an injury (he is injury prone) may eat into those totals. The key for this team
may be the hitters on either side of Harper:
Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman.
Rendon has had issues staying on the field playing only 80 games last
year. He hit 287 with 21 HR, 83 RBI and
17 SB in 2014, his only healthy season.
I don’ know if he can return to that, but if he can hit north of 270
with double digit homers and speed, it would help the team a lot, specifically
Harper with RBI opportunities. The more
important guy is the man hitting behind Harper, Ryan Zimmerman. But he has to prove that he is healthy. He hit 249 in 95 games last year, but with a
strong 16 HR showing. The 2009 Zimmerman
is likely gone forever, but if he can hit 270 with 15+ HR, then likely things will
be looking up for Washington. To this
point, he has struggled being dropped to 5th in the order. But he’s playing better. The big surprise so far is Daniel
Murphy. Murphy has always been a good
player. He’s got some pop and some speed
and hits for a good average with a solid OBP.
Last year was more of the same….281 with 14 HR and 73 RBI. He only went 2 for 4 on the bags, which broke
a streak of 3 straight seasons of at least 10 SB. But that’s just a bonus with him. He can be a 280-290 player with perhaps 12
HR, 10 SB and 70+ RBI. But he’s on pace
for far more than that, hitting behind Harper this year. He is off to his best start, currently
hitting 347 as of this posting. Werth is
not what he used to be, but can pop a few over the fence and play good
defense. Wilson Ramos is in the same
boat. And Michael Taylor and Stephen
Drew are quality backups. This team has
a star in Harper and enough supporting pieces around him to be one of the top
offenses in the National League.
The pitching staff is similar. It consists of one sure star, one possible
star and some strong arms around them.
Max Scherzer is the star. The
former Cy Young winner was at his best in his first season in the NL going
14-12 with career highs 228 IP and 276 Ks.
He pitched to a career low 2.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He had multiple no hitters and has already
tied the major league record with a 20 strikeout performance in this
season. He should threaten for 20 wins,
if his team can support him, which I think they can do. Think an ERA around 3 with 220+ IP and 250+
Ks. He is an ace. After him, the Nats have Stephen Strasburg,
who they just signed to a 7 year $175 million dollar deal, with both third and
fourth year opt outs. Basically it will
make Strasburg rich quickly, but still allow him to test free agency if he
wants to after his third and fourth year.
It’s the best of both worlds, so nice work by Scott Boras. But the Nats are happy too, because they got
Strasburg for a friendly amount of money (not too friendly but they may well
have been outbid) and now he’s theirs for at least 3 more years. Some think Strasburg has been a
disappointment, but I think that’s unfair.
He’s been injured a lot, but when he’s played he’s been pretty good, the
beginning of last year not withstanding.
But he rebounded to end the season with 23 starts and a 3.46 ERA. He still struck out well over a batter per
inning and won 11 games. The year before
that he made a full slate of starts with 14 Wins, a 3.46 ERA and 215 IP (with
242 Ks). If he can stay healthy
(admittedly a decently sized “if”), then I like him for 12-15 Wins and over 200
Ks and IP. I also wouldn’t be surprised
to see that ERA fall closer to 3.25 or even approach 3. The rest of the starting rotation is made up
of Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross.
Gonzalez is the most decorated amongst them, but has not been the
pitcher he initially was in his last year in Oakland and first year in
D.C. But while he may not be an All Star
any more, he is a dependable number 3, with the upside of a low-end number 2. And who knows, he has greatness in his past. At worst he’s an innings eater, but he’s off
to a good start this year. Roark is a
better than average fourth starter who has really taken hold of his starting
opportunity. Both of those guys could
break 200 IP with sub 4 ERAs and double digit wins. The bullpen has some good arms, including an
experienced closer in Jonathan Papelbon and a shut down lefty in former starter
Oliver Perez. This pitching staff as a
whole looks strong and is supported by a strong defensive group in the field.
This team has no clear weaknesses. Sure, Strasburg could get hurt. Or maybe it’s Gio Gonzalez. And sure, teams will pitch around Harper. Revere and Werth aren’t the healthiest. And Daniel Murphy isn’t the best defensive
second baseman. But we are really
nitpicking to find something wrong with this club. They can hit it. They can throw it. They can catch it. They have an MVP candidate in Bryce Harper
and a Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer.
And they have gotten off to a great start. If Ryan Zimmerman starts to hit better to
protect Harper, then I really like this team’s chances to win it all. And, in fact, I like this team to be the home
field winner in the NL, with three really good teams beating up on each other
in the NL Central and the NL West looking somewhat weak. They are my pick to win the World Series, and
the beginning of the season has not dissuaded me from that.
New York Mets
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
RF Curtis
Granderson
3B David Wright
LF Michael Conforto
CF Yoenis Cespedes
1B Lucas Duda
2B Neil Walker
C Travis
d’Arnaud
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
RHP Matt Harvey
RHP Jacob deGrom
RHP Noah Syndergaard
RHP Bartolo Colon
LHP Stephen Matz
CLOSER Jeurys Familia
The Mets are hoping to keep the magic from their postseason
and second half alive. They were able to
re-sign Cespedes, to what is essentially a one year deal, and they still have
that great pitching staff. Losing Daniel
Murphy will hurt, but they hope a full season of Michael Conforto and the
addition of Asdrubal Cabrera will make up for that. They are off to a good start this year, but
are struggling to deal with the injuries to Lucas Duda and David Wright.
This offense is tricky.
They were bad for the first half of last season. Just no way around that. Then they added Yoenis Cespedes, after they
failed to acquire Carlos Gomez. It ended
up working out as Cespedes had his hottest stretch of games ever and pretty
much singlehandedly carried the Mets offense into the playoffs. When they got there, it was mainly Daniel
Murphy providing the offense for the Mets and he’s gone now. However the emergence of Michael Conforto has
helped mitigate that loss. In 56 games
last year, he hit 270 with 9 HR and 26 RBI.
He was red hot to start this year.
While he’s cooled recently, he is a dangerous hitter. Their other star, Cespedes is also having a
great year. He hit 35 HR with 105 RBI
between Detroit and Flushing last year.
This year he is hitting 290 with 18 HR and 44 RBI as of this posting. Those two guys are powering the Mets along. However, they have other talent on the offense
that has really played at its highest level ever to this point. Lucas Duda is a slugger who hit 27 HR last
year. He had 7 so far this season before
a stress fracture in his back sent him to the DL. The Mets have signed James Loney, but he’s a
very different kind of hitter. Speaking
of different kind of hitters, Curtis Granderson continues to serve as a
non-traditional leadoff hitter. Last
year he hit 259, which isn’t bad but generally not high enough for a leadoff
man. He’s also got prodigious power,
which is generally reserved for the middle of the order to drive in runs. But his OBP of 364 kept him leading off. He also still has speed with 11 SB. He hit 26 HR out of the leadoff hole with 70
RBI and 98 R. So it has worked for New
York in the past, but this year Granderson is greatly struggling. The big surprise has been Neil Walker. He’s a 272 career hitter with generally
around 15 HR a season. This year he
already has 11 HR. He has really helped power
the Mets to first place in the division.
David Wright was only playing part time, but an injury has knocked him
out for a while, leaving Wilmer Flores to man the hot corner and seeing the
Mets trade for Kelly Johnson from the Braves for the second straight year. Also on the bench are Alejandro de Aza and
Juan Lagares and multiple catchers to make up for the often injured Travis
d’Arnaud, who is once again injured. The
outfield defense will be key on this club.
Cespedes starts at center, but isn’t great in the position. Conforto starts in left, and is also a
defensive liability. So having de Aza
and Lagares able to sub in late in games is key. The defense in the infield looks solid and
will get better with Loney at first.
But the real power on this team is in the pitching
staff. Harvey has been an ace. deGrom has shown ace ability. Syndergaard may be the best of the bunch. Colon is a wily veteran who continues to play
at a high level. Matz is a promising
young lefty. And this staff will get to
add Zach Wheeler when he returns halfway through the season from Tommy
John. But the current newsmaker is Matt
Harvey, who is really struggling. Last
year he went 13-8 in 29 starts with a 2.71 ERA and 188 Ks in 189 IP. And he was hot in the playoffs. But that magic has not carried over. He started off ice cold with an ERA over 6
moving into June. He’s gotten better
recently dropping that ERA under 5, but its something the Mets have to be
concerned with. Not sure what the issue is as he still has dominant
innings. But guys aren’t missing his
stuff right now and he is getting hammered.
Luckily for the Mets, his starting brethren have his back. Noah Syndergaard made 24 starts last year
going 9-7 with a 3.24 ERA. He also
struck out 166 in 150 IP. That’s
insane. He’s even better this year as
their most dominant pitcher to this point.
Jacob deGrom is also spinning gems.
He made 30 starts last year with a 14-8 record and 2.54 ERA. He struck out 205 in 191 IP a year after his
Rookie of the Year campaign. He hasn’t
had his strikeout stuff so far this year, but is still playing well, on his way
to a strong season. Bartolo Colon is
still playing well in his 19th season. He’s not an ace like the others, but he is
fun. Last year he won 14 games with a
4.16 ERA. This year he’s pitching to a
sub 4 ERA and his first career home run.
They have a strong closer in Jeurys Familia and a good setup man in
Addison Reed bolstering a bullpen made up of other good arms. The pitching staff is the key to this team’s
success and why they will be in the conversation for the playoffs all year.
The Mets are a good team.
They have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors. While I don’t think they are an elite team,
they are lucky enough to play in a division with two rebuilding teams and
another team they should regularly beat.
While I think the Nationals, Giants, Cubs, Cards and Pirates are all
better for sure, the Central teams will beat up on each other. I thought there were 3 good NL West teams
that would beat up on each other too, though that looks unlikely now. Either way, the Mets should be in the
conversation all year long. But I think
they are a flawed offensive team and will fall behind the Nats and end up
looking in from the outside of the playoffs as the Central and West take the
wildcard spots.
Miami Marlins
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
2B Dee Gordon
LF Christian Yelich
RF Giancarlo
Stanton
CF Marcell Ozuna
3B Martin Prado
1B Justin Bour
C J.T. Realmuto
SS Adeiny
Hechavarria
RHP Jose Fernandez
LHP Wei Yen Chen
LHP Adam Conley
RHP Tom Koehler
LHP Justin Nicolino
CLOSER A.J. Ramos
The Marlins are probably the most loathed franchise in
baseball. Well maybe that’s not
fair. Everyone hates the Yankees except
their fans. But there is no ownership
group more despised than that of Jeffrey Loria and David Samson. And they should be. They are everything that’s wrong with
professional sports, capitalism and probably happiness in this world. However, this season, their team is playing
really good baseball. They are currently
in third place, but only 2 games behind the Mets for second and 4.5 back from
Washington. And they are doing this with
Dee Gordon suspended and Giancarlo Stanton struggling. I don’t think they can keep this up, but the
Marlins have some talent on the team that has them looking good for the near
future and certainly competitive if not more for this season.
This offense was pretty anemic last year. But they are pretty much the same crew this
year and are fantastic at the plate.
Giancarlo Stanton is their star.
A premier power hitter, Stanton hit 27 HR in only 74 games last
year. But an injury shortened his
year. He’s only made it to 150 games
once (right at 150 in 2011) and only surpassed 120 games 3 times. If he’s healthy, he is a great power hitter
who hits a respectable 260+. He’s also a
great defender in right with sneaky speed (13/15 on the bags in 2014). But he’s off to a bad start this year,
despite the good power numbers. Even a
slumping Stanton can hit for great power, but the Marlins need him to be a good
overall hitter (260+/35-40 HR/100 RBI/80 R) if they are going to be a playoff
team. He’s not looking like that hitter
so far this year. Their other offensive
star is Dee Gordon. Last season he hit
333 with 58 SB and 88 R. He’s got no
power and also lacks elite OBP. But if
he hits for a high enough AVG, he is a good leadoff hitter. However a PED suspension has taken him out
for 80 games this year. I like him when
he gets back, but will the Marlins still be in contention when he returns in
late July? Christian Yelich is becoming
a star as well. A good season last year
(300 in 126 games with 16 SB and a 366 OBP), he is hitting 311 as of this
posting. The Marlins need him to stay
hot as well as Martin Prado. The veteran
Prado is playing well at third currently hitting 320. He’s a career 292 hitter, but lacks power and
speed. He is a good piece, but can’t do
it alone. He’s had help from Marcell
Ozuna this year, though. A 259 player
with 10 HR last year, Ozuna was a disappointment. But he’s blossomed under the hitting tutelage
of Barry Bonds and his currently hitting 3123with 15 HR. He is carrying the team and looks like he has
finally fulfilled his potential. This
offense is playing well, but my concern is that some of these hitters are
playing above their skills and can’t keep it up.
The pitching staff has talent, but is also probably a year
or two away from being elite. Jose
Fernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball. They are hoping he’s back to full health now
as he is playing well to start this year.
In 14 starts, he’s gone 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 125 Ks in only 87
IP. I like him for 200 IP and maybe 250
Ks with possibly 15 Wins this year. He’s
an ace, but seemingly not overly popular in the clubhouse, this is why he is
frequently listed as a possible trade candidate. Wei Yen Chen, the free agent signee, is a
quality lefty with a different skillset than Fernandez. Jose strikes you out, Chen gets you to get
yourself out with weak contact. He is an
average to above average number 2 who might play better out of Baltimore, a
great hitting park. He got better in his
seasons in Baltimore with a career low 3.34 ERA last year. He’s never made it to 200 IP, but has never
had fewer than 135 either, generally averaging about 180. He’s not a strikeout guy, but could win
double-digit games on this team with an ERA around 3.75. He is a quality lefty who should be very good
in Miami’s park. The rest of the starting rotation features Tom Koehler, Adam
Conley and Justin Nicolino. They have
talent and could develop into a good back end of the rotation. But I don’t think they will be enough to help
the Marlins contend this year. The
bullpen has some good arms, including closer A.J. Ramos and setup man Mike
Dunn. But they lack depth and
experience. As with the rest of this
team, the Marlins have talent and potential.
They should compete this year, but probably aren’t going to the playoffs
for a few years.
The Marlins aren’t a bad team. They have offensive talent and some good arms
in the rotation. The defense is solid
and they have a bright future. They
should be competitive this season and despite their hot start, I think they
will end up in third place as the Nats and Mets have also gotten off to a good
start. They have a bright future,
perhaps a bright near future, but they aren’t on my list of playoff teams this
year.
Atlanta Braves
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
LF Ender Inciarte
RF Nick Markakis
1B Freddie Freeman
3B Adonis Garcia
C A.J.
Pierzynski
2B Jace Peterson
SS Eric Aybar
CF Mallex Smith
RHP Julio Tehran
RHP Matt Wisler
RHP Mike Foltynewicz
RHP Williams Perez
RHP Aaron Blair
This is a rough year for Braves fans. One of MLB’s seminal and most respected
franchises have fallen on hard times.
They are in a clear re-build, but even so this team is far worse than
anyone expected. And to fall short of
expectations that were so incredibly low is almost an achievement in and of
itself. But, overall, this team is
struggling badly this year and while the future looks bright, it is at best 2
years away, meaning this year and likely all of next year will be a waste, the
same as last year.
The real issue is the offense. And I don’t mean that the pitching is good
but the team can’t hit. The pitching
isn’t good. But the team REALLY can’t
hit. They are trying to rebuild, though
you could argue this level of re-build was not necessary. No need to re-hash what the Braves decided
before the 2015 season (a playoff team selling off Jason Heyward, Justin Upton,
B.J (Melvin) Upton, Craig Kimbrel and more), suffice it to say that the past
offseason was more of the same (Shelby Miller, Andrelton Simmons). While the return was vast and sets the team up
for the future, it continued to frustrate and alienate the dwindling number of
Braves fans who want to follow this team.
This ownership group is new and frankly not that interested in the
baseball team. The Braves are a part of
a larger corporation. Corporations are
run by boards of directors that want to make money. That is good for the corporation overall, but
bad for the team as they are treated like numbers on a ledger, rather than a
team owned by a single person or family that wants to win and sees the players
as friends and employees. It’s bad for
the fans, bad for the team and bad for baseball. But nothing can be done to change that. Instead, the Braves will just have to win in
their future, in a window that will likely be small as they have to be making
money or another re-build will begin, warranted or not. This team’s offense is led by Freddie
Freeman. He is a 270-280 hitter with 25
HR power. On a good team that can lead
to 100 RBI. On this team, it’s likely
closer to 70. He’s struggled some this
year but is playing well now. He is a
good hitter with plus power and a good glove.
He will likely be the rock of the franchise, unless the Braves get a
phenomenal offer for him. And while
that’s unlikely, it’s not off the table.
Nick Markakis was a veteran signing from last offseason. The signing made no sense. But he’s a good player, though perhaps on the
downturn of his career. He can still hit
for a good AVG (270+), get on base at a high rate and play Gold Glove caliber
right field. But he’s no longer a top 3
defensive right fielder (though still likely top 10) and has lost both speed
and power. The best thing for Atlanta is
if he can get hot and they can flip him for prospects, though his contract
isn’t overly friendly (but not awful either).
The rest of the team is made up of mainly castoffs and young guys. Ender Inciarte stands out amongst them, as he
has had success with Arizona at the major league level. While he’s off to a slow start this year,
he’s shown some recent signs of life. He
hit 303 in 132 games in the desert last year and 278 in 118 games the year
before. He can play center well and is
great in left. He lacks power (10 career
HR in almost 300 games), but has stolen 19 and 21 bases in his two shortened
big league seasons. And while he’s not
an on base machine, he hits for a high enough average to make up for some of
that. He can start in center now, and
perhaps move to a corner when the Braves contend in the future. The rest of the offense is not worth
mentioning because they have never been great or they haven’t had enough
experience to merit discussion. There is
talent in the minors and even on the major league club (Dansby Swanson, Mallex
Smith, Ozzie Albies), but it’s not ready and likely won’t be a real threat
until late next year at the earliest.
The pitching staff is in a little better shape, but it too
is more built for tomorrow rather than today.
The ace of the staff is Julio Tehran and he’s very good. Last year was rough (4.04 ERA) but the year
before he had a 2.89 ERA. This year’s
ERA is 2.66 to this point. And his WHIP
and BAA are currently at career lows.
The win /loss record is not great, but that’s not really his fault. And while his K-rate isn’t great, it’s not
awful. He’s a good young pitcher who is
likely better as a number 2, but may grow into an ace. The rest of the rotation is largely
unproven. Bud Norris is around as a spot
starter and long man. The rest of the
starting staff are youngsters trying to make a name for themselves. They include Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair and
Mike Folytnewicz. While they have had a
taste of major league experience, all are still growing and learning the game
at this level. Again, bright futures but
not much happening in the present.
Growing pains will limit this team’s success at the top level this
season and likely next. The bullpen has
some live arms, but again more secondary options that lack excitement. Arodys Vizcaino could be a solid closer, but
he’s not a sure thing either at this point.
The pitching staff looks better than the offense, but all their talent
will likely not come together until next season at the earliest.
The Braves are in the middle of a serious re-build. It has been a long time since they have been
in this territory, but based on the moves the new ownership group has made,
it’s not surprising. The thought is that
it will be a short rebuild, because the Braves had so much great major league
talent that they parted with to really jumpstart the rebuilding process
(Heyward, Upton, Simmons, Kimbrel, etc).
That’s all good news. But the bad
news is that they are awful this season, weren’t good last season and don’t
look like they’ll be good next season.
What makes things worse is that this is their last year in Turner Field,
and they are moving to a new stadium in Cobb County that many locals are upset
about and that the ownership group seems excited about for all the wrong
reasons (a.k.a….the new shops that will be around the stadium and all that
revenue). It’s hard to be a Braves fan right
now. This team is constantly changing to
try and rebuild and they have already set Jason Grilli and Kelly Johnson free
this year. They want to flip more guys,
but lack desirable trade targets.
Suffice it to say, while I saw this team as a fourth place finisher
coming into the season, it’s clear that they are going to finish last and may
be the worst team in baseball, and are certainly the worst in the National
League.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
CF Odubell Hererra
SS Freddy Galvis
3B Maikel Franco
1B Ryan Howard
C Carlos Ruiz
LF Tyler Goeddel
RF Peter Bourjous
2B Cesar Hernandez
RHP Jeremy Hellickson
RHP Aaron Nola
RHP Vince Velasquez
RHP Jared Eickhoff
RHP Charlie Morton
CLOSER David Hernandez
The Phillies are the second team in a rebuild in the NL
East. However, while I expected them to
be the one in the basement, they started out playing very well. While they have cooled significantly, the
Phillies look like they will avoid the NL East’s bottom spot this year and
might be closer to contending than Atlanta, which is not really what many
expected coming into this year.
The Phillies have some good press around them right now, but
are definitely in a rebuild. The knock
against them is that they were the last humans on earth to realize that they
should be sellers the last few years.
But after moving on from Ruben Amaro Jr., the new front office group did
what should have happened three years ago and started the rebuild. And they are really coming along ahead of
schedule. There is some intriguing young
talent on this team, but most of it is unproven. Coming into this season, Maikel Franco was
the name everyone was keeping an eye on.
Like the rest of the team, his experience is thin. But last year he played in 80 games hitting
280 with 14 HR and 50 RBI. He is
experiencing growing pains this season, as you might expect, but the power is
there with 12 HR already this year in fewer games. But the AVG has fallen about 40 points. I like his bat and think he could threaten
for 25 HR in that park. But I’d be
surprised if he hit too far north of 250 this year. If he continues to grow, he could develop
into a 280/30/100 hitter for Philly, but I don’t think that will be this
year. The name that has really jumped
out this year has been Odubell Herrera.
A rule 5 pick, Herrera has become the primary leadoff man in the city of
Brotherly Love. He got his first MLB
action last year and ended up playing 137 games and chasing Ben Revere out of
center field, even before he was traded.
He hit 297 last year with 16 SB, a 344 OBP and 8 HR. This year, he already has 7 HR to go with a
303 AVG, 11 SB and a 398 OBP. He is one
of those finds that you don’t expect to get, but are so key to turning a team
into a contender. I love him as a player
and see him as a guy who should hit 285+ with maybe 12 HR, 80+ R and 20
SB. The rest of the offense features
youngsters who are trying to make a name for themselves and veterans who are
past their prime or have never really been super successful in the big
leagues. Peter Bourjous is the primary
right fielder, but offers little besides speed.
Carlos Ruiz is still catching, but has never been a great hitter
(outside of a few seasons which included a PED suspension). And Ryan Howard is just running the clock out
until he is cut. The Phillies hope he
catches fire and they can flip him to a contender at the deadline. But that seems unlikely, even with the Phillies
agreeing to take the majority of his money on.
This offense is not great. There
is some talent, even beyond the names I mentioned. But this offense won’t really be one to be
feared this season.
The pitching staff is in a similar spot, but maybe a little
farther ahead. Aaron Nola is the big
name arm that people recognize. Last
year he went 6-2 in 13 starts with a 3.59 ERA.
He was hot to start the year with a 2.65 ERA in his first 12 starts, but
has struggled since then with an ERA over 4 at this point. He has great talent, but needs experience and
will have to learn to adapt, as all players do.
If healthy, he may amass 200 IP, but likely with an ERA around 4,
possibly in the high 3s. Jeremy
Hellickson is a veteran name, but not one who excites anyone. He hasn’t had a year with a sub 4.50 ERA
since 2012. He is an innings eater at
this point, but those are important for re-building teams. If he can prove he can hold down innings
consistently, he could be perhaps flipped for prospects. But I don’t know that he will get a good
return and the Phillies may opt to keep him in that case, despite the fact that
he is likely a 200 IP player with a losing record and an ERA north of
4.50. The rest of the pitching staff
features young arms with talent, but no experience and bullpen arms that are trying
to re-invent themselves. Jeanmar Gomez
and David Hernandez are people worth watching, but neither will likely greatly
affect the team this year and possibly in the future when they are
competitive. Like most rebuilding teams,
the pitching staff will be a bit of a revolving door as many arms come in and
the Phillies just make notes about who can help them now and in the future,
with more emphasis on the future.
This team is headed in the right direction. They aren’t very good. So, they hope the Nationals and Mets will
start to move away from their peak when they are ready to contend. They also hope to beat the Braves out on
their path to contention. Phillies fans
are historically impatient, but this team has been worse off than they were
acknowledged to be by the front office for so long, that the fans were almost
begging for a re-build. So the Phillies
have a rare reprieve from their fans and will hope to take advantage by
building up a winner as soon as possible.
However, that won’t be this year, and I doubt it will be next year either.
