SAN DIEGO PADRES 76-86
(Tied for third in NL West)
Projected Lineup/Batting Order:
SS Everth
Cabrera
CF Will Venable
3B Chase Headley
LF Carlos
Quentin
1B Yonder Alonso
RF Seth Smith
2B Jed Gyorko
C Nick Hundley
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Andrew
Cashner
SP Ian Kennedy
SP Eric Stults
SP Josh Johnson
SP Tyson Ross
RP Huston Street
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP Dale Thayer
The Padres are a team almost through with their
re-build. As such, they are often
overlooked as not being horribly bad and not being good enough to get into the
playoffs. This year some people have
them as dark horse candidates to make some noise in the NL West, but we are
talking finishing third, not contending for the playoffs. I think they have talent and it’s all young
talent so that bodes well for their future.
But I don’t think they are ready to contend just yet, and I also think
this year may be a struggle for the Padres.
Their offense is made up of players who were anonymous a few
years ago. Now they are names people
recognize, but don’t think much about.
They may know the names but not the faces. The leadoff guy is perhaps one of the
better-known names, but he’s more infamous than famous. He was one of the players suspended for 50
games as part of the Biogenesis scandal, one of the many names overlooked due
to the others involved like Nelson Cruz or Alex Rodriguez. But the shortstop served his time and is back
to leadoff for the Padres this year. His
main weapon is his speed as he’s got easy 50-steal ability, but he was never on
base enough. But after a hot start to
2013 he hit 283 with 37 SB and a 355 OBP.
That’s what they wanted to see from him and it led to 54 R in 95
games. Just imagine those totals over a
full year. He’s not a power hitter so he
was taking PEDs to stay healthy, something he’s struggled with over his
career. But a full season of him should
easily see 50 SBs. However he is once
again injured and Alex Amarista is in his place. He’s not the same player and injuries
continue to derail the career of the talented Evreth Cabrera. I put right fielder Will Venable in the
number 2 hole. He had the quietest 20/20
season in baseball. Now this guy isn’t a
star with his 268 AVG and 312 OBP last year, but is a quality player. He’s actually an ideal number 2 man with the
speed to get on base and make some noise for the thunder behind him in the
lineup, and the power to drive in the leadoff guy when he gets on in front of
him. He’s not going to win you games on
his own, but he has a unique skillset that is very helpful in a major league
lineup. And that brings us to Chase
Headley. No one knows what to expect
from this guy. He broke out in 2012,
leading the NL in RBI with 115 to go with his 286 AVG, 17 SB and 31 HR. Then he followed that up with a
250/13/50/59/8 campaign in 141 games. I
think the true Chase Headley lies somewhere between those two guys. Think 260+ with 18 HR, 70 RBI and 12 SB. The real question is, do the Padres keep him
to be their future team’s cornerstone, or sell him off for the final pieces of
their future club? The answer will tell
people a lot about what kind of player San Diego thinks he is. That’s the top of the order, and it’s pretty
formidable as far as MLB lineups go. You’ve
got a guy with great speed and OBP potential leading off, a power/speed player
in the two hole and a guy who does a bit of everything well hitting third. But it drops off after those three. Carlos Quentin will be in the cleanup
hole. Since his great year with Chicago
in 2008, we’ve seen the same thing out of him every year. A middle of the road average and great power,
to go with injury and limited games played.
Last year’s edition was 13 HR in 82 games. The year before was 16 in 86. With 100 games we have the potential for 20
HR, 30 with 130+ games. But that’s a big
if. And that’s all he really delivers
now. Young first baseman Yonder Alonso
is next in my lineup. He hasn’t reached
his power potential yet, but hits for higher AVG than most other first
basemen. He hit 281 with 6 HR and 45 RBI
in 97 games. The year before saw 9 HR
and 62 RBI. They like his AVG but want
more run production. He’s still young
and entering his power prime, so maybe it happens. But right now, I’m putting his HR ceiling at
12 and RBI ceiling at 70. Pair that with
another 275 AVG and that’s what the Padres likely get from their first baseman
this year. The got plenty of power from
second base, though, with the even younger Jed Gyorko doing the majority of the
damage. He popped 23 dingers to go with
his 249 AVG. You usually expect that
from the first baseman, but they’ll take it where they can. It was his first season in the big leagues,
so we don’t know what he’ll do. But they
like his power and need it. However
Petco is a hard place to hit, and year two is always harder than year one on
hitters. I’d expect a slight decrease,
perhaps 15 HR this season with another 250 AVG.
In addition, he’s lost time due to injury so that hurts his overall
projection. I originally put speedy
Cameron Maybin in the seventh spot.
However he’s lost playing time to the talented Seth Smith. Smith currently leads the team with a 273
AVG, 9 HR and 26 RBI. Those numbers
aren’t good enough to lead a team in anything, but it is good for a player that
was considered a back up. He’s taken
over in the lineup and I put him up hitting 6th. He’ll stay in the lineup unless he’s traded
away. Grandal will hit 8th. Grandal was a big part of the Reds
organization, but was traded a while ago to San Diego. He’s missed time due to injury and a PED
suspension. The good news is he was in
the first round of Biogenesis suspensions and is past everything. That’s the offense. It’s not great, but serviceable. There is depth with veterans Chris Denorfia
and Cameron Maybin on the bench, not to mention Kyle Blanks, a longtime
prospect with a huge ceiling that hasn’t yet lived up to his power
potential. However the biggest
impediment to offense in San Diego has been and will continue to be Petco Park,
the most pitcher friendly haven in the game.
Defensively the park helps a lot. But the talent in the field isn’t bad
either. Cameron Maybin and Will Venable
are very good in center and right respectively.
However Smith will move to right with his talent knocking Maybin out of
the lineup. So while Smith’s defense is
good in right, Venable is a step down in center. Carlos Quentin is pretty bad, but now that
he’s in left it has mitigated his deficiencies some. Yonder Alonso isn’t a bad defensive first
baseman. The rest of the infield is
pretty good with Gyorko, Cabrera and Headly moving across the diamond from
second to short to third. And Nick
Hundley’s defense is very strong behind the plate.
The interesting thing about the Padres is that they have one
of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
And they have some good pitchers.
But they aren’t great in that area of the game, despite how much that
would help them in their home park. Their
ace has become Andrew Cashner, a former reliever who found great success as a
starter the last two years. His first
year, 2012, was a little rocky but last year he was great. He went 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA. He’s not a big strikeout guy but turned in
175 IP with a good 1.13 WHIP and 233 BAA.
Now those aren’t exactly ace numbers, especially in a great pitchers
park like Petco, but he’s very effective.
Unfortunately he’s been set down with an injury. There’s no shoulder structural damage, which
is good news. But with the team trailing
in the standings by so much, the Padres are doing the smart thing and not
rushing him back. The newest Padre
starter is free agent signee, Josh Johnson.
Johnson is a former All Star who has fallen on hard times. After missing well over half his starts 2 of
the last 3 years, Johnson really struggled through 16 bad starts in Toronto
last year. He was 2-8 with a 6.20
ERA. His WHIP and BAA were atrocious, so
there was concern he wouldn’t be able to turn it around. The good news is that Toronto is not a good
place to pitch and he’s out of there.
Also San Diego is a great place to pitch. So perhaps he can turn it around. That is the hope. He’s not the pitcher that he was last year,
but he may not be the same pitcher he was when he was an All Star. The true Josh Johnson lies somewhere in
between. However he’s another player
that has been lost to injury and he’ll be gone the rest of the year as he
undergoes Tommy John. That has led the
Padres to relying heavily on their other reclamation project, Ian Kennedy. He went 21-4 in 2011 with a 2.88 ERA for
Arizona. The last three years his ERA
climbed to 4.02 after his career year and then all the way to 5.23 last
year. He spent one of those three years
in San Diego already with a 4.24 ERA in 10 starts. Hopefully a return to Petco will help those
numbers improve, but with more bad years than good years in his career, the All
Star season of 2011 is looking more and more like an outlier. The rest of the starting rotation is made up
to Tyson Ross and Eric Stults. After
being fairly unsuccessful as a spot starter in Oakland, Ross had a good year in
San Diego last year. Both Oakland and
San Diego are good places to pitch, so perhaps his growth was due to
experience, which would be a good sign.
In 16 starts and 19 relief appearances last year he went 3-8, but turned
in a 3.17 ERA and 225 BAA. He still
walks too many guys and tries to strikeout too many guys. But if he can pitch to contact and let his
home park help him out, he’ll be in good shape.
A full season as a starter could see 200 innings and 170 Ks to go with
an ERA around 4. But we can’t know for
sure as he’s still fairly inexperienced.
Stutlts is also a former reliever who has been starting more
recently. His career line is longer than
Tyson Ross’, but his last two seasons starting have been better than any others
in his career. Last season he made his
full 33 starts with an 11-13 record and 3.93 ERA. The concern is that his WHIP and BAA were a
little high, so you worry about regression.
But in San Diego he may be okay. But
the Padres have lost two starters and more will be counted on from Stults and
Ross. They’ve turned to a number of
other guys to fill out the rotation including Tim Stauffer and Robbie Erlin,
but none has been that great. The
bullpen is one of the strongest parts of this team with Huston Street as an
experienced, albeit not great closer and Joaquin Benoit, a career setup man who
succeeded as a closer in Detroit last year.
However Street has been awesome this season and Benoit has been solid in
his new setup role. Dale Thayer is a
great setup man and the rest of the bullpen is made up of live arms that have
some talent. It’s not the best bullpen
in the game, but with three good arms and more with good stuff, the Padres
should be okay.
Outlook/Prediction:
The Padres have a lot of young players so their outlook for
the future is bright. But perhaps not as
bright as other re-building clubs. What
we know is that this year they will struggle.
They have young offensive players, who aren’t overly talented and play
in a park that smothers offense. They
have a young pitching staff that depends on their home park protecting them,
but they don’t have the best stuff in the world. Overall this team has some potential, but
isn’t ready yet. And this will not be
their year. I think they will improve,
but 500 is their ceiling. I’m putting
them down for 60 Wins and a last place finish in the NL West.
