Toronto Blue Jays 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Baseball is a third of the way through the season.  And we are still knocking out these team breakdowns.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the whole NL and have moved on to the AL East.  The fourth team I’ll tackle in the East will be the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays:

2012 Record: 79-83  4^th in AL East

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        J.P. Arencibia

1B-      Edwin Encarnacion

2B-      Emilio Bonifacio

SS-       Jose Reyes

3B-      Brett Lawrie

LF-       Melky Cabrera

CF-      Colby Rasmus

RF-      Jose Bautista

DH-     Adam Lind

Starting Rotation:      R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson,                                            Ricky Romero

Bullpen:                      Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, Sergio Santos, Brett Cecil, Steve                                       Delabar, Esmil Rogers

Projected Batting Order

SS-       Jose Reyes

LF-       Melky Cabrera

RF-      Jose Bautista

1B-      Edwin Encarnacion

3B-      Brett Lawrie

DH-     Adam Lind

C-        J.P. Arencibia

CF-      Colby Rasmus

2B-      Emilio Bonifacio

The Toronto Blue Jays took a step back last year.  This team has been lurking just outside the playoff picture for years, always a step back from being a part of October.  GM Alex Anthopolous built a talented young team that was getting closer and closer to playoff caliber.  However injuries completely derailed those plans as the Blue Jays spent the majority of the year without Jose Bautista and the rest of their playmakers. This year, they are still unhealthy despite pulling off the biggest offseason trade as the Marlins punted on the next decade and sent the majority of their stars to Canada.  Toronto gladly took them on, to add a bunch of quality veterans to an already strong core, and then adding NL Cy Young Winner R.A. Dickey.  This team has a lot of hype around them and I picked them to win the AL East.  However, in getting this breakdown out late, I can see that the injuries to Reyes and Johnson have taken quite a toll, not to mention the ineffectiveness from other stars and the Blue Jays are starting to look at this season as one they’d like to forget.

With the loss of Bautista last year, the door opened for another hitter to step up.  And one definitely answered the call.  It was Edwin Encarnacion who had an incredible season.  Encarnacion led the team with a 280 AVG, 42 HR and 110 RBI.  He also had a team leading 93 R and a 384 OBP.  He was a true star putting together an MVP caliber season.  He’s always had good power, but really put it all together last year.  It’s unlikely that he can play like that again in 2013, but if he can stay healthy and hit above 260, then I think 30 HR and 90+ RBI should be a cinch.  The best hitter on this team is still Jose Bautista, who was able to club 27 HR in only 92 games.  The 241 AVG isn’t what we are used to, but he was injured for part of those games.  He’s not really a 300 hitter.  I’m thinking a healthy season should see 270 with 30-35 HR easy, and perhaps 100 RBI too.  The Blue Jays have two guys with the exact same skill set, and that skill set has 40 HR, 120 RBI potential.  That’s nice.  There has obviously been a lot of turnover on this team now with all the new guys joining Toronto via trade.  They have a new middle infield.  Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar have been replaced with Emilio Bonifacio and Jose Reyes.  You have to think that’s an upgrade, especially on the base paths.  Bonifacio struggled through an injury-plagued season last year, playing only 64 games.  He still snagged 30 bags in that time with a 258 AVG and 330 OBP.  His last full season saw a 296 AVG with 40 SB.  In Toronto, he should get a lot of time all over the field, playing multiple positions, and if healthy, could steal 40 bags and score 75 R, even hitting 9^th.  Reyes was the real offensive jewel of the trade.  Even after a down year, he still hit 287 with 40 SBs and 86 R.  He’s been down with an injury, but if he can come back healthy then he’ll be a key piece for this team’s offense.  Until then, you might see Bonifacio leading off and upping his SB and R numbers.  Another young star to watch is third baseman Brett Lawrie.  He hit 273 with 11 HR, 48 RBI and 73 R in only 125 games last year.  He also swiped 13 bags.  He’s a 5-tool player with a bright future.  A lot of people thought he’d have a bigger year, but he still played well in his limited time.  I think a full season could see 15/15 with a 275 AVG, 75 RBI and 75 R.  Perhaps not a super star, but a great all around player.  Beyond those offensive leaders, we have a lot of talent from guys who aren’t expected to carry the team.  Melky Cabrera was signed to a 1-year deal after his great season was discovered to have been aided by PEDs.  He served his suspension last season and the Jays hope that he can be an effective number 2 man, perhaps hitting 270 with 15/15 potential, 70 RBI and 80 R.  Behind the plate J.P Arencibia clubbed 18 HR in 102 games.  They’d love to see that AVG climb up, but are happy with him hitting 20 HR in his time catching.  Colby Rasmus had a similar season, but has the tools to hit for a much higher AVG.  But even with his 223 AVG he hit 23 HR with 75 RBI.  This year think 250, with 20 HR and 70 RBI.  And Adam Lind can also chip in 15 HR if healthy.  Lots of power on this team.  And they’ve added speed as well.  I think they’ll be able to score a lot of runs.  And that will be one of their keys to success.

This pitching staff was not as strong last year.  Their “ace”, Ricky Romero, really struggled with a 5.77 ERA and 9-14 record.  That’s not good.  At all.  His WHIP was through the roof at 1.67 and hitters hit 282 against him.  He had an All Star season the year before and has plenty of talent and skill.  He should be able to split the difference with ease, if only because he was so bad last season.  Think double digit wins with an ERA around 4.  Their best pitcher last season was Brandon Morrow, who was great in 21 games last year.  He finally stopped focusing on the strikeout and the results were great.  He had a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to go with a great 214 BAA.  His Ks dropped to 108 in 124 IP, but the other numbers were much more important.  If he can stay healthy over a full year and has committed to pitching against contact (to get groundouts) then he could win 15+ games with an ERA around 3.  He’s my Cy Young dark horse, though now I’m regretting that pick.  The rest of this rotation is new.  R.A. Dickey will be the number 1 starter after his great season.  He was 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA in his Cy Young season.  He had a great 1.05 WHIP and 226 BAA.  He struck out 230 in 233 IP and only walked 54, which was fantastic for a knuckleballer.  You worry about his continued success, especially since knuckleballs are incredibly hard to control.  But Dickey controls his better, possibly than any other knuckleballer in history.  I don’t think he’ll be nearly as good this year, considering his age, the type of pitcher he is and the move to a much tougher division.  He could win 15, but I’m putting that as his ceiling with an ERA around 3.25 and 200 Ks in 210 IP.  And if he’s going to get there this year, he really needs to turn it around.  The next new pitcher in Toronto is Mark Buehrle.  Buehrle was 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA last year.  He’s not overpowering and actually throws one of the slowest pitches in the game.  But he is a wily veteran with great movement on his pitches that can eat innings (202 last year) and keep runners from scoring.  He doesn’t beat himself, keeping the walks low.  So even with a BAA slightly higher than average (258) his WHIP was still below average at 1.17 due to only 40 BBs.  He’s had success in the AL before, but now has to spend his whole year in the AL East.  Think 12 Wins with an ERA around 4.  Joining Buehrle on the Miami to Toronto flight was Josh Johnson.  Johnson was healthy last year after pitching in only 9 games in 2011.  He had a tough 8-14 record, but only a 3.81 ERA.  He was much better than his record with 165 Ks in 191 IP, the sub-4 ERA and a WHIP and BAA that was merely slightly above average.  The former ERA title winner didn’t return to his All Star form, but is young and has the ability to pitch like an All Star.  Toronto is a much tougher place to pitch than Miami, but the run support he’ll get will be immeasurably better.  And as the number 4 starter, the expectations are much lower.  He’s another guy I’m putting down for 12 Wins with an ERA around 4, maybe a tick under.  He won’t strike out 200, but could pitch 200 innings.  Or at least he could have before that injury.  With Dickey and Morrow up front, Buehrle and Johnson in the middle and Romero taking the 5^th spot (with J.A. Happ there to help if he falters) the Blue Jays really liked their starting rotation.  But, things never work out as planned, and that rotation has greatly struggled so far this year.  It’s the main reason the Blue Jays are looking up from the cellar.  The bullpen doesn’t look much better, but there is talent there.  The closer role has gone to Casey Janssen, though Sergio Santos is lurking in the background if he falters.  Janssen Saved 22 games with a 2.54 ERA and 67 Ks in 63 IP.  He had a fantastic 0.86 WHIP and 195 BAA.  Sergio Santos didn’t play a lot last year, and frankly didn’t play well in his limited opportunities.  But he throws heat and should be a force in the 7^th and 8^th innings.  In addition the Jays had Steve Delabar who had 8 Holds and a 3.38 ERA and Darren Oliver with 16 Holds and stellar 2.06 ERA.  The back end of the bullpen looks strong with depth and former starters Brett Cecil and J.A. Happ will be the long men and spot starters.  They are solid, if unspectacular and there is good depth to this team.  The whole pitching staff is solid and will be supported by a terrific offense.  The Jays hope this will deliver them a ton of Wins and, maybe an AL East title.

2013 Prediction:

The Blue Jays are going for it all this year.  And it looks like they chose a good time to do it.  After struggling for years to make some noise, despite consistent 500 or better finishes, this team put together a strong core and traded for some great veteran leadership.  And of all the time I wish I could take back I pick I made early in the year, this has to be the one that kills me the most.  I do stand by it, though I now know it won’t happen.  Injuries are partly to blame.  But so is ineffectiveness.  That offense hasn’t delivered like we thought and the pitching has been atrocious.  I do feel good knowing that I didn’t think Dickey would deliver, but that Morrow pick is making me look foolish.  However I don’t think Anthopolous did anything wrong.  He saw the toughest division in baseball looking weak and winnable.  He was close to contending, but was at least 2 years away before the trades.  So he went for it all.  It was a good choice.  But you can’t control what the players do on the field.  You can’t keep guys healthy.  And you can’t count on teams like the Red Sox and Yankees over-performing.  This wasn’t his fault.  But it is what it is.  And that’s what I say when I pick a team to finish in first, that will likely finish in last.  

Tampa Bay Rays 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  We’re about a third of the way through the 2013 season.  And I’m finishing up my team breakdowns.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the entire National League and have moved on to the AL East.  This year I’m ranking the teams based on last year’s standings which means the third team I’ll look at will be the Tampa Bay Rays.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Jose Molina

1B-      James Loney

2B-      Kelly Johnson

SS-      Yunel Escobar

3B-      Even Longoria

LF-      Matt Joyce

CF-      Desmond Jennings

RF-      Ben Zobrist

DH-     Luke Scott

Starting Rotation:      David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb,                                                   Roberto Hernandez

Bullpen:                      Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee,                                        Cesar Ramos, Jamey Wright, Brandon Gomes

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Desmond Jennings

SS-      Yunel Escobar

3B-      Evan Longoria

RF-      Ben Zobrist

LF-      Matt Joyce

DH-     Luke Scott

C-        Jose Milina

2B-      Kelly Johnson

The Rays had a roller coaster year last season.  After slogging through the first half and losing their best player, their pitching kicked it into high gear and took them to within a breath of the playoffs.  Ultimately they finished in third place behind the Yankees and Orioles and just missed out on playoff baseball.  This year, they hope their pitching will be strong all year and that they will have enough offense to take them not only to the playoffs, but hopefully to an AL East division title.

This team was built around a strong pitching staff.  This offense doesn’t necessarily inspire fear in the hearts of their opponents.  With Evan Longoria missing over half the season, Ben Zobrist was the leading hitter on this club with a 270 AVG.  He also had 20 HR, 74 RBI, 88 R and 14 SB.  That’s fantastic output from someone who was essentially a super-utility man.  He plays right field, first, short and third.  They love his ability to play all over the field and fill in for people who need days off or get hurt.  However he is still a starter and will be on the field for every game, we just don’t know what position he’ll be playing on any given day.  BJ Upton led the team in HR and RBI with 28 and 78 respectively.  He’s now an Atlanta Brave.  Zobrist was second, but then Carlos Pena was third with 19 HR.  He’s now a Houston Astro.  The two guys tied for fourth were Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria who only played in 74 games.  And that helps illustrate part of the issue with Tampa Bay’s offense.  While there are great players and playmakers, there just aren’t a lot of stars and there is next to no power.  Matt Joyce is a solid player who had 17 HR to go with a 241 AVG.  He’s likely the starting left fielder on this team this year, but would be a 4^th outfielder on other clubs.  He gets the job done, but there is little upside with him.  With Joyce in left and Zobrist starting in right (assuming it’s a typical day where everyone is healthy) then Desmond Jennings is the center fielder and they need him to play much closer to his potential.  He played in 135 games last year with an impressive 13 HR (impressive for someone with his skill set).  But he only hit 246 with a 314 OBP.  That’s not what the Rays are looking for from a leadoff man.  He did steal 31 bases and score 85 R, but if he had upped his AVG to what a traditional leadoff man bats we could be looking at 40 SB and 100 R easily.  That’s where they need him to be this season, with an AVG over 270 and an OBP closer to 350.  However the biggest need in Tampa revolves around the health Evan Longoria.  He was very good in his 74 games with a 289 AVG, 17 HR and 55 RBI.  But he’s got to stay healthy, something he hasn’t really been able to do to well.  He’s considered one of the better hitters in the league, but has never had a 300 AVG and hasn’t driven in 100 R since 2010.  If he can stay healthy, I’m thinking 280 with 25 HR, 100 RBI and 90 R.  He won’t run much anymore and I think 10 SB would be his ceiling.  But that was always a bonus. They need him to be healthy and drive in R.  If he can do that then this offense has a chance.  The rest of the lineup isn’t awe-inspiring.  Luke Scott is the DH and can chip in 15 HR if healthy, but only hit about 230.  (229 with 14 HR in 96 games last year).  They took a shot on 3 players that others have given up on in Tampa, and each of them is playing a key infield position.  At first, we have James Loney who hit 249 with 6 HR in LA and Boston last year.  He’s seen his HR and RBI total drop for 4 straight years and his days of 280 are no longer assured.  His AVG has been below that mark for 2 of the last 3 years, and for a first baseman with no power, you have to hit for a good AVG.  However, coming out with this breakdown so late into the season, I have the benefit of seeing that Loney is having a comeback season.  I don’t like to change my initial thoughts, since this is supposed to be a pre-season breakdown (yeah I’m really behind).  So my initial thought was 250 with 10 HR, but I can obviously see that’s not the case.  However I did think that if anyone could work some magic on Loney, it would be Joe Maddon.  So in that point I’m right.  At second we have Kelly Johnson.  He had a full, healthy season in Toronto last year and hit 225.  He did have 16 HR and 14 SB, but that doesn’t play with that AVG.  He looks like a great potential number 2 hitter, but can’t really do that with a 225 AVG.  He still walks a lot, but his Ks have climbed the last 2 years and there may not be a lot of that old potential All Star left in him.  He may be a 15/15 man again, but 240 might be his ceiling.  The good news is that this up the middle defense has some experience together.  In Atlanta, Kelly Johnson played second on teams with Yunel Escobar at short.  They then met up again last year playing the middle infield positions with the Blue Jays.  So they should turn double plays just fine.  But that may be it.  Escobar, one of the cockiest and least likable individuals in the majors, found himself passed around like a sandwich nobody wanted this offseason.  He was shipped out of Toronto in the big deal with the Marlins, and then immediately flipped to Tampa Bay.  The book on him is that he’s always been talented, but was way too proud of his potential.  He was a bad teammate who only made headlines when he offended people with an insensitive remark in his eye black.  The day Alex Gonzalez arrived in Atlanta after being obtained from Toronto in a trade for Escobar, the Braves gave him a standing ovation upon entering the locker room.  This guy is way too proud of his skills, which really have been average at best.  He’s got a great arm, but makes a ton of mental mistakes in the field.  He never had much speed and his power hasn’t blossomed.  And his AVG isn’t anywhere near where you’d think it would be, especially considering his demeanor.  It’s like having A-Rod in your locker room, except this A-Rod has the skill set of an Eduardo Nunez.  He hit 290 in 2011, but only 253 last year.  He lost 2 HR off his total despite playing in 12 more games.  And his 51 RBI and 58 R were okay.  He may hit second in this offense.  And maybe playing with Joe Maddon and being a part of that great Ray clubhouse will make him a better player and teammate.  But for the time being he looks like a washed up veteran who is a bad clubhouse presence and never lived up to his potential.  The bench isn’t deep and catcher Jose Molina is a glove first man.  The fact is, Evan Longoria could be a star.  Desmond Jennings could be a menace at the top of the order.  And Ben Zobrist is a good player who can do a lot to help a team.  But they need to stay healthy, have better years and get some support from guys who have a lot of limitations.  In the end the Rays hope they’ve built the kind of offense that can consistently score 3-5 runs a game and win off of strong pitching.  But on a day when that’s not enough, this offense doesn’t look like the kind that can get you 7 runs.  Perhaps there won’t be many days like that.  But if there are, then this team is in trouble.

The good news in Tampa, is that this pitching staff is among the best in baseball.  David Price was the AL Cy Young Award Winner last year and he led this team with 20 Wins and a 2.56 ERA.  He struck out 205 in 211 IP.  He was the epitome of an ace, which is likely why he won the Cy Young.  However one of his teammates was able to out pitch him in 2 major pitching categories.  James Shields actually logged more innings and led the team with 223 Ks.  He also had a 15-10 record to go with a 3.52 ERA.  He was an ace as well, but was dealt to the Kansas City Royals this offseason for super prospect Wil Myers.  Myers is an immediate upgrade in left field for the Rays, but won’t join the team until at least June, so the financially strapped Rays can keep his arbitration clock in check.  With Shields gone, the new number 2 man in town is Matt Moore, who was another highly touted prospect, one of the many highly touted pitching prospects in this organization.  In his first full season he went 11-11 with a 3.81 ERA.  He struck out 175 in 177 IP, but walked too many guys resulting in a 1.35 WHIP.  However his BAA was strong at 238.  So if he can cut down on the walks, we should see his ERA drop closer to 3 and his win total increase into the area of about 15.  He’s future star with great strikeout potential.  The number 4 starter last year was former rookie of the year Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson was 10-11 with a great 3.10 ERA.  With an ERA like that, you wonder how Hellickson could have lost 11 games.  However, you also begin to wonder about that 3.10 ERA when you see that his 1.25 WHIP and 244 BAA was very AVG.  While that ERA will likely be higher, we should see his Loss total drop and the Wins could go up.  I’m thinking 12 Wins with a 3.50 ERA and only about 7 Losses.  With Hellickson becoming a number 3 starter young Alex Cobb has become the new number 4 man.  The Rays seem to have an endless number of future Cy Young winners coming through their system.  And while Alex Cobb doesn’t project like a David Price, he has tremendous potential and should be a part of this rotation for years to come.  He was 11-9 in 23 starts last season with a 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 254 BAA.  In his first taste of big league action, he was a very average pitcher.  With more experience he should only get better as his ERA moves closer to 3.50 and his Ks climb closer to 150.  Think double digit wins again this year.  And the last spot in this rotation goes to Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona.  He was injured for most of last season, starting only 3 games and turning in a 7.53 ERA.  In his last full season he struggled going 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA.  His WHIP was through the roof and his BAA was 276.  He can’t seem to find his way back to his former All Star self.  The Rays took a gamble here, but it’s low risk.  If it works, they have a veteran presence to eat innings at the back of their rotation.  If it doesn’t, then they can turn to one of the many potential stars in their minor league system.  This bullpen is made up of a number of solid arms, starting with the Rolaids Relief winner Fernando Rodney.  Rodney’s season came out of nowhere for the Rays last season.  Rodney had 48 Saves and an all time record 0.60 ERA.  He struck out 76 in 74 IP, had a 0.78 WHIP and 167 BAA.  He was purely unhittable.  The question is, can he do it again?  No one is sure since this season came out of nowhere.  But he throws gas, and is the same pitcher this year that he was last year.  He likely won’t be as dominant.  But I think he’ll have another strong season closing games.  In addition to Rodney, the Rays have Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth in the back of the bullpen to set up and be emergency Save options.  The rest of the pitchers aren’t as noteworthy, but they are young and will hopefully gain some valuable experience supporting a great starting rotation and strong back of the bullpen.  Pitching wins championships, and that’s the mantra the Rays have put into place to win this season.

2013 Prediction:

The Rays are a very similar team this year, to last year.  While they lost James Shields, they still have a fantastic group of starters and some strong bullpen pieces.  And they got back a very talented young outfielder, who could give the Rays a third All Star in their talented outfield.  They took some shots on 3 different infielders.  While it could work out, it likely won’t hurt them if it doesn’t work out.  Essentially this team is at least as good as last year’s group, with a shot to be better.  I think they are playoff caliber, even if they don’t win the division.  I’m picking them to finish second in the division, but definitely play some October baseball.