Well it’s that time. The
All Star Game has come and gone and I am breaking down my last team. I started with the AL West, before knocking
out the whole National League. I then
moved back to the AL East and into the AL Central. And while I ranked teams alphabetically last
year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings, the last
AL Central (and last overall) team I’ll look at will be the Minnesota Twins.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Joe Mauer
1B- Justin Morneau
2B- Jamey Carroll
SS- Pedro
Florimon
3B- Eduardo
Escobar
LF- Josh
Willingham
CF- Aaron Hicks
RF- Chris Parmelee
DH- Ryan Doumit
Starting Rotation: Vane
Worley, Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno
Bullpen: Glenn
Perkins, Brian Duensing, Jarred Burton, Casey Fein, Josh Roenicke, Ryan
Pressly, Anthony Swarzak
Projected Batting Order
CF- Aaron Hicks
2B- Jamey Carroll
C- Joe Mauer
1B- Justin Morneau
LF- Josh
Willingham
DH- Ryan Doumit
RF- Chris Parmelee
3B- Eduardo
Escobar
SS- Pedro
Florimon
The Twins are in the unenviable position of being the worst
team in the worst division in baseball.
That being said, they are not the worst team overall. They are better than at least 2 other teams
(Marlins, Astros) and are arguably better than a few more (Cubs, Mets,
Padres). But this team is clearly
re-building. They are a mid-market team
with limited finances. However a lot of
their money is tied up in 2 players: Mauer
and Morneau. With both healthy, this
team is a challenge. But at this point
they are about the only hitters you worry about (though Josh Willingham has
been good and better in Minnesota than just about anywhere else in his
career). They at least know their role
as they are re-building with a lot of youngsters in the starting lineup and
some young pitchers as well. They have
some other castoffs in the lineup as placeholders, but this team is really just
focused on getting their young guys some playing time. The expectations aren’t high, and that’s
good. Because this team doesn’t look
ready to contend this year, or in the near future
This team was not the most frightening to behold at the
plate last year. The leading hitter was,
unsurprisingly, Joe Mauer who hit 319.
Mauer has long been among the best pure hitters in the game. However he’s not the all-around offensive
threat that Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout are.
Mauer is a great hitter, however one with limited power. Target Field is another limiting factor in
the power categories. He hit 10 HR last
year, but still drove in 85 while scoring another 81 himself. He’s the best offensive piece the Twins have
and has played well into this season, scoring another All Star appearance. The next best hitter from last year (besides
the departed Ben Revere and Denard Span) was Mauer’s backup, Ryan Doumit. But Doumit plays more than the average back
up with Mauer playing at least once a week as a DH and spending time at first
base. Doumit approached 500 ABs last
year in 134 games mainly catching but also taking his turn as the DH. He hit 275 with 18 HR and 75 RBI. Though both Doumit and Mauer are catchers,
manager Ron Gardenhire gets them both into as many games as he can as they are
among his best hitters. The other big
name for this offense is former MVP Justin Morneau who finally returned from
concussion issues in 2012 to play in 134 games.
He wasn’t quite his old self hitting only 267, but he still popped 19 HR
to go with 77 RBI. His best years may be
behind him, but he’s still a solid player.
However his 19 HR were only third on this team. The leader was Josh Willingham who has been
reborn in the Twin Cities. Willingham
hit 260 last year, but led the Twins with 35 HR and 110 RBI. He did all that in the pitcher friendly
Target Field. He has transformed from a
4th outfielder to a must play with tremendous power in his last
years in Oakland to his years in Minnesota.
He offers little else but power, but he’s prodigious with the home run
ball. I think expecting a repeat of
those numbers would be a mistake, but he continues to outperform expectations,
so 25+ HR is my new expectation. I
mentioned that Morneau was only third on this team in HR. Willingham was first. The number 2 man was Trevor Plouffe. His 24 HR was a nice accomplishment, but it
came with a 235 AVG and only 55 RBI.
He’s pulled that AVG up some this year, though his HR totals are
lower. But the Twins will happily take
somewhere in the middle, as it will better serve the team. The rest of this offense looks grim, as the
guys above are far from perfect. Jamey Carrol
played a ton for Minnesota last year hitting 268 with no power or speed. The veteran expects to do more of the same
again this year for the Twins. The rest
of this team has little experience with 64 games from right fielder Chris
Parmelee last year being the tops among what’s left. Those 64 games were unremarkable. The Twins hope that the likes of Aaron
Hicks, Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon will bloom into major league hitters,
but expect to take a few bumps along the way.
And they certainly are. This team
is currently last in the standings and the offense is a big reason why. There are a few talented players on this
team, but all are getting older and none of them are very complete
hitters. The future for this team,
unfortunately, is the players who are struggling at the bottom of the
lineup. But the Twins have a good farm
system and hop getting those guys some experience will help the team improve
overall for the future.
As much as the offense was a disappointment, the pitching
staff might be worse. Scott Diamond led
the team with 12 Wins and a 3.54 ERA last year.
Francisco Liriano’s 109 Ks were another team high. None of those numbers are good enough to lead
a team. And this is where the Twins
expect to see the most struggles. Diamond
is back with the rotation after his 12-9 showing with a 3.54 ERA. Those numbers are fine. He did that in 27 starts turning in a WHIP
right around the league average. However
his 274 BAA was way too high. He doesn’t
walk guys and hurt himself, but he’s not a power pitcher who may see some
regression if he can’t figure out how to stop opposing hitters from reaching
base via the hit. He’s one of the few
holdovers from last year’s staff to this year.
Samuel Deduno is the only other one and he was not as great, though
Diamond was hardly an ace. Deduno was
6-5 in 15 starts with a 4.44 ERA. 5th
starter numbers as he walks too many guys with a sky high WHIP and league
average BAA. Those guys are expected to
help eat innings and keep the team in games, and they both have done that this
year, with Deduno actually posting far superior numbers to the struggling
Diamond. The rest of the staff is
new. Mike Pelfrey was signed after a
year lost to injury with the Mets. He
looked good through is first 3 starts in 2012, but the injury derailed him. It may have effected him more than he
realizes as he’s struggled in Minnesota this year going 4-7 with a 5.40
ERA. Target Field isn’t that much better
of a hitters park than Citi Field, but the move to the AL always hurts NL guys,
not to mention the cold. The Opening Day
starter was Vance Worley who went 6-9 in Minnesota with a 4.20 last year. He headed to Minnesota in the offseason for
Ben Revere and fell apart. He was 1-5
with a 7.21 before being demoted to Triple A.
The struggles are for real with this youngster and he was replaced by
Kevin Correa in the rotation. Not
exactly a world beater himself, Correa was 12-11 with a 4.21 in Pittsburgh last
year and has pitched similarly in the Twin Cities with a 7-6 record and 4.19
ERA this year. He’s an innings eater who
can keep you in games. That’s the
starting staff. It’s not very good. It’s got some old guys and some struggling
guys. It lacks youth and success. That’s going to be the biggest hurdle in
Minnesota this year. The bullpen isn’t
too bad with All Star Glenn Perkins anchoring the group as a closer. He has gone 23 for 25 this year with a 1.72
after going 16 for 20 last year with a 2.56.
The rest of the bullpen is unremarkable, but not overly bad or
good. Casey Fien’s 2.88 ERA the best
amongst the rest as this team gets a lot of innings from the bullpen, making up
for the struggles with the starting rotation.
This Twins team is in full re-building mode. They have a lot of youngsters already
starting in the field for them. The few
veterans they have may be hitting the market and we could see Morneau,
Willingham and Doumit move to new teams at the trade deadline. The only holdover will be local Joe Mauer, whose
contract is likely too big to move anyway.
This is a mid-market team with limited resources and a ton of money tied
up in a catcher. The re-build will take
a while. But their farm system features
some talent, including Brian Buxton who was drafted last year. If they can continue to season their offense
and see some young pitchers make the jump, they have a shot at contending
again. But that’s very far down the line
as the present and near future look bleak for the Twins.
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