Monday, July 22, 2013

Minnesota Twins 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  The All Star Game has come and gone and I am breaking down my last team.  I started with the AL West, before knocking out the whole National League.  I then moved back to the AL East and into the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last AL Central (and last overall) team I’ll look at will be the Minnesota Twins.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Joe Mauer
1B-      Justin Morneau
2B-      Jamey Carroll
SS-      Pedro Florimon
3B-      Eduardo Escobar
LF-      Josh Willingham
CF-      Aaron Hicks
RF-      Chris Parmelee
DH-     Ryan Doumit

Starting Rotation:      Vane Worley, Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno

Bullpen:          Glenn Perkins, Brian Duensing, Jarred Burton, Casey Fein, Josh Roenicke, Ryan Pressly, Anthony Swarzak

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Aaron Hicks
2B-      Jamey Carroll
C-        Joe Mauer
1B-      Justin Morneau
LF-      Josh Willingham
DH-     Ryan Doumit
RF-      Chris Parmelee
3B-      Eduardo Escobar
SS-      Pedro Florimon

The Twins are in the unenviable position of being the worst team in the worst division in baseball.  That being said, they are not the worst team overall.  They are better than at least 2 other teams (Marlins, Astros) and are arguably better than a few more (Cubs, Mets, Padres).  But this team is clearly re-building.  They are a mid-market team with limited finances.  However a lot of their money is tied up in 2 players:  Mauer and Morneau.  With both healthy, this team is a challenge.  But at this point they are about the only hitters you worry about (though Josh Willingham has been good and better in Minnesota than just about anywhere else in his career).  They at least know their role as they are re-building with a lot of youngsters in the starting lineup and some young pitchers as well.  They have some other castoffs in the lineup as placeholders, but this team is really just focused on getting their young guys some playing time.  The expectations aren’t high, and that’s good.  Because this team doesn’t look ready to contend this year, or in the near future

This team was not the most frightening to behold at the plate last year.  The leading hitter was, unsurprisingly, Joe Mauer who hit 319.  Mauer has long been among the best pure hitters in the game.  However he’s not the all-around offensive threat that Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout are.  Mauer is a great hitter, however one with limited power.  Target Field is another limiting factor in the power categories.  He hit 10 HR last year, but still drove in 85 while scoring another 81 himself.  He’s the best offensive piece the Twins have and has played well into this season, scoring another All Star appearance.  The next best hitter from last year (besides the departed Ben Revere and Denard Span) was Mauer’s backup, Ryan Doumit.  But Doumit plays more than the average back up with Mauer playing at least once a week as a DH and spending time at first base.  Doumit approached 500 ABs last year in 134 games mainly catching but also taking his turn as the DH.  He hit 275 with 18 HR and 75 RBI.  Though both Doumit and Mauer are catchers, manager Ron Gardenhire gets them both into as many games as he can as they are among his best hitters.  The other big name for this offense is former MVP Justin Morneau who finally returned from concussion issues in 2012 to play in 134 games.  He wasn’t quite his old self hitting only 267, but he still popped 19 HR to go with 77 RBI.  His best years may be behind him, but he’s still a solid player.  However his 19 HR were only third on this team.  The leader was Josh Willingham who has been reborn in the Twin Cities.  Willingham hit 260 last year, but led the Twins with 35 HR and 110 RBI.  He did all that in the pitcher friendly Target Field.  He has transformed from a 4th outfielder to a must play with tremendous power in his last years in Oakland to his years in Minnesota.  He offers little else but power, but he’s prodigious with the home run ball.  I think expecting a repeat of those numbers would be a mistake, but he continues to outperform expectations, so 25+ HR is my new expectation.  I mentioned that Morneau was only third on this team in HR.  Willingham was first.  The number 2 man was Trevor Plouffe.  His 24 HR was a nice accomplishment, but it came with a 235 AVG and only 55 RBI.  He’s pulled that AVG up some this year, though his HR totals are lower.  But the Twins will happily take somewhere in the middle, as it will better serve the team.  The rest of this offense looks grim, as the guys above are far from perfect.  Jamey Carrol played a ton for Minnesota last year hitting 268 with no power or speed.  The veteran expects to do more of the same again this year for the Twins.   The rest of this team has little experience with 64 games from right fielder Chris Parmelee last year being the tops among what’s left.  Those 64 games were unremarkable.   The Twins hope that the likes of Aaron Hicks, Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon will bloom into major league hitters, but expect to take a few bumps along the way.  And they certainly are.  This team is currently last in the standings and the offense is a big reason why.  There are a few talented players on this team, but all are getting older and none of them are very complete hitters.  The future for this team, unfortunately, is the players who are struggling at the bottom of the lineup.  But the Twins have a good farm system and hop getting those guys some experience will help the team improve overall for the future.

As much as the offense was a disappointment, the pitching staff might be worse.  Scott Diamond led the team with 12 Wins and a 3.54 ERA last year.  Francisco Liriano’s 109 Ks were another team high.  None of those numbers are good enough to lead a team.  And this is where the Twins expect to see the most struggles.  Diamond is back with the rotation after his 12-9 showing with a 3.54 ERA.  Those numbers are fine.  He did that in 27 starts turning in a WHIP right around the league average.  However his 274 BAA was way too high.  He doesn’t walk guys and hurt himself, but he’s not a power pitcher who may see some regression if he can’t figure out how to stop opposing hitters from reaching base via the hit.  He’s one of the few holdovers from last year’s staff to this year.  Samuel Deduno is the only other one and he was not as great, though Diamond was hardly an ace.  Deduno was 6-5 in 15 starts with a 4.44 ERA.  5th starter numbers as he walks too many guys with a sky high WHIP and league average BAA.  Those guys are expected to help eat innings and keep the team in games, and they both have done that this year, with Deduno actually posting far superior numbers to the struggling Diamond.  The rest of the staff is new.  Mike Pelfrey was signed after a year lost to injury with the Mets.  He looked good through is first 3 starts in 2012, but the injury derailed him.  It may have effected him more than he realizes as he’s struggled in Minnesota this year going 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA.  Target Field isn’t that much better of a hitters park than Citi Field, but the move to the AL always hurts NL guys, not to mention the cold.  The Opening Day starter was Vance Worley who went 6-9 in Minnesota with a 4.20 last year.  He headed to Minnesota in the offseason for Ben Revere and fell apart.  He was 1-5 with a 7.21 before being demoted to Triple A.  The struggles are for real with this youngster and he was replaced by Kevin Correa in the rotation.  Not exactly a world beater himself, Correa was 12-11 with a 4.21 in Pittsburgh last year and has pitched similarly in the Twin Cities with a 7-6 record and 4.19 ERA this year.  He’s an innings eater who can keep you in games.  That’s the starting staff.  It’s not very good.  It’s got some old guys and some struggling guys.  It lacks youth and success.  That’s going to be the biggest hurdle in Minnesota this year.  The bullpen isn’t too bad with All Star Glenn Perkins anchoring the group as a closer.  He has gone 23 for 25 this year with a 1.72 after going 16 for 20 last year with a 2.56.  The rest of the bullpen is unremarkable, but not overly bad or good.  Casey Fien’s 2.88 ERA the best amongst the rest as this team gets a lot of innings from the bullpen, making up for the struggles with the starting rotation.

This Twins team is in full re-building mode.  They have a lot of youngsters already starting in the field for them.  The few veterans they have may be hitting the market and we could see Morneau, Willingham and Doumit move to new teams at the trade deadline.  The only holdover will be local Joe Mauer, whose contract is likely too big to move anyway.  This is a mid-market team with limited resources and a ton of money tied up in a catcher.  The re-build will take a while.  But their farm system features some talent, including Brian Buxton who was drafted last year.  If they can continue to season their offense and see some young pitchers make the jump, they have a shot at contending again.  But that’s very far down the line as the present and near future look bleak for the Twins.

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