Well it’s that time. We
are almost to the All Star break, and I can see the light at the end of the
tunnel as I finish up my last 3 team breakdowns. I started with the AL West before changing
tacks and doing the NL. I then moved
back to knock out the AL East and am now on the AL Central. And while I ranked teams alphabetically last
year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using those final standings, the third AL
Central team I’ll look at will be the Kansas City Royals.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Salvador
Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Chris Getz
SS- Alcides
Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Jeff Francoeur
DH- Billy Butler
Starting Rotation: James
Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, Luis Mendoza
Bullpen: Greg
Holland, Kelvin Hererra, Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins,
Louis Coleman, J.C. Guitierrez
Projected Batting Order
LF- Alex Gordon
SS- Alcides
Escobar
1B- Eric Hosmer
DH- Billy Butler
3B- Mike Moustakas
C- Salvador
Perez
RF- Jeff Francouer
2B- Chris Getz
CF- Lorenzo Cain
After over a decade of struggling and encouraging their fans
to be patient, the Royals decided that this was the year. GM Drayton Moore, some say trading for his
job, decided that this group of hitters was ready to compete now. And with no immediate upgrades to the
starting group available in his rotation, he mortgaged the future for success
right now. He traded talented prospect
Wil Myers to the Rays in exchange for an ace in the form of James Shields, big
game James as he’s called occasionally.
He also got Wade Davis back from Tampa in that trade to join Ervin
Santana, formerly of the Angels as back of the rotation veteran arms. They joined Jeremy Guthrie and Shields and
enabled Moore to move his two best starters from last season, Bruce Chen and
Luke Hochevar, to the bullpen to get them to closer Greg Holland. He hopes all this depth will give him enough
pitching to support what he believes will be a stout offense. He sees that the division is weak and thinks
that this is the time for the Royals to make a move. Despite the Tigers sitting at the top of this
division the past few years, the Royals think they can at least make a run at
the wildcard, beating up on the Twins and White Sox and hoping they are better
than the Indians. If this works, Drayton
Moore will be viewed as a genius. If
not, then he’ll likely be looking for a new job, which was a real possibility
for him even if he just met the status quo.
Last year’s Royals squad was better, but still not good
enough. It was frustrating for fans,
because they saw all these great young hitters and thought this was what they
were waiting for. But K.C. was still
nowhere near the playoffs in 2012.
However that wasn’t the offense’s fault.
Veteran Billy Butler, the blue-collar local hero of the Kansas City, led
the team offensively. The DH won the
team Triple Crown with the best AVG (313), most HR (29) and RBI (107). He’s a great hitter, with a 373 OBP, 510 SLG
and 882 OPS. He doesn’t play in the
field, but at the plate he is a complete hitter. Behind the plate, Salvador Perez was a
pleasant find. He hit 302 in 76 games
with 11 HR and 39 RBI. They think he can
slug 25 in a full season, and 2013 is his first chance to see full season
action. The most complete hitter on this
team is recently named All Star, Alex Gordon.
He does a little bit of everything in the leadoff spot. He hit 294 last year with 14 HR, 72 RBI, 93 R
and 10 SB. His job is to get on and
score runs, which he did well as evidenced by his 93 R and 368 OBP. He also brings some pop and speed to the
table, not to mention Gold Glove caliber defense in left field. Right behind him on the AVG list and in the
batting order was shortstop Alcides Escobar. Escobar was part of the Greinke
return, and really put together his best season yet in K.C. Mainly batting out of the 2 hole, he hit 293
with 5 HR, 52 RBI, 68 R and a whopping 35 SB.
That speed was great, as was his defense. The Royals think they have quite a find in
him. So with the 1st, 2nd,
4th and 6th hitters playing well offensively, you have to
wonder what went wrong in this order. The
issues, as you might have guessed, came from the 3rd and 5th
spots in the order, or Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, respectively. Two of the youngest, and most highly touted
prospects in this organization, Hosmer and Moustakas looked good in their
rookie seasons. Of the two, Hosmer
looked better. But he struggled the most
last year with a 232 AVG. He was able to
crack 14 HR and drive in 60. That was
okay, but not for a number 3 hitter. The
AVG was partly to blame. The only thing
he did well was steal 16 bags and play good defense. That’s not what they brought him up to
do. They wanted him to hit 3rd,
a premier spot in their lineup. His
rookie season had so much promise. They
desperately need him to bounce back in 2013.
And while he started just as cold, he’s heated up recently, and if the
Royals are going to make any noise this season then Hosmer will be a major
reason. Moustakas was also highly
touted, but didn’t impress quite as much in his rookie year. But don’t feel bad, he also didn’t struggle
quite as much last year. However he
still didn’t play the way they thought he would. He hit 242 with 20 HR, 73 RBI, 69 R and 5
SB. The power was nice, but they thought
that AVG should have been much higher.
With 20 HR it was still a good year, but they’d love to see more from
him. His struggles have intensified this
year as he’s still not playing well, and doesn’t even have the prodigious power
to fall back on. They hope he can turn
it on. Moving to the outfield, you will
find center fielder, Lorenzo Cain. Cain
is an exciting player with great wheels and a great glove. But being unable to steal first has limited
his game thus far. He was okay last year
with a 266/7/31/37/10 line, but is a bottom of the lineup bat at this point in
his career, which limits his RBI and R potential. He’ll likely hit 9th a lot. The plan before the season was to have right
fielder Jeff Francoeur hit 7th and Chris Getz man second base and hit
8th. But Getz has only
appeared in 47 subpar games before an injury took him away and Francoeur played
poorly enough to end up being released last week. So the Royals adapted. Getz is being replaced by a combo of Johnny
Giovatella and Elliot Johnson. None of
the three players does much at the plate, so it’s not a big loss. But the Royals are disappointed with the way
Francoeur struggled. He’s only 2 years
removed from a 20/20 campaign, is one of the few veterans on the team and still
has the best outfield arm in the game.
They wanted it to work out, but it just didn’t. Hitting 203 with only 2 HR will not help you
keep many jobs in baseball. David Lough
and Jarrod Dyson will both step in to fill his shoes out in right. And that’s the Royals offense. Some strong pieces. A lot of potential. But not as much production as they need, some
obvious holes and a serious lack of experience.
This offense has stagnated with a number of hitters fighting through
early season struggles. There also seems
to be no depth or bottom of the lineup pop.
The offense is good enough, but not great and very limited.
That means the Royals really need their pitching to step
up. And that was the area GM Drayton
Moore addressed this offseason. Only 1
of the 3 pitching leaders from last year’s team is back in the rotation this
season. Bruce Chen and his team leading
11 Wins are in the bullpen. Luke
Hochevar’s 144 Ks have joined him. Only
Luis Mendoza and his team best 4.23 ERA warranted a rotation slot, albeit the
number 5 spot. And he’s pitched like a
number 5 this year, going 2-3 with a 4.87.
He’s not a great arm with limited strikeout potential who puts too many
guys on base. But that’s why he’s the 5th starter. And Chen and Hochevar are now spot starters
and long arms in the bullpen. That should be good for both of them. The new ace of the staff is James Shields,
who came over with Wade Davis from Tampa Bay for highly touted prospect Wil
Myers. So far, the Royals area pleased
with their investment, though his lack of run support is almost criminal. Last year Shields was 15-10 with a 3.52 ERA
in an astounding 227 IP. He struck out
223 in that time. The year before was
even better at 16-12 with a 2.82. He’s
only 4-6 so far this year, but halfway through the season he’s already got 129
IP and 112 Ks. He’s pitching to a 3.12
ERA. He puts too many men on base, but
is well on his way to another 220 IP/200 K season where he leads a staff. No other pitcher jumps out as a number 2 man,
though the next 3 guys on the staff are all better than number 4 starters. So let’s call them all number 3 men. The first of those guys is Jeremy Guthrie,
who hasn’t played as well this year as the Royals hoped. He’s 8-6, but his 4.12
ERA is higher than they would have liked.
So is his WHIP and BAA. He was
great in 14 starts for K.C. last year with a 3.16 ERA. If he can find his way back to being that
pitcher than this team has a much better shot of getting into the playoff
hunt. If not, then they’ll continue to
sit just outside the race. On the other
side of things, Ervin Santana has pitched much better than anyone could have
expected. Perhaps the biggest question
mark of the offseason acquisitions, Santana has been great. His 5-5 record is unfair as his 2.90 ERA has
been nothing short of brilliant. He’s
struck out 94 in 118 IP, pitching to a 1.05 WHIP while holding hitters to a 226
BAA. If the Royals do make it to
October, he’ll be a major reason why.
The last starter on this team is big Wade Davis, who has probably struggled
the most of all. A back-end starter in
Tampa, Davis was the forgotten piece in the Shields deal. However he was still good enough to pitch in
the K.C. rotation, banishing the other starters to the bullpen. But 18 starts in, Davis is 4-8 with a 5.89. Ouch.
I guess not much was expected, but you have to think Hochevar or Chen
would be better. He’s out on paternity
leave right now, so maybe one of them will get a chance to send him to the
bullpen. However right now the Royals
bullpen is playing very well, so maybe you don’t want to mess with it. Hochevar and Chen are both pitching with sub
2.50 ERAs while closer Greg Holland has 22 Saves with a 1.80 ERA. Add in former All Star Aaron Crow, and that
may be the best part of this team. And
with the offense and starters struggling and inconsistent, it will have to be
as good in the second half of the season as it was in the first half. A daunting proposition, as they were so good
before the All Star break.
This Royals team is, once again, VERY close to
contention. They have a talented core of
hitters. They have a strong
bullpen. They have a few good starters. But perhaps they aren’t quite there yet. The offense is talented, but young,
inexperienced and prone to streakiness.
The pitching staff has some good pieces, but perhaps lacking a strong
number 2 and some starting depth. They
are once again so close that it hurts.
But they are not, in my opinion, a playoff team yet. This will cause a lot of fans to call for the
GM’s head, but I think that’s a mistake.
He did trade away a future talent for a current stud, but that stud is
playing well. And this team would not be
as close as it is to contention if not for Shields’ presence. This team got an ace in that deal, one of the
rarest commodities in baseball. And
while they would love to see Myers in their outfield, they can deal with the
guys they have there. Missing Shields
would leave their pitching staff lightyears behind where it currently
sits. The Royals could still make the
playoffs this year. Or they may
not. Moore could lose his job. Or he could keep it. But no matter what happens, he brought this
team very close to contention. If he’s
around the next few years, he’ll reap the benefits. If someone else is, then someone else will
reap the benefits of Moore’s work. But
all that is secondary. The takeaway is
this….almost there Royals fans. Just a
little more patience, if you’ve got any left.
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