Dodgers
Re-Create 2007 All Star Team
Well the Dodgers and Red Sox have made some headlines
(though I personally think mine is the cleverest). They’ve easily claimed the title for most exciting post
deadline trade ever, and possibly most exciting regular trade ever. There have been some big deals in the
past, but generally the names passed over from one team are relative unknowns
at the time and blossom into stars.
That’s what makes them noteworthy.
This trade has that, but also the elements of a fire sale and a slew of
huge names changing jerseys. In
addition, it involves the most money changing hands in the history of the game
as the Dodgers help the Red Sox relieve themselves of $262.5 million dollars. Let’s take a look at the trade from the
perspective of both teams.
Los Angeles
Dodgers
They get: Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Josh
Beckett SP
Carl
Crawford LF
Nick
Punto UTIL
They lose: James Loney 1B
Rubby De La Rosa SP
Jerry
Sands 1B
Ivan
DeJesus INF
Allen
Webster SP
This is a big trade for the Dodgers. They get players who are expected to
provide an immediate impact. It’s
amazing to look at this team now, especially when you consider that a year ago
they were bankrupt. But a
new ownership group brought a new attitude. And these owners are doing their best Steinbrenner
impressions, over-spending for players who may or may not be worth it. The difference is that it seems to be
working out for them so far.
Hanley Ramirez, acquired before the first trade deadline, is a perfect
example. However the most
impressive part of this team has to be the endless pile of money they seem to
be sitting on. After spending $2
billion just to BUY the team, these owners still have the financial capability
to bring on $262.5 million in salary from this trade alone (not to mention the
money owed to stars Kershaw, Kemp Ethier and new Dodgers Hanley Ramirez and
Shane Victorino). I guess that’s
what comes with purchasing a keystone franchise with a tremendous television
deal set to go through. The
Dodgers are apparent practitioners of the “you have to spend money to make
money” approach to baseball, and there’s something to be said for that. But there is also a ton of risk. What if people don’t come see the
team? What if injuries wreck
seasons? What if these guys aren’t
as good as they are getting paid?
That last question is the stickiest, because a lot of these guys were
considered overpaid when they were performing at their peaks. And it’s not like this club is bringing
over a bunch of All Stars from this year.
The players they have brought in have struggled recently. That’s how they were able to land
them. Hanley has played well, and
Gonzalez had a great debut, but seeing these players go south isn’t completely
out of the question. And if
Crawford continues to struggle, Beckett is done and Gonzalez doesn’t find his
inner Padre but rather plays like his former Red Sox self, then this will be an
un-mitigated disaster. However
rarely are things that black and white.
If a World Series comes to Hollywoodland, then this will be considered a
success. But we will likely be
debating the result of this trade for years.
The initial trade breakdown is positive for Los Angeles. Adrian Gonzalez was the player they
wanted in this swap, and he immediately upgrades first base. Loney didn’t protect Kemp and Ethier
nearly enough and the lack of power coming from first base has been a
conversation starter in LA for the past few years. In Gonzalez, they have someone capable of
320-35-120-100. He also brings
Gold Glove caliber defense.
Speaking of Gold Glove defense, that’s one of the few things, you can
expect Carl Crawford to deliver. His
defense will be stellar in left field.
Here’s the kicker, he won’t be a Dodger until next season. His Tommy John surgery keeps him out of
the 2012 season and possibly part of 2013. He will take the place of Shane Victorino who will be a free
agent after this year. But after
Crawford’s defense, things get murky. His offensive production took a nosedive last season, his
first in Boston. After being a
perennial stud in Tampa, injuries and ineffectiveness crippled him. His contract was considered excessive
with the expectation for him to play the way he used to. But with his struggles, he was really
pressing. Perhaps a change of
scenery will do him some good. The
Dodgers hope so, because otherwise his contract will be the albatross that
shall spell the doom of this trade.
And impending doom also comes to mind when you consider the Josh Beckett
portion of this deal. Beckett is a
former All Star, but has really struggled the last few years. His personal demeanor has long been
considered pompous and unpleasant, but it was okay when he was winning. However Boston didn’t want him to
continue poisoning their young pitchers while failing to deliver on the field. He was the second pill the Dodgers had
to swallow (after Crawford’s contract) in order to earn Adrian Gonzalez. If Beckett has some gas left in the
tank, then he can be a valuable piece of this rotation. If he returns to All Star form, then
this club has to be considered NL West title favorites next year, and this
year. But even if he’s just okay,
he will be a boon to the back of this rotation. That’s a very real possibility. But is he worth the money they will pay him, and the potential
headaches he brings? Perhaps
moving to LA will help him mellow out and find his former success. The Dodgers sure hope so. There are a lot of pieces to this
trade. Gonzalez will likely be
good. MVP good? Who knows? He’s got the potential. Beckett will be better than he was in Boston, even if it’s
just for a short while. Moving
from the best hitting division in baseball to the worst will have that
effect. I don’t see him returning
to the Cy Young discussion, but a trip to the mid-summer classic is the high
end of expectations. A dependable
innings eater is likely what we will see.
Crawford is a total wildcard.
Neither Crawford nor Beckett is worth the money they will earn. However Gonzalez is a bargain. The second best player in this deal is
possibly the overlooked Nick Punto, who takes over for the injured Jerry Hairston
Jr. as the dependable bench bat who can play a lot of positions. He’s going to help manager Don
Mattingly a lot. For the time
being, the Dodgers have a potent lineup and a plan for next season’s outfield
in place. That’s worth something,
just not $262.5 million. They win
the World Series, we have a good trade.
They miss the playoffs the next two years, we have a disaster. I’m expecting something in the middle,
and that still leaves plenty of room for success…and failure.
Boston Red Sox
They get: James Loney 1B
Rubby De La Rosa SP
Jerry
Sands 1B
Ivan
DeJesus INF
Allen
Webster SP
They lose: Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Carl Crawford LF
Josh Beckett SP
Nick Punto UTIL
As much as the Dodgers are taking a risk in this trade, the
risk factor for Boston is also pretty high. After spending a bunch of money in 2010 to build a team that
they thought would help them CONTINUE to contend, they are now letting that
idea go and instead are hoping to build around a new team that they hope will
help them contend IN THE FUTURE. 2
years and over $200 million later, this team has done a complete 180. You don’t imagine a team with the
second highest payroll in the game to be a candidate for a re-building project. But with the toxic nature this team had
created in Boston, and the equally toxic nature of Boston’s baseball media and
fan base the past two years, something had to be done. This team cost too much money to play
in the fashion that they did. Part
of the reason this team hasn’t been meshing is because of the poorly chosen offseason
managerial hire, Bobby Valentine.
Valentine certainly had some success in his days as the New York Mets
skipper. But his big mouth and
antics ended up earning him an invitation to manage in Japan when no other big
league clubs were interested. 5
years of managing in Japan and 2 years at ESPN followed before the Red Sox
decided to take a chance on the big name manager to help take the focus off the
firing of much beloved former manager, Terry Francona. Valentine has experience, but he’s no
threat to make the Hall of Fame as a manger. He is a headline maker, and that’s what he’s done this
season. The headlines haven’t been
positive however, as he took over one of the most talented teams in baseball
and led them to a 500 season thus far.
The locker room still belongs to Francona, and a much-publicized meeting
between the Red Sox ownership and players took place about their lack of faith
in Bobby V. In addition to that,
public clashes between Bobby and Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia dominated
early season headlines. They have
since traded Youkilis to the White Sox.
With Adrian Gonzalez apparently being the head of the group of players
complaining to ownership about the manager, Josh Beckett bumping heads with the
manager on more than one occasion, and Carl Crawford griping about playing
time, the Red Sox brass seems to be trading away Bobby’s enemies one at a time. If that’s their intention, this trade
has to be viewed as a complete mistake.
Not only is Gonzalez’s immense talent alone worth more than Valentine’s,
frankly, mediocre managing capabilities, but toss in Crawford’s potential and
Punto’s value off the bench, and this is one of the worst moves ever. No one can prove that the intention is to
help Valentine take back his clubhouse, but it seems like a lot of coincidence
to overlook. However, the support
of Bobby Valentine isn’t the only part of this trade. There were players coming and going and a lot of money
headed out the door. That’s the
bigger part of what has to be considered in this trade. And that’s what we’ll look at now.
For the Red Sox, the main part of this trade isn’t about the
players they received. It’s about
the money they saved. As I’ve
mentioned, the $262.5 million dollars in salary that the Dodgers took on from
Boston is the highest for any trade ever.
In that sense alone, this trade can be considered a success for
Boston. They had a bloated payroll
that hamstrung them in their attempts to make the club better. In addition, a large sum of the money
was going to players that weren’t performing to expectations (Dice K, John
Lackey, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford).
They lost two of those bloated contracts in this trade. In addition, they lost 3 players who
have been outspoken in their distaste for Bobby, whether it be because of
playing time (Crawford) or the way he manages the game overall (Gonzalez and
Beckett). When you include
Youkilis among those who were sent off after expressing their dislike for
Bobby, you really only have 3 players left who are publicly butting heads with
the manager. One of those players,
Dustin Pedroia, has recently shown support for Bobby. As the de facto clubhouse leader that means a lot. Now the only have to worry about
Ellsbury and Lester falling into line.
Speaking of Lester, they are hoping that he will improve with Beckett
and his self-important, juvenile attitude in Los Angeles. Lester can be the new mentor for the
young pitchers and hopefully they will all be better teammates. So from a monetary and clubhouse
perspective, this trade couldn’t be better. So now let’s look at the players the Sox received from
LA. Four of them are
prospects. The one who isn’t,
James Loney, has struggled this season.
After a hot start to his career, he’s started to slide the past few
years. He’s never developed the 25
HR power that the Dodgers were hoping.
He would consistently hit in the 275 region, but his AVG has slipped too
in recent years. His RBI totals
have dropped the most, and he has not been able to protect the heavy hitters in
LA. Maybe a change of scenery will
help, but at best Loney looks like a 270, 15, 70 player. That’s good if you can get your power
elsewhere and that’s something the Red Sox will have to consider as they go
forward. The other players they
got back are all still looking to prove themselves on a major league
level. De La Rosa has spent some
time in the majors and was the number 2 pitching prospect in the Dodgers
organization. Allen Webster is
also a highly touted pitcher with a live fastball, good control and a good
future projected. Sands and
DeJesus are mid level hitting prospects.
As far as the return, it doesn’t initially make up for what they sent
away. And even if De La Rosa and
Webster turn out to be great and Sands and DeJesus make it as major league
starters, we’d then be looking at something that’s close to equal at best. But the talent of Gonzalez and
potential of Crawford will be hard to make up with these prospects. So from a player aspect, the Dodgers
come out ahead, especially in the present.
So how do we finally come to a consensus on how the Red Sox
did in this trade? This was a huge
monetary success. A coup
even. They got some talented young
players back, but not tremendous haul for them to base an entire re-build around. And if you consider the idea that the Red Sox are whittling
down Valentine’s enemies, then you have to think this trade is a success. But if that is their goal, then I have
to consider that a mistake personally, as I’d rather build a team around solid
players, not an overrated manager who tends to run his mouth too much. The fact is, we won’t know how this
trade went for the Sox for a while.
They dumped a ton of money, which frees them up financially. That’s a success. They helped put their clubhouse back
together. Another success. However they may be supporting the
wrong side in this player vs. manger war.
We won’t know which is the winning side, though I’ve made my opinion
clear. In the end, we have to see
how the players they got back play and how the players they sent away
play. It doesn’t have to
necessarily equal out, as the salary dump makes them winners almost on it’s
own.
The fact is this is the biggest trade in the MLB in
years. We will be talking about it
for a long time. The future holds
the final assessment of this trade, but both sides feel like they are winners
today. And while I don’t know
about that yet, I know that both sides did something they needed to do and it
will help them tremendously.
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