Philadelphia Phillies
2014 Finish: 73-89
(Last in NL East)
Projected Batting
Order
CF Ben Revere
C Carlos Ruiz
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Domonic Brown
3B Cody
Asche/Mikel Franco
RF Jeff
Francouer/Darin Ruf
SS Freddy Galvis
Projected Starting Rotation/Closer
LHP Cole
Hamels
RHP Aaron
Harang
RHP Chad
Billingsley
RHP Jerome
Williams
RHP Sean
O’Sullivan
CLOSER Jonathan
Papelbon
The Phillies are in the midst of a re-build. But the last person to realize that was
apparently GM Ruben Amaro. So they are
probably two years behind where they need to be and still have a number of high
priced players who should have been traded away in recent years including Ryan
Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. Cliff Lee should also be gone, but continues
to fight injury, hurting his value. The
Phillies had a window to trade him when he was healthy 2 years ago, but held on
to him and have regretted it.
Philadelphia is a tough town for sports.
Philly fans are notoriously brutal and impatient and have earned their
reputation for being the worst fans in sports.
But in this instance, their ire is warranted. In the modern baseball landscape, you are
either going for it or re-building. The
Phillies have tried to straddle the line for too long, locking themselves into
a re-build that doesn’t look to have a quick turnaround time.
Offense/Defense:
Last year the Phillies hit 242 as a team, ranking 10th
out of 15 NL teams. They were also 10th
in hits and runs and 9th in HR.
That’s fairly consistent, but on the wrong end of the spectrum. This team is pretty much the same as last
year. They parted ways with Marlon Byrd,
a luxury they couldn’t afford or justify.
They also let Jimmy Rollins go via trade, a move that looks brilliant at
this point in the year. But they still
have Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the right side of the infield, making a lot
of money and blocking youngsters from a chance to play in the big leagues. Carlos Ruiz is still behind the plate. And their outfield still features a number of
guys with one or two skills, but generally not enough to be more than an
average outfielder in the major leagues (and that’s probably too
generous). The Phillies will send the
same squad out there this year, but Philly fans are hoping to see a much
different team take the field by the end of the year as they are practically
begging for the team to blow it all up and start over.
I think the Phillies best offensive piece is Ben
Revere. Revere tied with another NL East
center fielder last year to lead the league in hits (Denard Span), was third in
SB and 5th in batting average.
That’s very good. But he has
absolutely no power with only 22 extra base hits out of those 184. So he is a very limited player. He’s a career 291 hitter with a 325 OBP. But you know what you are getting with him,
and it’s singles and stolen bases. I
like him a lot this year and figured he’d be good for another year around 300
(305 in 2013, 306 in 2014) with 45+ SB (49 last year) but only about 75 R
(nobody decent to drive him in). While
he isn’t great, he’s likely their best player on the offensive side of the
ball. He is a better player than Philly
fans realize.
Frankly, the rest of the offense goes downhill from
him. Chase Utley can still be a good
hitter, though not what he used to be.
Last year he hit 270 with 11 HR, 78 RBI and 10 SB. The speed was a surprise. The rest was where I thought it would
be. For a second baseman, that’s very
good. For Utley, it’s a clear decline,
which is understandable since he’s 35 years old with a significant injury
history. I like Utley but think the
Phillies had no business re-signing him.
It was not an unfair deal, but they shouldn’t be spending money on a
veteran who won’t be around to help them win in the future. The more confusing part is that Utley wanted
to return to the Phillies. I figured
he’d be good for 265+ again with 10-12 HR, 65-70 RBI and maybe 5 SB. But he’s played terribly to start the year
and is currently on the DL. He’ll need a
very strong second half to reach those plateaus.
First baseman Ryan Howard is shockingly still around. After winning the Rookie of the Year and MVP
in back to back seasons, things looked bright for Howard. But pitchers adjusted to him, realizing the
big man had huge holes in his swing and Howard has not been able to
adjust. More importantly pitchers have
kept him from going yard. He’s been in a
heavy decline since 2012, and a slight one since 2008. That’s part of the reason almost everyone
derided his 5 year $125 million deal in 2011.
His AVG fell off a cliff in 2012 and outside of half a season of 266 in
2013, Howard has not reached 220 in a season.
He stayed healthy for 153 games last year and reached 23 HR, the first
time he surpassed 20 since 2011. His 95
RBI last year was also his highest total since 2011. He only hit 223, but a 23 HR/95 RBI guy has
value. The Phillies should have
aggressively pursued a trade in the offseason or at the trading deadline last
year when his value was the highest it’s been in 4 years. They didn’t, and now his market value has
returned to zero. He really is just a
guy who will run into 20 HR, hit for a terrible AVG, strike out a ton and can
no longer work a walk. Nobody wants
him. I thought he would struggle this
year, to the tune of 200 with 15 HR and maybe 60 RBI. He’s playing a little better, but not
much. And he will likely continue to eat
away at the Phillies funds and play bad baseball for them for the remainder of
his deal since he no longer has any trade value. This was the biggest mistake Amaro ever made,
and he continued to make mistakes with Howard again and again.
Carlos Ruiz is back behind the plate again. Ruiz has had a decent career with 3 good
years in 2010, 2011 and 2012, but a PED suspension in that time explaining away
the numbers. Outside of that, he’s been
a guy who hits around 250 with 6-8 HR and a good defensive reputation. Pitchers like throwing to him, which is why
he’s stuck around so long. But he’s 35
and doesn’t play like he used to. He
can work a walk, but is a below average offensive catcher at this point in his
career. I don’t think there’s a ton of
interest in him and he doesn’t make a lot of money so a trade doesn’t help
anyone very much. I bet he’ll finish his
career as a Phillie. Preseason, I liked
him for 240 with 5 HR and 35 RBI. That
seems to be a reasonable estimate at this point.
Domonic Brown is the only other name of note on this
offense. A long-time prospect, Brown
never seemed to do anything with his chances in the big leagues. But he slugged 27 HR and hit 272 in
2013. But the second half of that season
saw him struggle and last year he only hit 235 with 10 HR. He doesn’t make adjustments well and that has
crippled him in the big leagues. I think
another season of 240-245 is in the offing (career 246) with 12 HR and 65
RBI. A little better than last year, but
still not what the Philadelphia front office expects of him. With injuries limiting him to 19 games thus
far, those totals look like they may be out of reach.
Cody Asche is one of the few young Phillies on the starting
roster. He played in 121 games last year
hitting 251 with 10 HR. The year before
it was 50 games with 5 HR and a 235 AVG.
He may be a serviceable big leaguer, but not someone to get excited
about. He had to fight Mikel Franco to
win the starting job at third, but earned it to start the year. However, with the recent struggles of the
outfield, Asche has played a lot of left, letting Franco have time at
third. I liked him for another 250
season with 12 HR and 50 RBI. But an
injury has robbed him of some time. The
AVG looks to be on point, yet he will likely fall a little short of the HR/RBI
total, but only because of missed games.
Mikel Franco has gotten a chance to play in the big leagues
this year. He’s started hot hitting 297
with 10 HR and 34 RBI in 48 games. His
bat kept him in the majors even after Asche got healthy. Asche has been moved to left to keep both
bats in the lineup. He’s had some hype
around him coming through the minors, but no one realized he’d be this
good. That being said, he’s still very
young and will have to learn to make adjustments as pitchers adjust to
him. And that’s something that most
young players struggle with greatly.
The outfield is a mess.
I originally saw Domonic Brown in left, Revere in center and Darin Ruf
in right. But Ruf has struggled greatly
(227, 4 HR in 52 games). Early on in the
season, Revere played left (due to his defensive limitations in center) while
Obdell Hererra played center. Hererra
has been passable in his 75 games (264/3 HR/22 RBI/8 for 12 on the base paths)
and has earned playing time. Grady
Sizemore and Jeff Francouer have both played a lot of right field, more for
their defensive presence than their bats.
Sizemore was eventually released and signed with Tampa Bay. Francouer has played better than expected
with 5 HR and a 259 AVG. But in the end,
this defense features what is likely 1 proven everyday outfielder (Revere), 1
possible everyday outfielder (Hererra), and lots of question marks, which is
why Asche has moved from third base to be the everyday man in left field.
Freddy Galvis will man short, but I had little to no
expectations from him. His glove got him
the job, but outside of occasional pop, he’s done little else at the plate over
his career. I didn’t even bother making
predictions for him, thinking a young prospect may take his job away. That being said, he has played better than I
expected hitting 277 with 6 SB thus far.
That’s the offense.
There are lots of bats around on the bench in the forms of Brown, Ruf
and whoever isn’t playing out of the Francouer/Revere/Hererra trio. That’s a luxury, but none of those guys will
help the Phillies much now, or in the future.
I think it’s telling that Cody Asche, a young third baseman who hits
around 250 with 10 HR in a season, was moved out of position to get his bat in
the lineup. I can’t think of a more
average stat line, but it was still good enough to warrant moving him from
third base to left field to play everyday.
It sent Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf to the bench and ate into the
playing time of the rest of the outfield as Francoeur, Revere and Hererra now
share two positions. This offense will
struggle to score runs, and the near future doesn’t provide much relief.
The defense is also subpar in the city of brotherly
love. Howard is a butcher at first base
defensively. Utley has lost range at
second. Galvis is solid at short and
Mikel Franco is below average at third.
He looks like a future first baseman, but can’t play there until Howard
is out of the picture. Carlos Ruiz still
calls a good game and has a decent percentage on throwing out base runners, but
doesn’t frame pitches or block the plate as well as he used to. Cody Asche is the superior defensive third baseman,
but also the better athlete between him and Franco so he was tabbed to learn
left field. He may be good there
eventually, but not this year. Ben
Revere has great speed and that makes up for his deficiencies in the
outfield. He gets bad reads and takes
terrible routes to the ball. But his
speed helps his range be average to better, despite terrible instincts and a
limp arm. He’s better in left field.
Francoeur is a very solid right fielder, even if he’s lost a slight step. He still has the best arm in baseball. Obdell Hererra plays center and second fairly
solidly. He’d also be fine in left. Domonic Brown was a bad defensive outfielder. Darin Ruf was passable in either corner. There are lots of outfield options, but
really the best outfield defense of Revere in left, Hererra in center and
Francoeur in right doesn’t happen often for offensive reasons.
Pitching:
While the Phillies offense struggled last year, the pitching
was worse. Their team ERA of 3.79 was 12th
in the NL. They were 11th in
hits allowed, 14th in walks and 9th in Ks. Last season, the Phils had 7 different
pitchers make starts for them. 6 of them
were veterans who were either Phillies already, or were past their prime. Philadelphia did decide to save money in this
area as they let A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez walk in free
agency. They were planning to go with
Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jerome Williams, newly signed Aaron Harang and a
mixture of David Buchannan and Sean O’Sullivan for the last spot. But Lee is gone for the year and Williams has
already had health issues. So the
Phillies have had to turn to their farm system to fill out some of the spots
and the rest went to re-treads trying to come back from injury including Chad
Billingsley, Kevin Correia and Dustin McGowan.
It hasn’t worked as Philly has already used 11 different starters.
Needless to say, I didn’t make predictions for all 11
pitchers, as I didn’t know all would be starting. I knew Cliff Lee was gone for the year, so I
started with Cole Hamels. Hamels is
exceedingly talented and has the track record to prove it. He’s reached 200 IP 6 of the last 7 seasons,
reaching 193 IP the one season he was under 200. He’s also had an ERA under 3.10 4 of the last
5 seasons with the other season in that span being 3.60. But 2 of those 5 seasons saw ERAs under 2.80
with a career best 2.46 last season.
He’s struck out 200 hitters 3 of the last 5 years, with 190+ the other 2
years in that span. He is consistent and
experienced with a World Series MVP on his resume. And yet all the talk about Hamels has been
less on performance, and more on what it would take for Philly to trade
him. He has no business being on that
team. Ruben Amaro Jr. refuses to let him
go for anything other than an insane haul of talent and salary relief. But Amaro has a terrible reputation for over-valuing
his players and for that reason no one wants to trade with him. For the time being, Hamels is wasting away on
the Phillies throwing incredible innings and not getting any wins or run
support. I thought he’d have another
season of 200 IP, 180+ Ks and an ERA around 3.
He’s well on his way to those totals now. But with those great totals, I was expecting
a losing record and only about 8 Wins.
Hopefully he ends the season on another team. Otherwise he will continue to see his Win
total tank and Philly will overspend on an asset they can’t afford.
Aaron Harang was signed to give Philly the same kind of
innings he gave Atlanta last year. As a
36-year old, he gave Atlanta 204 IP, a 12-12 record and 3.57 ERA. That was phenomenal output and was completely
unexpected. Harang used to be an
excellent, underrated pitcher, but his best days are far behind him. While he started hot for the Braves, his
second half was not nearly as strong as his first half. I thought he’d have a similar year in Philly,
with perhaps 10 Wins, 12 losses and an ERA of 4 moving to the hitter’s park in
Philly. 200 IP would make this signing a
win. Even 175 IP. While he started on a strong note again, his
last 8 starts have been a mess and he is now on the DL with plantar fasciitis.
With Harang going to the DL, the Phils were able to activate
Chad Billingsley. They were hoping for a
bounce back for Billingsley, the talented starter who saw his Dodger career
ruined by injuries. He’s only made 2
starts in the last two years so this was a risky move for Philly. But he came cheap and had 81 Wins and a
career ERA under 3.70 coming into the season.
Like Harang, the goal was innings.
But he started the year on the DL.
I thought he’d come back sooner than he did and maybe make 25 starts and
give Philly 150 IP. My estimate was 8
Wins and an ERA of 4.25. But his late
return and a disastrous first 4 starts make those totals look unlikely.
Jerome Williams is a solid veteran arm who can fill in the
back end of a rotation. He played for 3
different teams last year, pitching out of the bullpen for Houston and starting
for Texas and Philadelphia. He went 5-3
in his 11 starts. His ERA was 6.43 as a
reliever in Houston and 9.90 in his 2 starts in Texas. Luckily he was much better in his 9 starts in
Philly, pitching to a 2.83 ERA. Like
Harang and Billingsley, I thought the goal for Williams was competitive
innings. I expected 5-8 Wins, 10 Losses
and maybe a 4.50-4.75 ERA. He has made
14 starts thus far and hasn’t even pitched well enough to reach those
pedestrian numbers. He’s currently on
the DL. Still, with the unsure situation
at the back of the rotation, the loss of Cliff Lee and the hopeful trade of
Cole Hamels, the Phillies just want him to throw a lot of innings and eat up
starts, even if that means an ERA of 5, which would currently be an improvement
on his numbers.
With all the injuries piling up, Philadelphia signed
journeyman Kevin Correia to a deal and he has made 5 starts for team thus
far. He’s 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA, so he has
not been great.
Sean O’Sullivan beat out David Buchannan for the last spot
in the rotation, but hasn’t played that well either. I didn’t expect much from him, but 1-6 with a
5.76 ERA in 12 starts is worse than I imagined.
That’s the starting rotation. It’s not great. It’ll get worse if Cole Hamels is traded,
which he should be. So David Buchannan
may get called back up. At least he’s
young, even if he hasn’t pitched well to this point in his career.
The bullpen features Jonathan Papelbon, another major trade
chip. He has no business on this team
and there are good teams that could use his closing expertise. He is the most likely piece to be moved. He’s not as good as he used to be, but he’s
reached 30 Saves in 2 of his 3 seasons in Philly, with the other year being a
29 Save season. He keeps runners off
base, works around hits and isn’t afraid to adapt and tinker with his approach
to pitching. And while he’s not an elite
closer anymore, he still better than average and would be a useful piece to any
number of contending teams, especially Houston and Toronto. I think he will get traded, but Ruben Amaro
will have to bring the asking price down.
The rest of the bullpen includes a number of young arms
including Justin De Fratus (who has made some starts for Philly), set up man
Ken Giles (a future closer) and Jeanmar Gomez, a formerly highly touted
prospect who hasn’t been successful starting at the big league level. These arms aren’t proven, but at least most
are young. But there is little
excitement about this group, even in comparison to other young bullpens.
The Phillies pitching staff wasn’t great last year. It only looks to be worse this season, with a
potential to lose their two best pitchers in Cole Hamels and Jonathan
Papelbon. The hope is the Phils will
also get a look at some of their young arms and see if any can be a meaningful
part of their future, though contending in the future looks to be farther away
than Phillies’ fans would like
Prediction:
The Phillies are a team in transition. The problem is, they have been a bad team for
years, but haven’t committed to re-building until seeing their team absolutely
fall apart. They are in the worst
possible position: they have a lot of
old, highly paid veterans to go with underwhelming young players. There is also very little in the high levels
of the Phillies’ farm system, which means change is farther away than anyone in
Philly wants to admit.
A good season for Philadelphia would be trading away Cole
Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon for a busload of prospects. A great year would be dumping Hamels,
Papelbon and Ryan Howard. Chase Utley
could also be on the trading block, or at least he should be. Maybe Amaro ties Ryan Howard to Cole Hamels,
the way John Hart did with Craig Kimbrel and B.J. Upton. The problem is, these guys have been on the
block so long with no interested trade partners, that the Phillies may have
reached a point of diminishing returns, and may have to eventually settle for
far less than they want. The other
option is to continue paying these guys a bunch of money for subpar baseball
(outside of Papelbon and Hamels). That’s
the worst possible option, so don’t be surprised to see some movement from
Philadelphia at the trade deadline.
The future is not clear for Philly. What is clear, is that the present will be
bad. It can look better, if the Phillies
can dump some assets while they have value.
But even that will only help some, as they need to re-build from the
minors up to the major league club. This
team has fallen on hard times and seems unlikely to improve soon. I’m thinking 60
Wins and a last place finish in the NL East.
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