Projected Division Finish
1.
Boston Red Sox
2.
Toronto Blue Jays
3.
Baltimore Orioles
4.
Tampa Bay Rays
5.
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
2014 Finish: 84-78
(Second Place)
Projected Batting
Order My
Batting Order
CF Jacoby
Ellsbury LF Brett Gardner
LF Brett Gardner RF Carlos Beltran
RF Carlos
Beltran CF Jacoby Ellsbury
1B Mark Teixeira 1B Mark Teixeira
C Brian McCann C Brian McCann
3B Chase Headley DH Alex Rodriguez
DH Alex Rodriguez 3B Chase Headley
2B Stephen Drew 2B Stephen Drew
SS Didi
Gregorius SS Didi Gregorious
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Masahiro
Tanaka
LHP C.C.
Sabathia
RHP Michael
Pineda
RHP Nathan
Eovaldi
RHP Adam
Warren
CLOSER Dellin
Betances
I will admit there is something deliciously satisfying in
picking the Yankees to finish in last place.
That being said, I truly believe this projection is well deserved. I live in New York. It is a great place to live filled with
smart, open-minded people. But when it
comes to sports, New Yorkers are some of the most close-minded and least
informed people I know. Maybe they are
so open-minded and intelligent on the important things in life that they need a
break when it comes to sports. I have
spent over a year touring the country for work and spent a lot of time visiting
family or working in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina,
Maryland, Tennessee, Massachusetts and California. I have a better than average understanding of
the national sports scene and of fan attitudes in those areas. And I can tell you without a doubt that I’ve
never spent time in a place where fans were less realistic than in New
York. Perhaps they aren’t to blame. You see less baseball here than just about
any where else in the country that isn’t effected by blackouts. It makes no sense, because there are more
sports fans of other teams living in New York than anywhere else in the
country. But you can pretty much only
watch the Yankees and Mets. The local
ESPN affiliate cannot show New York games due to the contract local cable
companies have with SNY and the Yes Network.
However, whenever they have the option to show a New York game or
something else, they choose the New York game.
Essentially that means they choose to be blacked out for 3 hours instead
of showing another game from another region.
The local Fox affiliate doesn’t show afternoon baseball as often as they
usually do. On the Sunday of this
writing, there were baseball games on all over the country on Fox, MLB Network,
ESPN, ESPN 2 and local sports channels.
In New York, we had TV reruns on Fox, drag racing on ESPN, boat racing
on ESPN 2 and MLB Network was blacked out.
The only baseball options were the Mets in the late afternoon and the
Yankees re-run of the previous evening’s game since the Yanks were on Sunday
Night Baseball. There was live baseball
all day, and we got 1 game until Sunday night.
I don’t know if it’s a ploy to get more people to root for New York
sports teams but it’s frustrating and asinine.
Even in other big cities (LA, Chicago, D.C.) this doesn’t happen. There may be other issues with blackouts and
local teams not being on TV in those markets, but they never choose to not show
baseball from other markets. So the
biggest, most well connected city in the world offers you fewer sports than
just about anywhere else. (It happens with football too).
So when Yankees fans are convinced they are going to be the
best team in baseball, perhaps it’s because they don’t realize there are 29
other teams in the game, most of which look like they’ll be better. After a great run of 5 World Series titles
and 17 postseason appearances in 18 years their style of management caught up
to them. Having a lot of money keeps you
competitive for short periods. But
eventually other teams will catch you because they draft and develop well. The Yankees are the worst at drafting and
developing players. And with more teams
willing to spend a lot of money, the Yankees are finding themselves ignored
this year when it comes to playoff discussions.
(But if you live in the Tri-State area, you’d think they are the odds-on
favorites to win it all).
Last year’s team was 84-78 and finished in second
place. But with a negative 31 run
differential, they were clearly not the second best team in that division and
were statistically one of the luckiest teams in baseball. They are another year older and look a little
worse this season than they did last year.
If they want to be relevant, they have to have great years from
Teixeira, Beltran and McCann as well as another good year from Ellsbury and
Gardner. But they have too many holes,
too many questions and too many years to be considered a threat this season.
Offense/Defense:
This offense looks old.
They have limited speed and power and terrible athleticism. Re-signing Chase Headley was a must. Adding Garrett Jones gives them a good bat
off the bench and some insurance at first and DH. Retaining Chris Young was also big to provide
insurance in right for Carlos Beltran.
As much they may hate it, getting Alex Rodriguez back will be a boost to
this team. But those new faces alone
won’t be enough to help this offense improve.
The Bronx Bombers hit 245 last year, in the lower half of the league
despite the little league dimensions of the New Yankee stadium. They were third to last in runs scored and
hits and were shockingly only an average home run hitting team. They did rank third in SB, primarily due to
Ellsbury and Gardner, their best offensive players.
Jacoby Ellsbury is probably their best hitter. A lot of locals don’t like him because he is
overpaid. But considering everyone on
the roster is overpaid I don’t know why you’d pick a bone with one of the few
hitters who produced. The Yankees like
him leading off and there is no question he is the best leadoff option on the
club. But he’s also one of the better
middle of the order bats on the team.
And since Brett Gardner is a good leadoff man too, I like Ellsbury
hitting third because of his HR and RBI potential. He hit 271 last year with 16 HR, 70 RBI, 39
SB and 71 R. He had a 328 OBP. He will succeed wherever he hits. But considering his power potential (remember
he hit 32 HR in 2011), I’d hit him third.
Overall, I see him as a 280 hitter with 15 HR and 30 SB. If he’s leading off he scores 85+ R. If he’s hitting third he drives in 80+
runs.
At this point, I think you can argue that Brett Gardner is
the second best hitter on the team. The
only starter who is a homegrown product, Gardner got a big deal a few years ago
and is as underrated as a Yankee can be (a few years ago they were talking
about a Gardner for Cueto deal in NY and Yankees fans couldn’t understand why
Cincinnati wouldn’t go for it). Last
season wasn’t his best as he hit a career low (outside of 42 games as a rookie)
256. But he still stole 21 bags, scored
87 R, had a 327 OBP and hit a career high 17 HR with a career high 58 RBI. He’s not a power hitter, but that’s what
happens when any lefty gets a lot of playing time in the new Yankee
stadium. I like Gardner as a quality
role player. Think 270 with an OBP around
350. That’s why I like him in the
leadoff hole where he could flirt with 90 R.
But hitting second will drop that number to 80 or less. Think 10 HR and 25 SB with a shot at more if
he leads off (he stole 47 and 49 bases in 2010 and 2011).
Mark Teixeira is still a quality player, if not the
offensive threat he once was. He’s had
health issues and hasn’t appeared in 150+ games since 2011. Last year he was healthier and appeared in
123 games. He hit 22 HR with 62 RBI in
that time. But that came with a 216
AVG. He’s been transitioning into a
one-dimensional hitter since he arrived in New York and it’s been more obvious
in recent years. His AVG has dropped
every season he’s been in pinstripes. While
he was initially hitting 30+ HR and driving in 100+ runs, he hasn’t reached
either plateau since 2011 (though he was on pace in 2012 with 24 HR and 84 RBI
in 123 games). He still has value as a
power hitter and that’s what they count on from him. Put him down for 220 with 25 HR and 75+ RBI.
Brian McCann predictably became a similar hitter to Teixeira
last season. Any lefty with power sees
the short porch in the new Yankee stadium and immediately thinks they can hit
60 HR in a season. Last year he slugged
23 and drove in 75, but only hit 232.
He’s a career 271 hitter who generally hits around 20 HR. But he hasn’t reached 270 since 2011 and his highest
AVG from that point on was 256. Again,
20 HR and 75 RBI is valuable, especially from a catcher. I think he may improve some, but think 250 is
his ceiling and doubt he hits more than 25 HR, even in that park (career high
24 HR). I’m guessing 240 with 22 HR and
68 RBI.
Carlos Beltran was supposed to be a major part of this
offense, but his age and injury history have caught up to him. To be fair, most everyone outside of the
Bronx knew the signing was a bad idea.
Last year he hit 233 with 15 HR.
The 15 HR are valuable, but not worth what he’s paid. They want him to be their number 3-hitter,
which is funny. He’s had roughly 76 knee
surgeries, so you can expect him to be injury prone. This year, I’d be shocked if he reached 120
games. I really do think he’s going to
be a 230 hitter again with perhaps 10 HR, depending on how much time he misses
(and he will miss time).
The Yankees added Chase Headley in a trade with the Padres
last year. He was solid and better upon
leaving the hitters graveyard in San Diego.
He hit 13 HR between the two clubs, 6 of which came with New York in
fewer games. His 31 HR/115 RBI season of
2012 is certainly an aberration. I’m
putting him down for 260 with 12 HR, 60 RBI and 8 SB. He’ll be a solid bottom of the order bat,
better than most other number 7 hitters.
Stephen Drew and Didi Gregorious were added for defensive
purposes. Drew is manning second and
will be great defensively. But his
offense has fallen off a cliff.
Gregorious is much better defensively than Jeter, but that’s not saying
much. Additionally, he didn’t win out
the battle with Owings in Arizona last year despite being better
defensively. Neither one will do much at
the plate.
The last piece of this puzzle is Alex Rodriguez. After a crazy ride, A-Rod is back and playing
baseball with the Yankees, something many people would have considered
impossible last offseason. He’s served
his time, made amends and is back. Many
will never forgive him, and I don’t think they should. But on this team, he looks like he may be one
of the better offensive options. Even
with his full year off, he has a dynamic sort of game and enough natural talent
to fall into 270 with double-digit HR.
While he’s no longer the player he used to be, he’s playing good
baseball for the Yankees right now and has tied Willie Mays with 660 HR at the
time of this writing. What do I think he can do? I truly have no idea. But I’m guessing 270 with 12 HR. Can’t guess what he does in the RBI/R
departments because I don’t know where he’ll hit. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the
Yankees best run producer this year.
The bench includes Chris Young and Garrett Jones. Young proved to be a great bench option for
the Yankees last year after the Mets cut him.
He hit 282 in 23 games with 3 HR and 10 RBI. He’s been hot out of the gate to start
2015. He can play all three outfield
positions and was a former highly touted prospect who isn’t that old. He may end up taking over right field. Garrett Jones can be a DH option and backup
first baseman. He’s always been solid,
but has never really stuck as a starter for a long time. He hit 27 HR in 2012 and then 15 HR the last
two years with the Pirates and Marlins.
Moving to the new Yankee stadium could help his HR total, but it looks
like he won’t play nearly as much. I’ll
call 15 HR again, even in limited time.
This offense looks limited.
It won’t be terrible. Teixeira
and McCann can be good power hitters.
Gardner can get on base. And
Ellsbury can both score and drive in runs.
However the production at second, short and right will likely be
subpar. Headley and A-Rod will be solid,
but neither can do enough to pick up the lack of offense from the other three
positions. I think this team will score
runs but not as many as they are hoping to score. And their offense looks to be the fourth best
in the division, significantly behind Baltimore, Toronto and Boston.
The defense should be okay.
Teixeira is good at first, though not as good as he used to be. Drew should be excellent at second and
Headley is fine at third. Gregorious is
supposed to be a great defensive shortstop, but many scouts question his range
and arm. He’ll be better than Jeter, but
that’s not a high bar. McCann is solid
behind the plate, but doesn’t throw well. Beltran is a statue in right. Ellsbury is good in center and Gardner is
good in left, but neither have great arms.
A-Rod will play some in the corners, but that’s likely not going to work
out well. Chris Young can cover all
three-outfield spots well. This won’t be
the worst defense in baseball, but there are some definite weaknesses in the
field.
Pitching:
The biggest area of concern for the Yankees is on the
mound. Their offense looks old and
brittle, but it can score runs. There
are holes on defense, but they will make most of the plays. The pitching staff is a major question mark
and looks like it could be the true Achilles Heel for the Yankees woes this
season. Last year, the Yankees pitched
to a 3.75 team ERA, which was pretty average.
They were a middle of the road team in hits allowed, but did have the
third most Ks and fewest walks. But that
was bolstered by Tanaka’s great first half and Pineda’s great second half. Neither played a full season. In addition, that staff has lost Brandon
McCarthy, David Phelps and Hiroki Kuroda.
The Yankees have to be better on the mound this year than they were last
year to make the playoffs. And that seems
unlikely to happen with the personnel they have.
Their ace is Masahiro Tanaka. He was excellent last year, certainly better
than many (me included) thought he’d be.
But he was shut down early because of a tear in his UCL. It was a small tear and so they took the rest
and rehab approach to fixing it not wanting to see him miss a whole year. It will likely tear again, but in true Yankee
fashion they took the immediate fix route instead of setting themselves up for
the future. It’s worked in the past, but
what’s the rush? They aren’t going to be
good this year anyway. In 20 starts last
season, Tanaka went 13-5 with a 2.77 ERA.
He struck out 141 in 136 IP and had a sparkling 1.06 WHIP off the
strength of few walks. But that was a
fully healthy Tanaka. Coming into this
year he admitted that he doesn’t have all his velocity and won’t throw as many
4 seam fastballs. But you need to see
the 4 seamer for the split to be effective. I think it’s a recipe for disaster. I also think it’s just a matter of time
before his elbow tear grows and he can no longer pitch. I doubt he finishes the season and until he
does, he will get hit much harder with his diminished stuff. Think 12 starts, 4 Wins and an ERA around 4
until he goes down.
Michael Pineda may be the best hope for the Yanks going
forward. In 13 starts last year he was
excellent going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA. He
had a 59:7 K:BB ratio last season and hitters only hit 200 off of him. I had a conversation with a Yankees fan who
said Pineda was a top 10 pitcher in the AL.
I laughed, but admitted he was good.
(For reference, the pitchers I would pick ahead of him: Chris Archer,
David Price, Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzjia, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Garrett
Richards, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Hishashi
Iwakuma…..not to mention the injured Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb and Matt
Moore). I like Pineda for 12-15 Wins
with an ERA around 3. If he reaches 200
IP, he could have 180 Ks.
C.C. Sabathia is no longer the pitcher he once was. Injury limited him to 8 starts last season
going 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA. He has been
similarly roughed up to start off this year.
He’s getting older, has a ton of innings on his arm and is losing
velocity. Since 2011, his ERA has
climbed every year and in his last full season it was 4.78. The more alarming signs are his WHIP and BAA,
which are both terrible. I think the
Yankees best hope for him is that he can be an innings eater, but pitching like
he’s currently throwing you don’t want him out there for too many innings. I expect a losing record, 8 wins and an ERA
around 4.50 or higher.
The Yankees let a lot of guys go last year, and par of the
return was Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was
solid for the Marlins last year going 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA. That’s not good, but he was healthy and threw
199 IP, which makes him valuable to the Yankees. The year before he had a 3.39 ERA in 18
starts. He’s still young so the Yankees
are hoping he grows into a talented pitcher.
But even in his better seasons, his WHIP and BAA have been below average
to bad. Moving from Miami to the tough
pitching dimensions of the new Yankee stadium won’t help him either. This may be another pitcher flirting with an
ERA of 5 and double-digit losses.
With Ivan Nova on the shelf recovering from Tommy John and
Chris Capuano making his way back from his own injury, the fifth spot in the
rotation goes to Adam Warren. Warren is
a young guy with 3 starts to his name between 2012 and 2013 and then 69 relief
appearances last year for the Yankees.
It’s too small of a sample size to be sure what he can do starting, but
he was more than solid as a reliever with a 2.97 ERA last year and 23
holds. His WHIP and BAA were solid, so
they’ll see how he does starting. He has
a short leash though as Capuano is likely due back in May and can challenge him
for his starting job. They also know he’s
good in the bullpen, which could hurt him in the decision as to who starts.
The bullpen actually looks pretty decent. Dellin Betances didn’t have the makeup to
start, but has turned himself into a great reliever with 135 Ks last year, the
most of any reliever since 2010. They
will let him get the first crack at closing.
With his stuff (97 MPH fastball and hard slider) I think he’ll succeed
to the tune of 30+ Saves and an ERA around 2.50. He is supported by a lot of solid arms in
Andrew Miller and David Carpenter, not to mention the loser of the last
starting spot battle between Capuano and Warren.
This pitching staff was solid last year. But they got worse in the offseason. Sabathia is a shell of himself. Tanaka is a time bomb. Pineda hasn’t had a full season in the majors
since his rookie year. Eovaldi, Warren
and Capuano are question marks. The
bullpen looks solid, but like most bullpens has weaknesses after the top 3
arms. If they have to pitch too often to
make up innings for the struggling starting staff (which seems likely), then
things could get ugly. And with their
ballpark and the offenses they have to face, I see things getting ugly fast.
Prediction:
The problem with the Yankees this year is that nothing is
good. The offense isn’t bad, but it’s
not good. The defense is average at best. The starting rotation isn’t good and looks
like it will be bad. The bullpen isn’t
bad, but too many innings will hurt them.
They are old, un-athletic and overpaid.
They have the second worst offense in the division and the worst
pitching staff. That’s a prelude to
disaster. Add to that the pressure of
expectations playing in NY, and I think this team crumbles and falls hard.
I’m putting them down for a surprising last place finish and
70 Wins.
No comments:
Post a Comment