Projected Division Finish
1.
Kansas City Royals
2.
Detroit Tigers
3.
Chicago White Sox
4.
Cleveland Indians
5.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
2014 Finish: 70-92
(Fifth Place)
Projected Batting
Order
SS Danny Santana
2B Brian Dozier
1B Joe Mauer
RF Torii Hunter
DH Kennys Vargas
3B Trevor Plouffe
LF Oswaldo Arcia
C Kurt Suzuki
CF Jordan
Schaffer
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Phil
Hughes
RHP Ervin
Santana/Mike Pelfrey
RHP Ricky
Nolasco
RHP Kyle
Gibson
LHP Tommy
Milone
CLOSER Glen
Perkins
The Twins are in the middle of a re-build, even if they
didn’t realize it until after the rest of the sport. The current major league club hasn’t played
well in recent years with a surprisingly average offense, bad defense and
woeful pitching. The Twins were forced
to make some changes and fired Ron Gardenhire after 13 very good years. No one thinks he’s a bad manager, but the
youngsters in that clubhouse didn’t mesh with him.
I don’t like this team this season. They are still re-building and will really
miss Gardenhire, one of the better managers in the game. Add to that a ballpark that smothers offense
and the lack of fans (shockingly no one wants to sit outdoors in Minnesota’s
cold spring weather to watch bad baseball) and this will be a long season in
the Twin Cities.
Offense/Defense:
This offense was actually better than people realize. Most thought they were going to be among the
worst in the league. They were actually
fairly average ranking 5th in Runs and 6th in Hits. For most teams, that’s not something to write
home about (remember this is 5th out of 15) but it’s a big
improvement for the Twins.
This offense is built around Joe Mauer. He is the hometown boy who has won a batting
title and signed a big contract to stay in the area. But after the ink dried, the Twins started
experiencing buyer’s regret. Mauer has
never hit for power, despite his size and has no speed. He is becoming a base clogger. As a catcher, having a 300 hitter was a
novelty. As a first baseman, they’d
rather see him hit for power. He had one
of his worst seasons last year hitting a career low 277 with only 4 HR and 55
RBI. Injury limited him to 120 games
last year, so there is additional hope that a fully healthy Mauer will play a
little better. Hitting third will give
him RBI opportunities. Hitting over 300
in a spot with a lot of RBI opportunities can net you 70 RBI. That’s okay, but if that’s the ceiling for
your number 3 hitter, you are in trouble.
Additionally, opposing pitchers have little incentive to pitch to Mauer,
considering his supporting cast. Mauer is
a limited player, paid like a superstar for a team with limited resources. I think he could hit 300 again, but wouldn’t
expect more than 10 HR and 80 RBI. I’d
really expect 8 HR and 70 RBI. Not bad,
but not worth the money he’s paid.
Brian Dozier has turned into a pretty good player at second
base. He hit 242 last year, but added 23
HR and 71 RBI. He also added 112 R, good
enough for second in the league. If you
have a light hitting first baseman, having a power hitting second baseman helps
offset the lack of power. Dozier also
stole 21 bags so he contributes in multiple ways. Dozier is expected to hit second again with
the hope that hitting behind the leadoff man will get him a lot of fastballs to
hit. It also helps utilize his
speed. I like him better in the cleanup
spot, but that’s just my opinion. It
depends on where he hits, but I think he can hit 240 again (241 career AVG over
3 seasons) with 20+ HR and SB. If he
hits 4th, he can threaten for 100 RBI (likely more like 85). If he hits 2nd, expect closer to
70 RBI and maybe 90-100 R again. His
great OBP gets him into scoring position more than someone with his AVG
normally would.
Tori Hunter has returned to Minnesota where his career
began. He is no longer the Gold Glove
center fielder he used to be and he has also struggled to be a decent right
fielder over the last few years. But
having a proven winner and good clubhouse guy on this team of youngsters was a
worthy investment for the Twins. He also
steps in as one of the better hitters on this team, even on the downswing of
his career. He hit 286 last season with
17 HR, 83 RBI and 71 R hitting second for the superior Detroit offense. The Twins plan to hit him cleanup, which I
don’t like only because Dozier has a higher ceiling in that spot. Put him down for 270 with 15 HR, 80 RBI and
60 R. I’d hit him second, in which case
you could still see 70+ RBI with over 70 R as well.
Danny Santana emerged as a viable leadoff option for
Minnesota last year. After primarily
playing CF for the Twins last year, he will be their everyday shortstop and
leadoff hitter this season. He hit 319
in 101 games last season with 20 SB, 70 R and 7 HR. His 353 OBP was much better than most rookies
and I think he could be their future leadoff man. I would expect growing pains in his second
season, but still think he could be a viable leadoff option. I’m thinking 280 with a 330 OBP, 40 SB and 90
R. If the rest of the offense was any
good I’d think fewer SBs and more R, but that’s not a bad bottom line for
anyone, much less a second year shortstop.
Oswaldo Arcia is the most aggressive hitter on this club
with 20 HR in only 103 games last year.
That came with a 231 AVG, but that’s to be expected from a young player
with his makeup. Frankly, the Twins don’t
care if he hits 220, as long as he hits for power and can be someone pitchers
fear throwing to. A lot of people expect
a breakout, but I don’t know. The
supporting cast isn’t great and the ballpark kills power. I think he’ll hit 230 again with maybe 25-30
HR, but no more than 75 RBI.
Trevor Plouffe will run back out there for his 6th
season playing third for the Twins. He
is unexciting and not someone anyone focuses on, but he has had quietly
productive seasons the last few years.
He had 24 HR in 2012 with a 235 AVG.
He’s improved his AVG by about 20 points over the last two seasons, but
has seen a drop in HR with 14 each of the last two years. That being said, the Twins are happy with his
performance. He hit 258 last year with
his 14 HR and a career high 80 RBI. They
gave him a look for the cleanup hole, but are likely to hit him hit 5th
or 6th. I think he may start
the season 5th, but will settle into the 6th hole with
Arcia having better power potential. Put
him down for 250, 12-15 HR and 70-80 RBI.
The rest of the lineup will be made up of DH Kennys Vargas,
catcher Kurt Suzuki and center fielder Jordan Schafer. Vargas will be the DH and play first base on
occasion to let Mauer have a break from playing in the field. Vargas hit 274 in 53 games last year with 9
HR and 38 RBI. I have no idea why they
want him to bat 5th with his limited experience. Hitting 5th is a lot of
responsibility for a guy with less than a third of a season of experience under
his belt. While he’s got good power and
handles fastballs, he needs to improve on his ability to hit breaking pitches
if he’s going to be successful in the big leagues. Hitting 5th will add undue
pressure on him, and I think he may struggle to the tune of 220 with maybe 15
HR.
Kurt Suzuki hit a very impressive 288 over 131 games with
the Twins last year. He has no power or
speed and is only a career 257 hitter, so that AVG was a surprise. They like him for defense and consider any
offense a bonus. He is just a
placeholder until young Josmil Pinto gets his defense into major league
shape. Based on where it was last year,
Pinto may spend all year at Triple A.
Jordan Schafer will hold down center field until the arrival
of top prospect Byron Buxton. Schafer is
a former top prospect that struggled in the majors, served a PED suspension and
then settled into a part time role last year.
After failing as a starter in Houston, he returned to Atlanta last
season, where he began his career and played as a fourth outfielder. He only hit 163 with 15 SB while playing
great defense. With B.J. Upton’s
struggles, many Braves fans wanted him to take over the starting job. Instead, the Braves let him go to Minnesota,
where he was great in 41 games with the Twins.
He hit 285 with a 345 OBP stole 15 more bases in 20 fewer games and
scored 17 Runs. If Santana struggles in
the leadoff spot, Schaffer can be a viable leadoff option. If not, he can hit 9th to get on
base for the flipped lineup and maybe steal 20-30 bags. He, too, is only a placeholder for Buxton,
who may appear in the majors this year.
This offense isn’t overly potent. They have a first baseman that hits for AVG
and a second baseman that hits for power.
They have speed in the middle infield and moderate power in the corner
outfield spots as well as at third. They
could be competitive, but won’t win a lot of games on their own. This offense isn’t as bad as people think it
is, but won’t be any better than slightly above average.
The defense has gotten sloppy in Minnesota over recent
years. That’s part of the reason they
let Gardenhire go. But I don’t think
that will do much to help the on-field defensive production. Mauer is still learning first. Dozier is
average at best, maybe a bit below average at second. Santana should be good at short despite
playing more games in center last year and Plouffe is average or better at
third. Hunter has definitely lost a step
in right and has very limited range. He
hides it well with his experience and good positioning, but he is a below average
right fielder. Oswaldo Arcia was bad in
right. They are moving him to left,
hoping that he’ll play better there, but he has bad reactions and makes bad
reads. Eduardo Nunez is more of an
offensive bench player who has struggled in the infield defensively and is
trying to learn left field. Aaron Hicks
is trying to get healthy enough to play some center field and Eduardo Escobar
has a nice glove backing up the middle infield.
Kurt Suzuki is pretty good behind the plate as is Schafer in
center. They are arguably the two best
defenders on the team right now. This
defense won’t be helping the pitching staff a whole lot.
Pitching:
While this offense could use some work, the pitching staff
could use even more. They made
significant improvement last season and were still last in the league with a
4.57 ERA. They have had the highest team
ERA in the league over the last two years and they weren’t good last year
ranking last in both hits allowed and Ks.
They don’t have any pitchers who can throw gas and only one of their
soft tossers had the command to get hitters out last year (Phil Hughes). While they have been bad across the board,
their starters have been particularly atrocious. This team won’t be good this year and with
the way their pitching staff is constructed, they may not be good for a while.
I mentioned Phil Hughes as the staff ace. He lacks overpowering stuff and gets by with
great command. He led the Twins with 16
Wins, a 3.52 ERA and 186 Ks. While that
number of Ks doesn’t look bad, he had to throw 209 innings to get there. And while he had the best walk rate in a
single season last year en route to a 1.13 WHIP, he still uses smoke and
mirrors to keep runs off the board, as evidenced by his 268 BAA. Long story short, guys will get hits off of
him. But if he can continue to strand
runners and avoid walks, he should have another okay season. He was very lucky last year and it only led
to a 3.52 ERA. I think he’ll be the
Twins most competitive pitcher again, but we are only looking at 10-12 wins
with an ERA under 4, but likely north of 3.75.
Ricky Nolasco was added last offseason and was supposed to
help settle this starting rotation. It
didn’t work out. Nolasco went 6-12 with
a 5.38 ERA. Hitters crushed him to the
tune of a 316 BAA. He put a ton of
runners on base and didn’t have the stuff to get out of trouble. He is another guy with average stuff, but
doesn’t have the control Hughes has. I
don’t think he’ll be much better this year, likely with another losing record,
about 5 wins and an ERA north of 4.50.
200 IP would be a win, no matter how he gets there.
Ervin Santana was supposed to be the new number 2 starter
after his good season with the Braves last year, but a second PED violation has
gotten him suspended for almost half the season (80 games). Before coming back he will likely need some
minor league rehab games, so the Twins can’t expect him back until after the
All Star Break. With that much time off
who knows how sharp he’ll be.
With Santana gone, Mike Pelfrey has returned to the starting
rotation, a place he thought he never should have left. He only made 5 starts last year before going
down with another injury. He was
terrible in those starts, pitching to a 7.99 ERA. The year before it was a 5.19 ERA in 29 starts
with the Twins. I don’t expect much from
him, likely another ERA around 5 in his starts.
I’m honestly confused as to why he thought he deserved to be starting in
the first place.
The rest of the rotation is made up of Tommy Milone and Kyle
Gibson. Gison was passable in 31 starts
last year with a 13-12 recocrd and 4.47 ERA.
He made improvements from his first season and that’s really all that
matters. Not much is expected of him,
likely another season north of 4 in the ERA department. Milone is a former highly touted prospect
that is now just looking to succeed as the 5th starter on a last
place team. He only made 5 starts and 1
relief appearance last year and struggled with a 7.06 ERA. He’s got a decent body of work and has
pitched to a 3.98 ERA in his 5 limited seasons.
Injuries been a major issue with him and he is likely not the pitcher he
used to be in Oakland. But he had a good
year in 2013 (6-3 in 16 starts with a 3.55 ERA) so maybe he can be a quality
starter if healthy. I’m expecting a
losing record with an ERA around 4.50.
The bullpen is actually a better group of arms than the
starters, but that’s not saying much.
Closer Glen Perkins earned 34 saves last year despite a subpar 3.65 ERA
last season. He struck out 66 in 61 IP,
but saw hitters hit 258 off him, not good at all. He’ll be acceptable again this year, but not
one of the best. 30 Saves and an ERA
between 3 and 3.50.
The rest of the arms are unremarkable. Blaine Boyer is a reclamation project that
struggled in relief for the Braves years ago and Tim Stauffer is a failed
starter trying to make a go of it in relief.
Brian Duensing is another failed starter trying to make it as a
reliever. They aren’t a good group, but
aren’t the worst in the league either.
This pitching staff is one of the worst in baseball. While the bullpen is only near the bottom,
the starters might actually be ranked at the bottom. Even if they aren’t that bad and improve
some, they are a far cry from competitive, much less good. Minnesota has a lot of holes, but the men on
the mound make up the most gaping one.
Prediction:
Look out Twin Cities, this is going to sting. The Twins are bad. They have a future ahead of them, but frankly
I don’t think it’s as close as they do.
In addition, they will miss Ron Gardenhire, miss Ervin Santana and
really miss their fans, which continue to stay away. The Twins built an outdoor stadium in one of
the coldest parts of the country for a team that plays games at least 6 months
out of the year. April is cold there. May isn’t warm. And if the Twins ever make the postseason (a
silly, ridiculous notion at this point) it will be cold in October and
November. People don’t like to sit
outdoors in cold weather for 3-hour baseball games. They really don’t like it when the on-field
product resembles a dumpster fire. I
don’t see any of that changing this year.
Spoiler alert: the Twins will finish in last place. They may win 70 games. They may only win 65. Gonna be a long year in Minnesota.
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