Projected Division Finish
1.
Seattle Mariners
2.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3.
Oakland Athletics
4.
Texas Rangers
5.
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
2014 Finish: 70-92
(Fourth Place)
Projected Batting
Order:
2B Jose Altuve
RF George
Springer
SS Jed Lowrie
1B Chris Carter
DH Evan Gattis
3B Luis Valbuena
C Jason Castro
CF Colby Rasmus
LF Jake
Marisnick
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
LHP Dallas
Keuchel
RHP Collin
McHugh
RHP Scott
Feldman
LHP Brett
Oberholtzer
RHP Brad
Peacock
CLOSER Luke
Gregerson
The Astros are a team that went nuclear years ago and
planned to rebuild. It’s been a longer
re-build than some wanted, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Last year, for the first time since their
move to the AL, the Astros didn’t finish in last place. And while this team as gets better every
season and should continue to grow in 2015, I still see them as a last place team.
They have some definite young talent and more than a few
established players at this point. But
there are still some questions on the roster and in the pitching staff. The future is bright, but questions and
inexperience cloud the present.
Offense/Defense:
I keep talking about improvement on the offensive side, but
the team clearly has a long way to go.
The offense ranked last in the league with a team AVG of 242. They were last in hits and second to last in
runs. But they were second in stolen
bases and third in HR. So they have some
power and some guys with speed. The
Astros hope that another year of experience and a few new pieces will help the
team improve their AVG, so as to better utilize that power and speed..
Jose Altuve leads the Astros offense. Altuve was last year’s batting champ hitting
341. He also led the league with 56
stolen bases. He has been the Astros
number 3 hitter for a while, but is a natural leadoff hitter who makes great
contact and wants to steal bases. He can
use the whole field and excels at creating offense. He should return to the leadoff hole this
year. I like him for a 300 AVG, 40 SB
and 90 R. Expect a drop in AVG because
his 360 batting average on balls in play was about 30 points higher than his
career norm.
Talented young outfielder George Springer is slated to be
the everyday right fielder in Houston this season. He showed off his prodigious power with 20 HR
in only 78 games last season after waiting out his service time
requirements. But his AVG was low and he
struck out in 114 of 295 ABs. The Astros
hope with Altuve getting on and perhaps trying to steal, Springer will see more
fastballs than normal and he can launch them out of Minute Maid Park. I don’t know how successful he’ll be, but I
can see another 20 HR/10 SB season easily, with perhaps more if he can learn to
lay off some of the stuff out of the zone.
His AVG could be anywhere from 220-260.
I’d be surprised if it was out of that range in either direction.
I put SS Jed Lowrie in the three hole. Lowrie is a guy who has done a little bit of
everything in his offensive career, and his experience on this team makes him a
good fit in this spot. A hand injury led
to a down season in Oakland in 2014, but he was great there the year before hitting
290 with 15 HR and 75 RBI. In 2012, he
played in 97 games for the Astros and hit 16 HR, albeit with a 240 AVG. I’d expect a season of 250-260 with 15 HR
again.
I put Chris Carter in the cleanup spot and have him manning
first base. He’s your classic
slugger: lots of HRs, low AVG, lots of
Ks, lots of walks. Last year was no
different, as he hit 227 with a career high 37 HR and 88 RBI. The year before he hit 223 with 29 HR and 82
RBI. With Carter, you know what you are
getting and you are okay with it. But
you accept it because of his prodigious power and ability to work the count and
earn a base on balls. Put him down for
another 220 season with 30+ HR and 75+ RBI.
Evan Gattis was a big name added in a trade with the
Braves. Gattis has played a lot of
catcher and a little left field in the national league. I think he will be the Astros primary DH and
hit fifth in their lineup. I think he
will excel in Houston and be a 30 HR guy with an AVG around 250. The Astros moving Gattis to DH will keep him
healthy and allow him to be a big RBI guy.
The rest of the lineup has potential, but also questions. Colby Rasmus was added on a one-year, make
good deal. Last year he hit 225 with 18
HR, 40 RBI, 4 SB and 45 R in an injury-shortened 104 games. The year before he only appeared in 118
games, but hit 276 with 22 HR and 66 RBI. He’s had trouble staying healthy, only
surpassing 150 games once in his career and only surpassing 140 games twice (only
once in the last 5 years). However, I
think he can really contribute if he stays healthy.
Catcher Jason Castro is looking for a bounce-back season
after a rough 2014 after a great 2013 season. He saw a drop in every offensive
category hitting only 222 with a mere 286 OBP.
They are okay with Chris Carter hitting like that because he hit 37 HR
last year. Castro hit 14 and plays poor
defense. So the Astros brought in Hank
Conger to push Castro a bit. Conger
isn’t as good offensively but his defense is far better. If both struggle, Gattis could potentially
catch on a regular basis, freeing Chris Carter to DH and letting power prospect
Jonathan Singleton get another crack at first.
The last two spots are up in the air. Third base is a battle between Luis Valbuena
and Matt Dominguez. Dominguez is the holdover,
but hasn’t gotten the job done. His
defense is fine, but he strikes out a lot, doesn’t hit for average and never
gets on base with one of the lowest OBPs in the majors. Dominguez has seen his AVG drop 3 straight
years. He hit 16 HR last year and 21 the
year before, but the last thing the Astros need is another guy who can hit for
power, but no AVG. The other third base
option, Luis Valbuena isn’t as good defensively, but hit 249 with the Cubs last
year and slugged 16 HR. With similar
power outlays, Valbuena looks like the frontrunner because he hits for higher
AVG, works more walks and strikes out less.
I think he’ll win the battle to start at third, and if so may see time
hitting second, to allow Springer’s power to drop into a better RBI spot in the
lineup.
Left field is a battle between Jake Marisnick and Robbie
Grossman. Grossman can play all three
outfield positions and is really the only other option to leadoff for the
Astros if they decide they want Altuve to hit second or third. Grossman features
some speed and the ability to take a walk and work the count. His career OBP is
335, but his AVG is only 248. He’s
better as a fourth outfielder. Jake
Marisnick is the highly regarded prospect that they want to win the job. Marisnick has limited major league
experience, but in 51 games with the Astros in 2014 hit 272 with 3 HR, 19 RBI
and 6 stolen bases. He’s hot this spring
and making a bid to stay with the big club.
Interestingly, his biggest challenger is actually Jonathan Singleton,
the number two first baseman. If
Singleton can hit, it moves Carter to DH and Gattis to left. Alex Pressley is also around, fighting for
playing time.
This offense, once again, will be very streaky. However, they could hit for a ton of
power. Carter and Gattis can hit
30. Either third baseman can hit
15-20. So can Castro and Rasmus. And no one knows how many HRs Springer can
slug. Altuve is a great player who can
get on, steal bases and score runs. We’ll see this team swing for fences a lot in
2015. If they connect, they can score
lots of runs. If not, this will be a
long season.
The defense is also a little iffy because we expect so many
guys to get playing time. Castro is
terrible behind the plate. Conger is
great. But Castro, the better offensive
player, is supposed to play more. If he
continues to struggle, they may let Conger take over or even let Gattis catch. Gattis is as good defensively as Castro, but
far worse than Conger. Chris Carter is
not at all good at first. Singleton is
only average, but young and perhaps has room to improve. Altuve is a plus defender at second but
Lowrie is average at best at short and has no range. Dominguez is solid at third. Valbuena is below average. The good news is the outfield should be
good. Springer is great in right, Rasmus
is good in center and Marisnick will be phenomenal in left. He can also play center, as can Springer, if
Rasmus struggles. Gattis would be bad in
left, but the hope is he can stay out of there.
Robbie Grossman is a good defender who can backup all three outfield
positions.
Pitching:
The Astros pitching staff is just as young as their offense. Last year, the Astros pitched a little better
than expected to a 4.11 ERA. However,
that mark was fourth worst in the league. They had to support a streaky offense that
struck out a ton and struggled to score runs.
Things don’t look much different this year, other than the defense which
looks a little worse.
Dallas Keuchel led the team with 12 wins, a 2.93 ERA and 146
Ks. Interestingly, he is the most
extreme groundball pitcher in the league.
He doesn’t walk a lot of guys pitching to contact. His BAA is a little high (252), but as long
as he’s got a solid defense behind him, he should be okay. I think he can win double-digit games again,
but would expect his ERA to rise a bit as the defense behind him has gotten worse.
Collin McHugh was the other starter to emerge, going 11-9
with a 2.73 ERA. This was a shock, as
he’s never shown this ability before.
After struggling in the Mets organization he was picked up and
subsequently dropped by the pitching-needy Rockies. But upon arriving with the Astros, he was
coached up a bit, convinced to scrap his sinker and focused on throwing more
cutters and sliders. The result was more
Ks and his best season yet. He struck
out 157 in 154 IP and pitched to a sparkling 1.02 WHIP and 208 BAA. I think he may become the true ace in Houston
and have another double digit win season with an ERA around 3 and perhaps 180
Ks in 200 IP.
Scott Feldman is still around as the number 3 man. He does his job well, pitching in the middle
of the rotation and getting groundball outs. He went 8-12 last year with a 3.74 ERA in 180
IP. It’s the innings that are important
as he keeps the Astros in ballgames and saves the bullpen. But both his 1.30 WHIP and 266 BAA show that
he’s prone to base runners, mainly via the hit.
The rest of the rotation will be made up of Brett
Olberholtzer, Dan Straily and Brad Peacock.
Peacock is likely to miss opening day and is shooting to be back with
the big club by May 1st. He’s
on schedule to this point, but he isn’t a game changer. Over 40 career starts, he’s 11-15 with a 4.68
ERA. He walks too many guys and gives up
too many hits. Oberholtzer has seen his
numbers trend the wrong way. After going
4-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 10 starts with Houston in 2013, he went 5-13 with a 4.39
ERA and 295 BAA in 24 starts last year. Dan
Straily went 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA over 8 starts and 6 relief appearances for the
Astros and A’s last year. He’s got a
longer track record, but features a 4.54 career ERA with a 1.31 WHIP over 42
career starts. He and Oberholtzer will
start the season in the rotation, but only because there are no better
options. When Peacock comes back, the
three of them will slug it out for the last two spots.
The Astros bullpen situation is kind of up in the air. Luke Gregerson is the favorite to be the
closer. Gergerson has been a very
successful setup man over his career and is hoping to make the transition to the
9th inning. He made 72
appearances for the A’s last year with 22 Holds and a 2.12 ERA. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he doesn’t
walk guys (1.01 WHIP) or allow a lot of hits (220 BAA). I think Gregerson can be successful, even
without getting strikeouts.
His main competition is Chad Qualls, who has closing
experience but didn’t pitch as well last year.
He made 58 appearances for Houston going 19 for 26 in Save
opportunities. He was fine, but not
great with a 3.33 ERA (high for a closer) and gave up more hits than the Astros
wanted (265 BAA….very high for a closer).
He’s got the closing experience, but with a career 3.76 ERA, the Astros
are hoping someone else can take the bull by the horns, leaving Qualls to be a
quality setup man.
Pat Neshek is looking like the primary setup man in Houston
after notching 25 holds and a 1.87 ERA in 71 appearances with the Cardinals
last year. He struck out better than a
batter an inning, had a 0.79 WHIP and 183 BAA.
In short, he didn’t let anyone reach base. I expect more good things from him this year.
While the back end of the bullpen looks strong, the track
record of the rest of the guys doesn’t breed confidence.
The Astros have an up and coming pitching staff. The bullpen looks strong at the back end. The starters look strong up front. But the holes in the middle will be a major
thorn in the side of this Houston team.
Prediction:
You’ve probably seen this one coming for a while. I don’t like the Astros this year. I like them in the future, but not in
2015. The offense has potential, but may
set a record for strikeouts. The
pitching staff also has potential, but less than the offense this year. With major holes in both areas and very
suspect defense, I think the Astros will finish with about 70 wins and end up
in last place in the AL West.
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