LOS ANGELES DODGERS 92-70
(First NL West…Won Division & NLDS over Atlanta)
Projected Starting Lineup/Batting Order:
2B Dee Gordon
RF Yasiel Puig
SS Hanley
Ramirez
1B Adrian
Gonzalez
CF Andre Ethier
LF Carl
Crawford/Matt Kemp
3B Juan Uribe
C A.J. Ellis
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Clayton
Kershaw
SP Zack Greinke
SP Hyun-jin Ryu
SP Dan Haren
SP Josh Beckett
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Brian Wilson
RP Chris Perez
The Dodgers had the opposite season of the
Diamondbacks. They started very slow
with expectations out the wazoo with their high profile team and the highest
salary in baseball. But in June they
added Yasiel Puig to the club and Don Mattingly seemed to take over the locker
room. Puig was a spark that got this
offense going and the pitching continued to play well. The Dodgers had an incredible second half,
soaring up the standings and winning the division with room to spare. This year, they hope they have the chemistry
from the beginning and plan to be in control from game 1. We’ll see how it goes. Really the biggest issue going forward, is
how are all these good players going to get into one lineup? And unfortunately, that seems to be the one
thing that is causing some discord in the locker room as this team is not at
the top of the division, where they expected to be.
Offensively they are excited to have a full season of Yasiel
Puig. The Cuban defector hit 319 in 104
games last year after starting out hitting around 400 in his first month. He ended the year with 19 HR and 11 SB. He got on base at a 391 clip and will likely
hit at the top of the lineup. I think his
OBP and AVG will go down considerably in his first full season, but he should
still be an exciting player to watch. 25
HR is a real possibility and with that 60-70 RBI. I don’t know how many more SB he’ll get as he
only got 11 and was caught 8 times. He
may have to earn the SB chances going forward.
I’m not as high on him as everyone else is. He has all the talent in the world, but there
hasn’t been a player in recent memory that was this good in his rookie year,
and as good or better in his next season.
I’m expecting his AVG to fall below 300, maybe all the way down to
275. Maybe 20 SB, but that’s his ceiling
with his so-so success. Really, I
wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped to around 5th in the order to
maximize his power potential. We’ll
see. I still think he’s a great player
with incredible talent and potential.
But I’m expecting his numbers to fall off considerably. Carl Crawford was set to start the year
hitting second with Puig leading off, but the re-emergence of Dee Gordon
changed those plans. Not to mention the
injury that Crawford sustained to knock him out of the lineup for a while. He missed time with injury last year too, but
acquitted himself well in 116 games hitting 283 with 15 SB. Speed is the name of his game, and he’s still
got it as he gets older. He’s not a
premier hitter and not a natural leadoff hitter with a career 332 OBP and too
many strikeouts. But he’s got some pop,
good speed and experience. I’m expecting
another 270+ season with 10 HR, 20 SB and 70+ R, depending on health. I put Hanley Ramirez third after his
phenomenal half season last year. In 86
games he hit 345 with 20 HR and 57 RBI.
That’s on par for 40 HR and 110 RBI.
Incredible production from one of the most talented players in the
league. He’s playing short and happy in
LA, so I think a full season of him will produce incredible results. I put Adrian Gonzalez in the cleanup
hole. He’s not the star he once was, but
he’s a talented, dependable hitter. He
may not hit 30 HR, but an AVG around 300 with 20-25 HR and 100 RBI seems like a
lock. After that it gets iffy. Matt Kemp is still around, but missed the
beginning of the season with injury. He
came back, but was riding the pine for a while.
When he was hurt last year, Andre Ethier took over for him in
center. And it looks like Ethier will
stay there. When Crawford went down,
Kemp got a chance to play left, but he’s not happy there. He’s a former Gold Glove winning center
fielder, but recent metrics show his defense isn’t great. When he plays, he won’t be in the top third
of the order. I expect him to hit 5th
or 6th. But I have no idea
how he will perform. Last year he played
in 73 games hitting 273. But he had only
6 HR and 9 SB. Far off the 50/50 pace he
was shooting for after the 2011 season.
He’s got a ton of talent, but his speed and power may not return after
all his injuries. He’s truly a wildcard
now. Andre Ethier will be the other part
of the 5/6 tandem in the order. He’s got
the ability to hit 260+ with around 15 HR, depending on how much he plays. With Crawford hurt, he’s playing a lot. And with Kemp’s struggles, he may stay in the
lineup when Crawford comes back. Beyond
those two the Dodgers have re-signed Juan Uribe to play third. In 132 games last year he hit 278 with 12 HR
and 50 RBI. He’s a better hitter than
people realize, though the AVG will likely come down. Expect 15 HR from him and some RBI
production. He’s hurt now, so the
Dodgers are using a lot of Justin Turner.
I put A.J. Ellis 7th. Ellis
is a 250 hitter with 10 HR power. Which is
fine for a catcher. The Dodgers signed
Alexander Guerrero to play second in the future. Guerrero is another Cuban defector who is a
great hitter. He’s a natural shortstop
and his defense at second isn’t great right now. They were worried they’d need him in the
majors, but Dee Gordon has re-emerged and enabled Guerrero to say in the
minors, adjusting to professional ball and his new position. Gordon has been a huge surprise this season,
playing great ball and locking up the leadoff spot. He’s come back down to earth some as the
season has marched on, but he’s still hitting 274 and getting on at a 321
clip. And he’s swiped 36 bags. That’s the offense. Very loaded, but with some question marks due
to health. However they also have plenty
of options with Crawford and Guerrero waiting in the wings.
The defense looks okay.
Adrian Gonzalez is a former Gold Glover at first and there are 2 shortstops
in the middle infield, which bodes well. Uribe isn’t great defensively at third, but
Hanley Ramirez is better than advertised with his defense at short. In the outfield, Carl Crawford is great in
left, just lacks a powerful arm. Kemp is
a good defensive center fielder, but not great.
Puig has great speed and a rocket, but makes a lot of mistakes in
right. Ethier is dependable in center,
but also not great. However he’s very
good in right. So while the defense
overall isn’t exquisite, it will get the job done. And with these pitchers and this offense, the
Dodgers should be fine.
Their pitching is in good shape with the best pitcher in
baseball atop their rotation. Clayton
Kershaw won another Cy Young last year after going 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 232
Ks in 236 IP. His ERA and K numbers were
the best in the league. And with numbers
like that, you expect more than the 16 Wins.
I think he’ll get more this year, though pitching wins are a bit of a
wildcard. But expect another season of
200+ IP and Ks with good health (which he hasn’t had all year), not to mention
a sub 3 ERA. And that should be good for
15+ Wins. Zack Greinke is the number 2
starter for the Dodgers, and he’s good enough to be an ace on any team. He went 15-4 last season with a 2.63
ERA. And he did all that in only 28
starts. He is an absolute ace with a 234
BAA and 1.11 WHIP to go with 148 Ks in 177 IP.
His K totals have dropped in recent years and he wasn’t completely healthy
last year. But he should still be a lock
for a 200 IP, 170+ K and sub-3 ERA campaign with around 15 Wins again, assuming
good health. So they have two legitimate
aces at the top of the rotation, and lots of quality arms behind them. Hyun-jin Ryu was phenomenal in his first
season out of Korea. He went 14-8 with
an ERA right at 3 for the NL West Champs last year. He logged 192 IP with a WHIP that was below
the league AVG and a BAA right around the average at 252. He puts some runners on, but did a good job
stranding those runs. He may struggle a
bit more this year as hitters learn more about him, but he looks like a quality
starter, good for a sub 4 ERA and another 200 IP campaign. And that’s his floor with his ceiling
considerably higher. The Dodgers signed
Dan Haren to come in and be their fourth starter. The veteran struggled with the Nationals last
year, going 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA. All
his numbers were up from his career norms, but his WHIP was still around league
average. If he can give up fewer long
balls (and a move to Chavez Ravine will help that) and just give the Dodgers
some competitive innings, he should be in for double digit wins and probably an
ERA closer to 4. I don’t think he’s
going to earn 200 Ks anymore, but he’s a wily veteran with great success. He knows how to pitch. The 5 spot belongs to Josh Beckett but as a 5th
starter, the expectations for him are considerably reduced. He missed the early part of the season but
came back pitching great and has already gotten himself a no-hitter this
year. Eventually the Dodgers will get
Chad Billingsley back from Tommy John surgery.
Who knows what he’ll produce, but to have 2 strong starting options for
the last spot of your rotation is a great luxury. In addition, veteran Paul Maholm can spot
start and be the long man out of the bullpen.
And that bullpen is stacked. It
features Kenley Jansen, who was in the top 5 of reliever strikeouts last year
and looks to be a future star closer. He
turned in a 1.88 ERA last year with a 177 BAA.
Many consider him to be the second best closer in baseball, behind only
Craig Kimbrel. To set up, they have a
former All Star closer in former Giant Brian Wilson, who is working on pairing
a knuckleball with his heat. Chris Perez
was an All Star closer in Cleveland, signed to be middle reliever with LA. Brandon League was a good closer in Seattle 2
years ago. He started as the closer last
year, but lost the job due to ineffectiveness.
He’s still around. That’s 3
former closers supporting the current closer and other quality arms including
Maholm and J.P. Howell. As with all
other areas of the club, the bullpen is loaded with lots of options.
Outlook/Prediction:
The Dodgers are the best team on paper in their
division. They won the division last
year and have to be considered the frontrunners this year. Their future isn’t as bright, as they made a
lot of trades to win now. But they seem
to have a good chance to do that, so it was probably a worthwhile trade. They have 2 studs in the rotation and great
depth beyond them. Their offense is
among the best in baseball. And their
bullpen is possibly the deepest in the game.
While other teams in this division are good, I see no reason to pick
against the team that is absolutely the best. I know they’ve come out of the gate slowly
this year and they are having locker room issues. But they went through this last year and got
it under control. I think they will
again this year, and as the most talented team on paper I have a lot of trouble
picking against them. I have the Dodgers
winning the division and making some serious noise in the playoffs.
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