ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
81-81 (Second in NL West)
Projected Starting Lineup/Batting Order:
RF Gerardo Parra
3B Martin Prado
1B Paul
Goldschmidt
2B Aaron Hill
LF Mark Trumbo
C Miguel
Montero
CF A.J Pollock
SS Chris Owings
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Trevor Cahill
SP Brandon
McCarthy
SP Wade Miley
SP Bronson
Arroyo
SP Archie
Bradley
RP Addison Reed
RP J.J. Putz
RP Brad Zeigler
The Diamondbacks started the 2013 season hot, but slowed
down as the summer wore on. They
benefitted from the struggles LA had early on, but eventually the Dodgers
caught fire and blazed past them. They
didn’t help things by falling apart in the second half. They ended up staying in second place in the
division, but they were only a 500 team and missed the playoffs by a healthy
margin. Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers
have their fingerprints all over this team, which has underachieved for two
straight years. There was a belief that
if this team didn’t make the playoffs, then the seats under those two would
begin to get quite warm. But with the
slow start Arizona had many believe the heating of those seats has already
begun with the recent hire of Tony LaRussa as CEO of Baseball Operations. Some don’t like the move, some do. But all agree that it’s the precursor to a
change, a change that may see Towers and Gibson looking for a new gig.
The offense looks to be in pretty good shape. Gerardo Parra finally got the everyday gig in
the Arizona outfield last year after breaking in with the big club in 2009 and
playing in no fewer than 120 games. He
was an excellent fourth outfielder with a career 277 AVG and some Gold Gloves
to his credit. Last year he got the full
time job playing mainly right field and hit 268 with 10 HR and 10 SB. His 323 OBP is ok but generally not good
enough to leadoff regularly. He’s got
speed, though he’s not exceptional at stealing bases and he scored 79 R last
year. They hope he can pull that AVG up
closer to his career mark and get on base a little closer to a 350 clip. And if he can turn those 10 SB into 15,
perhaps we have a guy who can score 100 R.
Maybe slug another 10 HR too. But
mainly he’ll play great defense in right.
The Diamondbacks like having him hit at the bottom of the lineup, but I
think that’s a waste of his speed. And
while Pollock was the first choice to leadoff, Parra has taken over and I think
he’ll stay there this year.
Martin Prado will settle in as the starter at third and probably
hit second. He can play all over the
field, but has become their full time third baseman. He hit 282 last year with 14 HR, 82 RBI and
70 R. That’s right on part with what he
does, though the AVG is a little lower and his SB disappeared from 2012 (though
that was an aberration….he stole almost half his career total in that one
year). He may get back over 300 this
season, but if not will be right around it with perhaps 15 HR in Arizona
(ceiling). He’s not overly exciting, but
does a lot of things well, can get on base and both score and drive in R.
As is traditional, the Diamondbacks best hitter will be in
the 3 hole. That will be first baseman
Paul Goldschmidt. My pick for MVP last
year, Goldschmidt won 2/3 of a Triple Crown in the NL with a league leading 36
HR and 125 RBI. He also added 103 R, 15
SB and a 302 AVG. His AVG and OBP has
improved each season in his 3 major league seasons, and he’s got great power in
a great hitters park. He also played in
160 games last year and provides speed at first, a rarity for the position. He’s an absolute star, and I’d expect another
season around 300 with 30+ HR, 110+ RBI, 90+ R and 10+ SB. He’s a 5 tool contributor (won a Gold Glove
too) who is an absolute star in my book.
He should also have an MVP at this point, but short-sighted writers only
give those to playoff teams, despite hitters on other teams having better
numbers in this, the ultimate team sport.
I have second baseman Aaron Hill hitting cleanup in this
lineup. He’s not the most powerful on
the team, but has the most complete skill set after Goldschmidt. Last year was marred by injuries (87 games)
but he still hit 291 when healthy with 11 HR and 41 RBI. Over a full year that’s a 22 HR and 82 RBI
mark. In 2012, he hit 302 with 26 HR and
85 RBI, not to mention 14 SB. I think if
healthy, he can be a force, but we may see some regression. Think 20 HR and 80 RBI to go with 10 SB
max. And expect an AVG closer to 275
(career 273 hitter).
New addition Mark Trumbo will probably hit 5th. He’s a true slugger, with the most power on
the team. He hit 34 HR, driving in 100
in Anaheim last year. But that came with
235 AVG. However, putting him 5th
and saying “Just hit it deep” will unleash that power with no
reservations. It’s a good spot for a guy
who can be a huge help. His 34 HR led to
the 100 RBI and 85 R, despite the low average.
He’ll strike out a ton and his defense in left may not be great, but he
does one thing well, and that’s all they want him to do. After a blistering start, Trumbo was lost to
an injury. Cody Ross is filling in
admirably in left, but while the defense is better, there is not question they
miss Trumbo’s power.
I put catcher Miguel Montero 6th, after a down
season. Injuries limited him to 116
games, but when he played he struggled losing 56 points off his AVG. His HR total has dropped 3 straight years as
well, though the limited games were part of it.
I think he can bounce back, but I don’t know if he’s an All Star anymore. Think 260 with 12 HR.
The SS position is next and I gave it to Chris Owings. But he’s got to perform to hold off Didi
Gregorious, the high ranked prospect. Gregorious
played in 103 games with Arizona hitting 252 with 7 HR and 0 SB. It wasn’t great, and to Owings credit he won
the job away. Owings only played in 20
games last year, but hit 291 with 2 SB, a 361 OBP and 5 R. Owings has had the better spring and he’s the
one in the lineup.
I initially put A.J. Pollock in the leadoff spot, but he
hasn’t gotten to play there much. He hit
269 with 8 HR and 12 SB in 137 games last year. He’s got an interesting speed/power combo, but
I don’t think his AVG or eye is what they want from their leadoff man. His numbers are similar to Parra, but Parra
has more experience. However, with the
injury to Trumbo, Pollock has found himself moving up in the lineup, even
hitting 5th occasionally. He
struggled a little bit to start this year, and almost became the fourth
outfielder. But he’s fought to hold on
to his spot, and got a chance to leadoff again recently. They want him to take the leadoff job, but he
has to earn it. And even if he does,
he’s got enough pop that they may hold him lower in the lineup to maximize his
RBI potential with Trumbo out.
I mentioned Cody Ross (278/8 HR) as a talented fourth
outfielder who can do a lot of things well and seems to thrive in pressure
situations. He’s starting now with
Trumbo hurt. Eric Chavez (281/9 HR) is
still around and Cliff Pennington can play both middle infield spots and swipe
a bag as a pinch runner. This offense is
loaded and has lots of options.
The defense in Arizona is in good shape. There are 2 Gold Glovers in the field. One at first (Goldschmidt) and one in right
(Parra). So the right side is in good
shape. Prado is great at third and no
matter who plays short, the defense will be fine there. Hill is a good second baseman and Montero is
solid behind the plate. Trumbo is pretty
bad in left, but with Parra’s skill in right, Pollock can cheat to left to make
up for any deficiencies by Trumbo. And
he can be replaced for defensive reasons late in games. It’s not the best setup, but 2 Gold Glovers
is a good place to start.
The pitching doesn’t look to be in as good shape as the
offense. Patrick Corbin was their ace,
but has been lost to Tommy John. That
means Arizona’s ace may be Brandon McCarthy now who is not ace quality. He went 5-11 last year with a 4.53 ERA in 22
starts. He’s had injury issues, though a
lot of those were freak injuries. He’s
been successful in the past, but his first season out of Oakland and in Arizona
was, unsurprisingly, not quite as good (Oakland=Great pitchers
park….Arizona=Great hitters park). He’s
got potential and if he can harness his talent he could be a double-digit game
winner with an ERA south of 4. He’s not
a big strikeout guy and those aren’t the numbers you expect from an ace, but
that would be a successful season from McCarthy. So would 200 IP.
The other returning pieces to the rotation are Wade Miley
and Trevor Cahill. Cahill is another
former Oakland A, who hasn’t pitched as well after leaving the pitcher friendly
confines of O.Co Coliseum. However his
last season in Oakland wasn’t as good the past two years in Arizona, and he’s
got more of a horse reputation, notching around 200 IP the last three years,
until last year. Injuries limited him to
25 starts, but he was solid with a 3.99 ERA and 8-10 record. He’s not a Cy Young winner, but with their
potentially limited rotation, they just need another 200 IP season with an ERA
south of 4. Cahill seems a good bet to
deliver that.
Miley pitched in his second season for Arizona last year and
turned in a similar season to his strong rookie campaign. His ERA swelled by 22 points and his WHIP and
BAA also rose a bit. The issue was walks
last year, which is something he has to correct. It’s what turned his 16-11 freshman year into
a 10-10 sophomore year. He’s not a
strikeout guy. If he can trim the walks,
we’ll see another 200 IP season of 3.50 or better ERA ball and possibly 15
Wins. He’s also got ace potential, albeit
ace of this team, not others.
Free agent veteran Bronson Arroyo was the Diamondbacks
biggest signing this offseason. He’s
extremely important now that Corbin is out.
Arroyo went 14-12 last season with a 3.79 ERA in Cincinnati. Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is one
of the few parks that is actually a better hitter’s park than Chase Field so
you don’t worry about Arroyo’s numbers going in a bad direction. The real concern is the sore back that has
kept him from pitching all spring. He’s
an extremely durable starter that has never missed a start due to injury in his
long career. I know he’ll get healthy,
but he may not be ready to start the season.
When he does get healthy though, expect 200 IP of sub 4 ERA baseball
with few Ks and around 12 Wins.
The hope was that Archie Bradley would step in to take the 5th
starter spot with Corbin gone. But the
Diamondbacks are taking it easy with him and letting Josh Collmenter get some
time in starting. He’s a career spot
starter who’s had better success than people realize (3.47 career ERA) in his
time. Randall Delgado is another young
arm, part of the Justin Upton trade who can help out if needed.
The bullpen got a major overhaul with a trade for Addison
Reed to be the new closer in the desert.
Reed notched 40 Saves for the White Sox last year to the tune of a 3.79
ERA. That’s actually not a great ERA at
all for a closer, but his WHIP and BAA were great and he struck out better than
a batter an inning. If he can give up
fewer hits, things will improve, but he’s got experience closing and had
success in another hitter’s park in U.S. Cellular Field, which leads Arizona to
believe he’ll be fine in Arizona. To
support him, they have former All Star closer J.J Putz, last year’s second half
closer David Hernandez and situational stars Oliver Perez and Brad
Zeigler. The bullpen looks strong, but
may have to pick up some slack with the starting rotation in limbo. And thus far, the bullpen has dealt with
numerous injuries so that has held the team back to start the season.
Outlook/Prediction:
The outlook for Arizona has shifted. I thought they would be very good this
year. Then they had a terrible April. The team made changes and brought in LaRussa,
but since the calendar turned to May they’ve had the third best winning
percentage in baseball. So perhaps they
just needed to get their legs under them.
They have a young superstar at first, two young players fighting for
playing time at short, youngsters in left and center and at least 2 young
starters in the rotation, potentially more if Archie Bradley makes the
team. Their closer is young. That’s a good future. And their veterans aren’t that old. Prado is in his prime. Parra is as well. McCarthy and Cahill are prime players
too. So this is a good mix for the team
this year. Their future is in good
shape, but so is their present. However,
the thought in Arizona is that both the future and present could be
better. Towers has traded away a lot of
talent in the last few years. The most
recent dump was Adam Eaton and Trevor Bauer for Addison Reed and Trumbo. Trumbo got hurt and Reed has struggled. Before that, they dumped Justin Upton and
Chris Johnson, both of whom have played well in Atlanta. It’s hard to know what direction they are
headed in, and perhaps that’s worse than even going in the wrong
direction. It’s okay to re-build if you
admit to doing it. It’s okay to contend, for obvious reasons. The real crime is being stuck in the middle,
and many think that’s where the Diamondbacks are languishing.
This division is tough.
The Dodgers are good. The Giants
should be better. And the Rockies are
the surprise of this 2014 season so far.
The Diamondbacks have underachieved for back-to-back seasons. This is the year they have to get it
done. Winning the division is possible,
but a lot to ask for. A playoff spot is
a more attainable goal. But that’s not
certain either with the Giants expected to be better and at least 3 great teams
in the central and 2 in the East. They
have the talent, but have to play as well as they should. They haven’t done that the past 2 years. If they harness their talent, I’d expect a
potential wildcard slot with the weak teams at the bottom of their
division. If that doesn’t happen, expect
some changes in Arizona.
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