It’s everyone’s favorite time of year. My birthday’s coming up. Just kidding. (No really it’s December 9th, feel free to send
gifts.) But it’s the winter
meetings. Time for baseball’s
front offices to all get together in a hotel somewhere and play golf, eat in
fancy restaurants and talk, in passing, about making trades. While recent winter meetings have seen
a flurry of offseason activity, things are beginning sluggishly again this
season. Last year most of the
major moves were made later in the free agent season and this year is looking
the same. But plenty of teams are
looking to improve via the free agent market or trades. For a great breakdown of the free agent
market and a ranking of free agents from number 1 to number 175, check out Jeff
Passan’s article here. I’ll just
give a couple of thoughts about my top 10 free agents and where they could end
up.
1.
Josh
Hamilton- He’s the biggest offensive prize on the market, but also one of
the hardest to deal with. The years
of abuse drugs and alcohol took on his body make his body seem older than the
31 years it is. Still he’s a
former MVP who plays a premier position and has all 5 tools. But his past means he’s likely going to
be limited to a 4-5 year contract, as well as a move to right or left
field. Also, don’t expect to see
him run as much, as that’s how a lot of big guys get hurt. The traditional players in the free
agent market don’t seem to be looking at him. The Yankees want to get payroll under the luxury tax mark
for next year, the Red Sox might be re-building and the Phillies have too much
money promised to pitching to be able to afford him. Even last year’s big spenders the Los Angeles Dodgers have a
full outfield of expensive players (Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre
Ethier). Suitors for Hamilton
include the Mariners (who need some sort of offensive shot in the arm, but one
player may not do it), the Orioles (looking to build off last year’s success
and having a player of Hamilton’s caliber in left might keep them near the top
of the AL East), and the Milwaukee Brewers (who don’t seem to need him as much
with their stud offense clicking on all cylinders). Big League Stew breaks down those three options here. But the Mariners have trouble drawing
free agents, the Brewers don’t make much sense and Peter Angelos doesn’t like
spending Baltimore money on free agents.
So really this is wide open.
The Yankees need a new right fielder, but I don’t know that they want to
spend the money. The Angels could
use him with Torii Hunter departing, but they spent a ton last offseason. The Braves make a lot of sense with him
in left and Martin Prado moving to third for the retired Chipper Jones, but
they likely can’t afford him. I
think San Francisco could use him, but they likely don’t have the money
either. Maybe the White Sox decide
to spend again and put him in left or the Tigers decide to replace Delmon Young
with Hamilton. He could go
anywhere, that’s what makes him so intriguing. He’ll get a huge 7 figure deal most likely. The question is, which team wants him
bad enough to pay him the most and offer him 5+ years when most teams want to
keep it around 4.
2.
Zach
Greinke- The best pitcher on the market, Greinke is an interesting
case. It was said he couldn’t play
in big cities, but I’d say LA is pretty large. He was a Cy Young Winner in Kansas City, fantastic in
Milwaukee and strong with the Angels.
They want to re-sign him badly.
The Yankees need pitching, but outbidding others for his services will
likely put them over the $189 million luxury tax threshold that they’ve been
over the past 5 years. A huge cut
for the Yankees, a laughably high amount for most other teams. The Phillies have too much money tied
up in pitching. The Red Sox seem
to be cutting back, but they could really use him, so maybe they make a run at
him with all that salary off the books.
The Dodgers would love to add him and for them money is apparently no
object. The Rangers could afford
him and continue to make the Angels life in the AL West miserable. Or maybe the Tigers decide to go into
massive debt and take another “all in” run at a title. While other teams could definitely use
him to take a big step closer to the World Series (Cincinnati, St.
Louis, Washington, Milwaukee) they either don’t have the money or have too good
of pitching to justify the money he’d get. I think he will go to a major market team with lots of
cash. Think either LA club, the
Rangers, or possibly an Eastern dark horse like the Yanks or Red Sox.
3.
BJ Upton-
The second best hitter available comes with question marks. His effort is routinely questioned, his
AVG can be abysmal but he can also slug HR and swipe a ton of bags. Keeping him in center field seemed to
help the Rays settle him down, but he used to play second and could also play
left. Maybe the Yankees put him in
left and Ichiro in right. But they
could be outbid in their quest to stay below the luxury tax. Perhaps the Red Sox decide he’s worth
spending some of their newfound financial freedom towards, but they’ve been
burned by Rays outfielders before, and surer bets at that. There are mid-level financial clubs with
holes in the outfield (Atlanta, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Oakland) but they will
likely be outbid/not want to spend that kind of money on someone with Upton’s
background. The Angels or Rangers
make sense. Someone will pay a
little more than they think he’s worth, and that’s who will get him. The question is which player shows
up? The slugger/speedster or the
unhappy 200 hitter with gross lapses in effort.
4.
Anibal
Sanchez- A decent secondary option for teams that miss out on Greinke. He’s struggled in the past, but caught
on for the Tigers at the perfect time.
He’ll get overpaid based on his post season performance, but he could
have turned a corner and maybe is a better pitcher now. He’s got good command and his secondary
pitches looked great at the end of last year. Sanchez has the potential to be a steal or a bust. He’ll go to the team that thinks his
postseason was for real, they’ll offer him the most money and that likely means
a big market team. Any of the
Greinke suitors, as long as they didn’t get Greinke. Texas, both LA teams, maybe the Red Sox or Yankees.
5.
Hiroki
Kuroda- Very similar to Sanchez in the question factors, but different in
every other way. Sanchez could be
great or a bust. So you pay him
expecting something in the middle.
Kuroda is probably the most predictable pitcher on the market, and you are sure
to get someone slightly above average.
Likely the same teams in the Sanchez market will be in on the Kuroda
market. A mid-level team will
strike at someone, and Kuroda makes the most sense, as he’s a veteran with a
strong background of success. But
the most likely candidates are in Texas, LA, NY and Boston.
6.
Nick
Swisher- This one is a puzzler.
He was fantastic in four regular seasons in New York and abysmal in four
postseasons in New York. The
Yankees almost certainly won’t bring him back. But where will he go?
Plenty of teams could use him, but he’s not a spring chicken and doesn’t
excel at anything. He could hit
300 and slug 20 HR, but he could also hit 250 and hit 10. His defense in right is okay. He could be the guy to fall to a team
that can’t afford Hamilton or Upton.
Think Atlanta, San Fran, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Arizona. Maybe a club that did well last year that wants to add a veteran for depth:
Washington, Detroit, a return to Oakland. He could end up anywhere.
7.
Michael
Bourn- Washington is the front-runner here. They’ve lobbied for him, made public statements about him
and think he’s the perfect leadoff guy for their lineup. They will likely stay out of the
Hamilton and Upton races to save money for Bourn. The Braves will want to re-sign him, but they can’t outbid
the Nationals who have a lot of money.
Maybe another team makes a run at him (San Fran, Cincinnati, Baltimore),
but he’s likely staying in the NL East.
8.
Dan Haren-
The Angels have let him go. Most
think it’s to save money for signing Greinke. He’s a great pitcher.
But injuries and a loss of fastball velocity have made him more
hittable. He has the potential to
be an ace like he was in Oakland and Arizona, but those days could also be
behind him. I could see the
Rangers sweeping in to take him on, maybe the Yankees sell him on a longer deal
for less money or the Reds, Diamondbacks, or Tigers bring him in to put them
over the top. He’s a great pitcher
that could fall to a team with less money. Or a top flight team that missed on other options could
settle on him.
9.
Rafael
Soriano- He was fantastic in relief of Mariano last year. He closed in New York, replacing a
legend. That should make up for
concerns that the only places he’s closed (Atlanta, Tampa Bay) were less
intense. He’ll get good money as
the best closer on the free agent market.
(Technically Mariano Rivera is a free agent but he’s going back to the
Bronx). The market for a closer
has us looking at new teams that haven’t been on the list yet. Toronto is a possibility. So are the White Sox, Red Sox or
Tigers. Or maybe a team with a
closer offers him a lot to be a set up man or to fight for a closing job (Angels, Rangers). He’ll go to whoever offers him the most money.
10.
Mike
Napoli- He’s a bad defensive catcher.
He’s a bad defensive first baseman. He’s a great DH.
But he’s good enough to catch and play first, with his bat making up for
any deficiencies. He won’t hit for
a high AVG and will strikeout a ton.
He’ll also have a fantastic slugging percentage, on base percentage and
will give you HR and walks. The
Yankees need a catcher if they let Russell Martin go, but they won’t be crazy
about Napoli’s defense or price tag.
Maybe the White Sox replace Pierzynski with Napoli. He’s the best catching option
available, but again, he’s more of a part time catcher who should see plenty of
time DHing and occasional time at first.
The White Sox are more looking for a true catcher. And Adam Dunn has locked up the DH
position. The Rangers could
re-sign him. The Mets would love a
player like him, but can’t afford him.
The Nationals would be an interesting spot for him if they decide not to
re-sign Adam LaRoche, but they would lose a lot defensively. Maybe he plays first and is a backup
catcher in Milwaukee. That puts
Corey Hart back in right. And who
knows what the Dodgers will do.
Napoli is hard to place, but he’ll go to someone and get a lot of money
to do something.
And let’s not forget that there are always surprise
signings, trades that take teams out of the race for certain guys and anything
can happen. Who thought that
Albert Pujols would be an Angel or that Prince Fielder would be a Tiger at this
time last year? So we’ll wait and
see.
Keep checking back here in the offseason for big baseball
stories. And check out the
winner’s of the BBA awards at their page here. A lot of my picks matched up with what the final tally
was. Some of them didn’t. Always fun to hear the discussion. And if you get a chance, like my
Facebook page here. I’d really
appreciate it. Okay, more to come
soon!
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