So when it comes to making an All Star ballot I like to go
with the best option THIS SEASON at each individual position. I don’t like to reward past achievement
and don’t care about how popular a player is. I’m certainly not the only person to feel this way, but can
still lament the popularity contest that is the fan vote each season. I’m also not crazy about the way the
game is designed, but for more about the issues with the game and how to fix it
you can click on the link in my previous article, or read Jeff Passan’s 2012 article about how to fix the All Star Game. As I see it, major league baseball is one of the few
professional sports franchises that actually has an All Star game that people
want to watch. The Pro Bowl was
almost cancelled due to the apathy football fans felt towards it. The NBA All Star game has had low
ratings the past few years and the NHL requires their guys to show up and play
or risk a one game suspension for not being there. So the Mid-Summer classic is one of the few All Star Games
left that has any clout.
However the All Star game hasn’t been immune to fan
disinterest, suffering a drop in ratings the last few years. It’s doing better than the other All
Star games, but it is in no way completely safe from cancellation. Part of the issues the All Star game
faces are purely of baseball’s own creation. The novelty of seeing NL players facing AL players was
weakened with the introduction of inter-league play. In my opinion the biggest obstacle facing the All Star
Game’s relevance is that, but interleague play is Bud Selig’s baby and is also
fairly popular with the fans. My
distaste for it puts me squarely in the minority and so that obstacle is likely
going nowhere anytime soon. That
means the Mid Summer Classic will have to find a way to subsist in the midst of
losing it’s biggest draw, the novelty of seeing Justin Verlander face Matt Kemp
or Clayton Kershaw pitching to Josh Hamilton.
Bud Selig tried to bring some importance back to the game after
the 2002 debacle where the game ended in a tie. He came up with the asinine idea that the winner of the All
Star game would get home field advantage in the World Series. The player’s union agreed with little
coaxing, because the former concept of rotating between leagues each season was
also fairly arbitrary. (I guess
rewarding it to the team with the best record makes too much sense to
work). But the added weight of home field advantage has done little
to bring in more fans, and all the fans that watch the game regularly know that
it’s a dumb idea. Perhaps back in
the day when players stayed with one team their whole careers that could have
worked. But I doubt Jose Reyes,
the Mets representative last season, had much incentive to win the game because
he thought that he could be helping out the Phillies, the presumptive NL rep
for the World Series last season.
And with the way players move between teams and leagues each season,
there’s little reason to believe that they would really care who got home field
advantage. And even back in the
time I earlier referenced where players spent the majority of their careers
with one team, the true rivalries were inter-league. So if the Cardinals were likely going to the playoffs, why
would the rival Cubs want to do anything to help them out, even if they were
facing the Yankees or Orioles of another league? But the home field advantage rule is here for a while, and
there’s nothing we can do about it.
So with those issues firmly in place, I still try to do my best to put
together a good ballot of players so that at least part of the game is
entertaining and worth my watching.
Each year I take a lot of time to work on my All Star
ballot. It doesn’t matter as the
fan vote holds little sway (and it shouldn’t) and the managers are pigeonholed
into making certain decisions due to roster requirements and picking a player
from each team. I agree that you
should have to have a player from each team (otherwise we’d see a team of Red
Sox and Yankees play the Phillies) but I don’t try to fill out the bloated
lineups that the MLB actually requires.
So for this post, I’m listing one player at each position for each
league, and a couple alternates.
So that brings us to the way I try to elect my team. I look at the stats, but that’s not
always the best way to compare.
Some guys have lower AVG, but hit a ton of HR and drive in lots of runs
for their team, which makes them more valuable than another player at the same
position who hits for a higher AVG.
However, that’s not always better, as some don’t hit for a lot of power
but can still get on base and score runs.
In addition, you can’t compare all stats as equal. For example, some second basemen hit
for a low AVG but help out in other categories such as HR and RBI (Dan
Uggla). To overlook them because
of their low AVG isn’t fair.
However, some guys get lots of votes because they hit lots of home runs
and drive in a ton of guys, but have low average and bad defense (Dan Uggla). To elect them based on that and ignore
the other aspects of their game is also unfair. I'll call it the Dan Uggla rule because it seems
appropriate for this paragraph. So
the question is, is there a stat out there that compares players at the same
position taking into account their AVG, power, speed, defense and other
important aspects of the game?
The answer is….yes( of course it is…otherwise this article
would be on a long road to nowhere).
That stat is Wins Above Replacement, commonly referred to by WAR (as far
as the concept of commonality can refer to anything having to do with
sabermetrics). The idea behind WAR
(what is it good for?) is to try to summarize a player’s total contributions to
their team in one numbered statistic.
WAR is a stat used to show how many more wins a player in a certain position
would give a team verses a replacement level player, generally categorized as a
minor leaguer or bench player. So
the replacement level player is valued at 0, and a good player brings in a
positive WAR as opposed to someone who is not great at their position and would
bring in a negative WAR. It’s
considered a non-standardized statistic because there are multiple ways to
calculate it. Baseball Prospectus
and Fangraphs (in my opinion two of the best sabermetric websites out there)
both measure it differently.
Essentially, you add up all a players’ offensive stats,
factor in his defensive metrics, give different weights to different positions
(it’s harder to play shortstop than first base), and convert runs to Wins. 10 runs equal 1 win. You factor the runs and then what you
know about a player’s defense and his other offensive stats to get his WAR
number. 0 is what a replacement
level is worth and good players are worth more while bad ones are worth
less. Here’s an example of
different levels 2011 WAR measurements according to Baseball Prospectus:
Excellent: Jose
Bautista 10.3
Great: Hunter
Pence 5.2
Average: Gaby
Sanchez 2.0
Poor: Adam
Lind 0.5
Horrendous: Adam
Dunn -1.7
It’s not a perfect stat, as pitcher’s measurements are based
on IP, not games played. In
addition, people use different equations to measure defensive metrics and no
one has a good way to quantify the production of the replacement players. However for All Star selection, it’s
probably one of the best stats you can use, as it’s one of the only ones that compare
players in the same position. So
using that stat in addition to a look at each player’s stats is a good way to
pick the players you think should go to the Mid-Summer classic. And that’s what I’ve done below.
(For a look at one of the equations used to measure WAR
[they are all different] you can click here. For a more in depth look at WAR, check out the breakdown on Big League Stew.)
National
League
C: Yadier
Molina STL- This one was tough for me. He’s got a 2.9 WAR, the second best amongst catchers. The best WAR is 3.4 for backstops, and
that belongs to Carlos Ruiz, the other guy I considered. Ruiz leads all MLB catchers with a 351
AVG. His WAR is the best and he’s
a great defensive catcher. He’s first
in RBI in the league and tied for first in R. He’s tied with the guy I chose, Yadier Molina. Molina is second in RBI, one behind
Ruiz. They have the same number of
HR. And he’s second in the league
in AVG. Even though his WAR is
second to Ruiz, I went with him because he’s a better defensive catcher, who
can completely shut down the running game. While Ruiz has a good arm, no one compares with Molina right
now. And, ironically, Molina is
first among all catchers in the MLB with 7 SB. So the speed (which came out of nowhere) and the superior
defense (though Ruiz is a good defensive catcher) is the difference for me
here. The current vote leader in
the NL is Buster Posey. But
Posey’s WAR is 5th in the league (amongst catchers). He has the same number of HR and is
right behind these two guys in RBI and R.
But he has fewer hits (Molina leads with 76), and a lower AVG. He’s not as good a defender. He’s more popular because he recently
won a Rookie of the Year award and his numbers aren’t bad. But I think Ruiz and Molina are better
choices, and this vote looks like it’ll go down to the wire.
1B: Joey Votto CIN- This one was easy. Votto has the highest WAR in
baseball. He leads the majors in
AVG (360), OBP% and is second in SLG%.
He’s slugged 13 HR, has 45 RBI and 46 R. He’s quickly overtaking Josh Hamilton for the title of best
hitter in baseball this year. With
one MVP already under his belt, he’s signed a long-term deal with the Reds and
hopes to continue anchoring that club with plenty of talent for years to
come. I think he’s got a
legitimate shot to win another MVP and should absolutely be the National
League’s representative in the All Star game this season. Luckily he’s the current leader in
votes (as of 6/21) and should be a lock to start the game in Kauffman Stadium
this July.
2B: Aaron
Hill ARI- The Diamondbacks second baseman is tied with Dan Uggla with the
second highest WAR out of all second basemen (2.4), but first in the NL. He’s tied with Brandon Phillips for the
third highest AVG at 287 (the Astros Jose Altuve leads, hitting 311), and is
second in the league in HR with 10, one behind league leader (for second
basemen) Dan Uggla. Uggla is the
current vote leader in the NL, and he wouldn’t be a bad choice with the same
WAR. But with Hill having more
hits, better defense and 6 SB to Uggla’s 0, I think he’s got to be the winner
here (and that’s coming from a Braves fan).
SS: Starlin
Castro CHC- I think he’s the obvious choice at a weak position. He’s got the second highest positional WAR
in the league, behind Jed Lowrie of the Astros. This is an example of how WAR sometimes doesn’t work. I have no idea why Lowrie’s WAR is
higher than Castro’s. Maybe it has
something to do with his defense.
And Lowrie is certainly playing well. But Castro has the highest AVG of all NL shortstops and is
second in the NL in stolen bases with 16 (Dee Gordon’s 22 is fairly ludicrous
and is obviously the tops in the senior circuit). He’s also first among NL shortstops in RBI and Hits. He trails Rafael Furcal who recently
overtook Troy Tulowitzki for first in the fan voting. And that’s a perfect example of why the fan vote shouldn’t
count for much because Tulo has played in only 47 games. Furcal is playing pretty well, but
outside of leading all shortstops in R, his numbers are inferior to Castro’s in
all areas. He’s probably a better
defender, but those two stats aren’t enough for him to be the leader in my
opinion. Castro is young and makes
some bonehead plays in the field, but he’s got more power, hits for a higher
AVG and is stealing more bases than his counterpart in St. Louis. He could still make the team, but he
might be a backup, when I think he should start.
3B: David
Wright NYM- Another easy one, as Wright has the second highest WAR in the
MLB at 4.3. He’s having a monster
season, leading the NL hot corner in AVG (357), R (47) and is third in RBI and
SB. He’s anchoring a young,
overachieving team in New York and is playing lights out defense. He contributes in every single category
at the plate and is a strong defender.
He’s the vote leader, and should be. Wright will be the starter for the NL, and is on track to
have one of the best seasons of his life.
OF: Matt
Kemp LAD- Kemp was the best player in baseball not named Josh Hamilton
before he got hurt. He was easily
the hottest hitter in the national league and was trying to make good on his
promise to be the first 50-50 player in baseball (that’s 50 HR and 50 steals in
one season). He was on a good pace
for most of it with 12 HR, 28 RBI and 30 R in only 36 games. He was off on the SBs with only 2, but
when you forecast that you’re trying to swipe 50, pitchers make it pretty tough
to run on them. However an injury
and then a setback has kept him out of the running for a very long time. But unlike other players who haven’t
played much this season (Troy Tulowitzki) Kemp was so hot before he went down
that he has to be considered in the running. His 2.3 WAR at this point is still 16th best, and
he’s missed the majority of the season (yes that number goes down as you play
less). It is currently the 9th
best in the league. So if he’s
healthy he has to be put in the game.
He’s currently the lead vote getter in the NL amongst outfielders, and I
think that’s justified.
OF: Ryan
Braun MIL- The reigning MVP is having a fantastic follow up season. He’s hoping to make people forget his
newsworthy offseason, where he got out of an MLB suspension for PEDS on what
looks like a technicality. He was
the first player to win an appeal against MLB, but it looks like it may have
hurt his popularity even more (although in an attempt to win the title for most
petulant, MLB fired the arbitrator who heard the case which has rankled some
fans, this one included). But you
can’t argue with the way he’s played this year. His 4.3 WAR is the best amongst all outfielders in the major
leagues. He’s hitting 320 with 20
HR, 52 RBI and 47 R. He’s also
stolen 13 bases, while playing a very solid defense. Braun has been one of the best hitters in baseball the last
few years and is keeping it going this season. He’s currently fourth in the voting behind the guy I just
wrote about, the guy I’m about to write about and Carlos Beltran. No offense to Beltran, but I think
Braun belongs in this game more.
OF: Melky
Cabrera SF- Melky is having an out of control season. He leads the majors with 102 hits
playing the corner outfield positions for the Giants. He can play all three positions, though he’s played no games
in center this year and 62 games in left.
Still, he’s a valuable piece for an All Star team based on his outfield
flexibility. But that’s not how a
vote for players. I look at the
numbers. His 2.9 WAR is 5th
best amongst NL outfielders. He
leads all outfielders in the MLB with a 355 AVG while chipping in 6 HR, 35 RBI,
49 R and 10 SB. He can hit
anywhere in the order and has a very strong 13% K rating. (He only strikes out 13% of his at
bats). A lot of people think it’s
a fluke (though after a career year for the Royals last season I think that’s
unlikely) and they don’t like his defense. But as far as left fielders go he’s pretty solid, even above
average. You can’t fault him for
his bad play in center in the past, as he hasn’t played center field at all
this season. And since this is the
only season that matters to me (as far as All Star voting) the MLB hits leader
pretty much has to be in the game.
He’s just jumped into third place in the NL OF voting, and it looks like
those spots will be close till the end.
Bench: I’m
going to add 5 bench spots to each team.
This is based purely on numbers, not on positions. But if it’s a tie between two hitters,
I’ll likely take a second catcher before a 6th outfielder.
1. Michael Bourn ATL: The
man with the 4th best WAR in the majors deserves to go to Kauffman
Stadium. The Braves speedy center
fielder has played in every game this year and is one of the best leadoff men
in the game. He’s 4th
in the league in R, second in SB (20) and is hitting 313 with a 359 OBP. He plays a very good centerfield and is
probably the best base stealer in the game. In a year with weaker outfielders, he’d be a shoo-in to
start. As it is, I think he should
be a reserve player.
2. Carlos Ruiz PHI: I
already gave a strong rundown of the Phillies’ catcher’s year and why I almost
picked him to start. He should
certainly be on the club as a reserve.
3. Martin Prado ATL: Yeah
I know, this is getting a little Braves heavy. But try as I might, I couldn’t get around this pick. He’s got the 6th best WAR in
the league and is one of the best number 2 hitters in the game. He is the Braves’ starting left
fielder, but can also play 2B, 3B, 1B and (in a pinch) SS. He’s likely going to get the nod from
Tony LaRussa anyway due to his position eligibility and the fact that he’s
hitting 316 with 5 HR, 28 RBI, 42 R and 8 SB. Unlike the Commissioner’s office, if it makes too much
sense, I don’t run from it.
4. Carlos Beltran STL: The
current number two man in the NL OF fan vote, Beltran is having a fantastic
year. He’s second in the NL with
19 HR (Braun has 20…. interestingly second in the NL only has the buying power
of 8th overall). He’s
also second in the league with 53 RBI not to mention a 310 AVG with 43 R and 7
SB. His 2.8 WAR is solid, and he
belongs in the game, though I not as a starter in my opinion.
5. Andrew McCutchen PIT: Well
what do you know I picked 7 outfielders.
It’s a very strong year in the NL grass this season. And now that Martin Prado pick looks a
lot better since he backs up the entire infield. I’m not too worried about this roster actually working, as
the real roster will have another 74 players on it. Were I to keep going, I’d be looking at A.J Ellis (catcher),
Dan Uggla (second baseman…and another Brave….FYI as far as WAR goes all three Atlanta
outfielders have WARs in the top 10 of the league), Jed Lowrie (SS), Chase
Headley (3B) and more outfielders (Andre Ethier, Matt Holliday, Carlos
Gonzalez). But for now, let’s
focus on McCutchen. Andrew has a
WAR of 3.0, 8th in the league.
He’s hitting 500 over his last 6 games and can do anything you need on a
baseball field. He’s hitting an
incredible 345 with a 404 OBP.
He’s got 13 HR, 45 RBI, 39 R and 14 SB for a Pittsburgh team that is in
the middle of the NL Central race.
He’s a fantastic, exciting player that is going to be the nucleus for a
young Pirates team that is coming closer and closer to competing (last year at
this time they were first in the NL Central). The crazy thing is, last week I leave him off this
ballot. But after the week he had,
it would be insane not to list him.
And that’s the trick with this game. Things can change so quickly. Right now, this is my team. But in the next few weeks before the game A.J Ellis could
hit his way into the catcher conversation, or Paul Goldschmidt could slug his
way into a reserve spot backing up Joey Votto or maybe Adam LaRoche or Bryan
LaHair makes some noise. Things
can change before the game happens.
And with the size of these rosters, you’ll likely see all these guys in
the game, though not all of them will play.
SP: R.A.
Dickey NYM- Yeah I figured I may as well throw in 3 starters and 2
relievers. Dickey’s 2.5 WAR is
tied for 6th in the NL.
I’m not sure what else he’d have to do to be first, but he’s had a
fantastic season. He’s got the
best record in baseball at 11-1 (the 11 Wins are best in the majors). His 2.31 ERA is among the top 10 in the
league. He’s third in the league
in strikeouts, had back to back one hitters and is the best pitcher in the NL
right now. You can make arguments
for other guys, but I think he deserves to start the All Star game.
SP: Matt
Cain SF- Cain’s 2.8 WAR is the 4th highest in the NL. He leads the league in IP, has a 2.27
ERA and a perfect game. His 9-2
record is great, especially on a team that can’t score runs. I think there are a ton of good
pitchers in the NL this season.
It’s hard to decide who should start. But if it’s not Dickey, it’s this guy who is often
overlooked playing out west and living in the shadow of teammate Tim Lincecum. For years scouts have said Cain has
better stuff. We are seeing it
this season.
SP: Stephen
Strasburg WAS- The most heralded pitching prospect of all time is already a
star in D.C. He’s 9-1 with a 2.46
ERA this season. He also leads the
league with 110 Ks in only 84 IP.
He’s got a tidy 1.04 WHIP and a 214 BAA. His 2.9 WAR is third in the league behind teammate Gio
Gonzalez and Zach Greinke. But
Gonzalez still walks too many guys, has a higher ERA and has incredible luck on
balls in play. I’m not saying he’s
not having a great season and shouldn’t be on the team, but I’m picking
Strasburg over him. And while
Greinke is also great, he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers, ERA or dominance
of hitters that Strasburg possesses.
There are a ton of good pitchers who should be in the game. Among them the three I’ve listed,
Gonzalez, Greinke, James McDonald, Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Cole
Hamels. And I bet they will all
make it, since the rosters are enormous.
But if I can only pick three, these are my guys.
RP: Craig
Kimbrel ATL- The other reason WAR is an iffy stat is that it hurts
relievers. It’s not wrong, a man
who only throws an inning a game can only do so much to help his club. But Craig Kimbrel of the Braves has the
highest WAR of all relievers in baseball this year, and it’s only 1.5. Still good, but for these guys I have
to look at other numbers. Kimbrel has been lights out. His 21 Saves lead the league. He’s got a 1.33 ERA and 44 Ks in 27
IP. His 129 BAA is infinitesimal
and his 0.84 WHIP shows that he’s dominant. He’s easily the best reliever in
the NL this season, and WAR says he’s the best reliever in baseball.
RP: Joel
Hanrahan PIT- This was a little tough, but I think this is the right answer. According to WAR, Aroldis Chapman
should have been my next choice.
But he just took over the reliever job and has 8 Saves. In addition he blew 2 in a row last
week. We are rewarding the best
seasons so far. And that has to go
to Hanrahan of the Pirates in my opinion.
His 19 Saves are third in the league, behind Kimbrel and Santiago
Casilla of the Giants. But his
2.25 ERA is better, as is his 163 BAA.
He really does shut people down at the end of games. With 34 Ks in 28 IP, he has a bit of
that unstoppable mentality to him and he’s kept the Pirates in the Central
race. I don’t understand why his
WAR is 0. In this case the WAR is
good for absolutely nothing (you knew it was coming). He’s a great reliever,
and belongs in the All Star game.
Up next…AL All Star Ballot
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