Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
Seattle Mariners: The
next team in the AL West (alphabetically) is the Seattle Mariners.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Justin
Smoak
2B Dustin
Ackley
SS Brendan
Ryan
3B Chone
Figgins
LF Mike
Carp
CF Franklin
Gutierrez
RF Ichiro
Suzuki
C Miguel
Olivo
DH Jesus
Montero
Projected Starting
Rotation:
Felix Hernandez
Jason Vargas
Hisashi Iwakuma
Hector Noesi
Blake Beavan
Projected Batting
Order:
3B Chone
Figgins
2B Dustin
Ackley
RF Ichiro
Suzuki
DH Jesus
Montero
1B Justin
Smoak
C Miguel
Olivo
CF Franklin
Gutierrez
LF Mike
Carp
SS Brendan
Ryan
The Seattle Mariners finished dead last in the AL West last
season with the second worst record in the league. They’ve had pretty good pitching the last few years, but
also terrible hitting. Part of
that is because big hitting free agents don’t want to play in Safeco. But this team has been cobbling
together rosters for a while, never really fully committing to re-building, but
also never putting out stellar teams that can make it to the playoffs. Once again, this season looks the same
for Seattle. They have lots of
talent on the field, but it’s unproven.
They hope the big acquisition of Jesus Montero can give this club the
big bat they need. If they finally
put together some offense, they might be able to pull themselves out of the
basement in the AL West.
Ichiro led this team in AVG again last year, as he has every
year for the past 400 years.
However, he had a down season (for him) in 2011, failing to reach 200
hits and staying under 300 for the first time ever. He still had a good season for a mere mortal, but this god
of hitting is not pleased with a 272 AVG and 184 hits. He still stole 40 bases and scored 80
runs at the top of this anemic lineup.
But they’ve decided to make a change this season. Manager Eric Wedge has decided to move
Ichiro down to third in the batting order. For years Ichiro has put on a show in batting practice,
launching monster homer runs into the far reaches of Safeco Field. When asked why he doesn’t do that in
games, Ichiro said he could hit 20-30 homers in a season…if he was allowed to hit
260. But he was paid to get on
base and score runs. So we’ll see
if any of that changes this season.
His career high in homers came in 2005 when he hit 15. And of course saying you can hit 25
home runs and actually hitting 25 home runs are two different things. But hitting third in that order should
give us another season of plus batting average (I’m betting around 300, maybe
not 320), and 70+ RBI. If he can
get to 20 HRs, then maybe 85+ RBI are possible. And while he may not score 100 R this season, with his speed
(40 SBs last year) and his ability to get on base, I’d say 75+ R are possible
with 30 SB. If this experiment
works for the Mariners, he could be driving in runs, while getting on base
himself, stealing a base to get into scoring position and then scoring when the
middle of the order bats drive him in, even if they just hit singles. That’s the hope for this club. We’ll see if it works. Having runners on base has never been
the issue for this club. Having
big bats drive them in was the issue.
Miguel Olivo led the team with 19 HR and 62 RBI last season. Neither of those numbers were bad,
especially for a catcher. But
neither should be leading a team.
Olivo’s plus power is nice, though his AVG is less than stellar (224). He’ll likely hit 6th in this
lineup. First baseman Justin Smoak
should hit in front of him. His 15
HR were a positive sign last year.
He’s young and they want him to succeed. But his AVG left a lot to be desired (234) and they hope a
higher AVG will bring more RBI.
Left fielder Mike Carp is a similar story, though he’s had less
experience in the majors. However
his 276 AVG last season was a good sign.
He played in 79 games, his most in the majors. That 276 AVG came with 12 HR and 46 RBI. He played well enough to win the
starting left fielder job, and they hope that a full season can see that AVG
stay up near 300 and maybe more ABs could see 20+ HRs. He’ll probably hit in the lower half of
the lineup to begin the season, but they hope that he can hit himself higher up
into a middle of the order slot. While
there is hope for those young players and hope that Ichiro will step up in his
new batting slot, the one thing they hope is a sure thing is the big bat of
Jesus Montero. While his major
league experience is limited, in 18 games last season he made a grand audition
hitting 328 with 4 HR and 12 RBI.
They traded away a talented young pitcher to get him, and they hope that
he can finally anchor this lineup and bring the power bat that they’ve been
sorely lacking. He’ll be expected
to drive in the hitters at the top of this lineup, which will likely be third
baseman Chone Figgins and second baseman Dustin Ackley. Ackley was a rookie in the 2011 season
and played well in his limited time.
In 90 games, he hit 273 with 6 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SBs, and 39 R. They liked how he played, and it was
doubly impressive since he spent the beginning of the year in the minors
learning how to play second base.
He’ll likely hit second of for this club, unless Figgins struggles at
the top of the lineup, in which case he could lead off. Figgins, formerly a tremendous leadoff
hitter for the Angels, really struggled last season. Injury limited him to 81 games, but in a half season of work
he hit an abysmal 188 with 1 HR, 15 RBI, 24 R and 11 SB. The power doesn’t really matter with
him, but they desperately need him to hit better than 188. They want him to take the leadoff job
from the All Star Ichiro, and need him to return to his All Star ways. His last season in LA, saw a 298 AVG,
42 SBs and 114 R. In his one
healthy season with Seattle he hit only 259 with 62 R, though he did still
steal 42 bases. His numbers from
last season stretched out over a full season show him still declining with 22
SBs, and 48 R. They need him to
get on base and score runs. If he
can, then this team could improve on its offensive woes. If not, then they will struggle. Because beyond Figgins and Ackley, the
only hitter left is Brendan Ryan who is a soft batted, strong gloved
shortstop. And this season they
may finally have some decent hitters in the middle of the lineup. But those hitters can only drive guys
in if those guys get on base. When
you move your best hitter to the middle of the lineup, other guys have to step
up in front of him to do his job.
If not, then this lineup will continue to struggle to score runs, just
in a different way than it has in the past.
The Mariners’ pitching is built around Felix Hernandez. The former Cy Young Winner led the team
with 14 Wins, a 3.47 ERA, 222 Ks and 232 IP. It wasn’t quite as strong as his Cy Young effort in 2010 but
14 wins on this club is pretty good.
And while his ERA was good, it wasn’t as low as the Mariners would have
liked. His 248 BAA showed that he
was hittable and his 1.22 WHIP was also a bit of a relapse, though not bad at
all. He’s still the King, but
they’d be happy if he made another run at a Cy Young. After Hernandez, Doug Fister and Michael Pineda were the
next strong pitchers on this staff.
The Mariners build around pitching, because hitters don’t fare well in
Safeco. But with both gone, the
Mariners hope they have a strong enough nucleus to contend now and think
they’ve gotten some solid investments for the future. Jason Vargas will be the number 2 man on this staff and he
pitched decently last season. His
10-13 record wasn’t where he wanted it to be, but it’s what can be expected
with a 4.25 ERA and 260 BAA. He
doesn’t strike out too many guys and they’d like to see him induce weaker
contact. But his 201-inning effort
last season was much appreciated, and they’d love to see that again. They wish he’d develop into more than
an innings eater, but they hope with their improved offense and the new
pitchers they got for the back end of the rotation they’ll be okay with one ace
and a number two man who only eats innings. The last three starters in this rotation are relative
newcomers. Iwakuma is a Japanese
pitcher, who played well enough to get signed by an MLB team. While he doesn’t project to be a star,
the Mariners hope the friendly confines of Safeco will help him to be effective. Hector Noesi (acquired with Montero in
the Pineda trade), has been a highly touted youngster in the Yankees farm
system for a while. He pitched in
30 games for the Yanks last year, starting 2. Overall he went 2-2 in 56 IP with a 4.47 ERA and 45 Ks. He pitched mainly in relief, but they
hope with more ML experience his 286 BAA and 1.51 WHIP will come down. This season will be his first as a full
time starter. And the 5th
starter on this club will likely be Blake Beavan. Beavan started 15 games for the Mariners last season, going
5-6 with a 4.27 ERA. He’s another
rookie who survived his first year in the majors despite a 278 BAA. They hope that he’ll improve with a
full spring preparing to start for the Mariners. If he struggles Charlie Furbush is waiting in the wings, but
he really struggled last season with an ERA north of 5. They really don’t expect too much out
of the back of this rotation, but hope that they can keep the team in games. The bullpen looks okay with Brandon
League as the closer and George Sherrill back there in middle relief. But with other unproven arms in
that bullpen, the Mariners hope the friendly confines of their home park will
shelter these pitchers and help them find their way.
2012 Prediction…The Mariners have had weak hitting and
strong pitching the last few years.
After a weak 2011, they traded away two of their better arms in hopes
that the returns they got will make them a better team sooner rather than
later. They think one ace, one
innings eater, and three newcomers with upside can subsist in a pitchers park
and learn how to pitch in the majors.
They also hope that a new power bat in the DH slot will be what they
need to score some runs. They have
guys who can get on, and they finally hope a new role for Ichiro and a push
from Montero will get those guys in.
I like what the Mariners did in the offseason. But I don’t think it will be anywhere near good enough to
make the playoffs. The AL West
will be a two-team race between the Rangers and Angels, and I think a good goal
for the Mariners this season is to try to be 500 or better.
Up next…Texas Rangers.
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